McCovey Chronicles - 2013 MLB Draft roundupWe want to continue to create opportunities for payroll flexibility.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50879/mcc-fav.png2013-06-18T10:21:47-07:00http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/rss/stream/41014692013-06-18T10:21:47-07:002013-06-18T10:21:47-07:00Giants sign Christian Arroyo for slot value
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<figcaption>Chung Sung-Jun</figcaption>
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<p>Like, exactly slot value.</p> <p>The Giants <a target="new" href="https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/347033023994269697">signed first-round pick Christian Arroyo on Tuesday</a>. The recommended slot value for the #25 pick was $1,866,500. The Giants signed Arroyo for $1,866,500.</p>
<p>I don't know if you remember the Buster Posey negotiations, but there were actually Buster Posey negotiations. There were pre-draft rumors that Posey wasn't going to sign for less than $12 million, and they might have contributed to him slipping to the Giants at #5. And the signing deadline was approaching ... slowly ... slowly ... slowly ... without Posey signing. When's Posey going to sign? When's Posey going to sign? When's Posey going to sign?</p>
<p>Posey signed. But there was stress. There used to be a lot of stress for this stuff. And considering that the Pirates didn't get Mark Appel last year, there still can be. With the punitive draft rules in place now that strongly discourage teams for overpaying, these things go a lot quicker.</p>
<p>The Giants now have their first two picks in the fold, as Ryder Jones spurned Stanford and signed for $880,000 last week. The real drama will come with the late-round picks who were drafted below where they were expected to go, like 16th-rounder Jonah Arenado and 31st-rounder John Riley, both of whom were in Baseball America's top-500 list. If you're interested in that sort of <i>sturm and drang</i> of who will or won't sign, <a target="new" href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/8/4410732/giants-2013-draft-picks-signings">this thread is filled</a> with people who know what they're talking about.</p>
<p>Welcome, Christian! Watch out for the mallet fingers.</p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/18/4442160/giants-sign-christian-arroyo-draftGrant Brisbee2013-06-15T11:24:36-07:002013-06-15T11:24:36-07:00Giants draftees in the College World Series
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<figcaption>Ronald Martinez</figcaption>
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<p>There are two of them. So buckle up?</p> <p>You don't care about the College World Series. You want to care about the College World Series. You made a list of things you want to do, and the College World Series is on it, right behind eating more kale. But you don't care about the College World Series.</p>
<p>I care! And one of the things that helped me care was figuring out which teams had some of the Giants' recent draftees. The Series kicks off at noon Pacific, and here are the teams with the potential Giants prospects.</p>
<p><b>Mississippi State vs. Oregon State</b> - noon, Saturday, ESPN2<br> There are no Giants draftees on these teams. We do not care about these teams. Though if you want to stretch it, you can pretend it's Will Clark vs. Andrew Susac.</p>
<p><b>Indiana vs. Louisville</b> - 5 p.m., Saturday, ESPN<br> There are no Giants draftees on these teams. We do not care about these teams. Though if you want to stretch it, you can pretend it's Jake Dunning vs. Adam Duvall.</p>
<p><b>North Carolina vs. North Carolina State</b> - noon, Sunday, ESPN2<br> There are no Giants draftees on these teams. We do not care about these teams. This is kind of getting ridiculous. Though if you want to stretch it, you can pretend it's ... Brion Treadway? ... vs. Eric Surkamp.</p>
<p><b>UCLA vs. LSU</b> - 5 p.m., Sunday, ESPN2<br> There are Giants draftees on these teams! We care!</p>
<p>Ty Ross is LSU's catcher, and he's a glove-first prospect. He kind of hit .213 with an aluminum bat this year. But you can tune in and watch those smooth, smooth hands.</p>
<p>Nick Vander Tuig is a starting pitcher for UCLA, and he's one of the more interesting pitchers the Giants drafted this year. His profile makes him seem like a Joe Blanton-type -- location and command of different pitches is more his thing rather than velocity.</p>
<p>He's not pitching on Sunday.</p>
<p>So tune into the College World Series to watch a 12th-round catcher frame pitches and throw down to second base.</p>
<p>Oh, and that game is opposite the Giants game against the Braves on Sunday night.</p>
<p>...</p>
<p>This seemed like a much better idea when I started it. But on Tuesday, Vander Tuig should pitch! We don't know exactly when until UCLA wins or loses, but it'll be on Tuesday.</p>
<p>This has been a College World Series preview as it relates to the Giants. You still don't care about the College World Series. I've failed, everybody. :(</p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/15/4433502/college-world-series-schedule-times-san-francisco-giants-draftGrant Brisbee2013-06-10T19:00:06-07:002013-06-10T19:00:06-07:002013 MLB Draft: The reviews are in
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<figcaption>Chung Sung-Jun</figcaption>
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<p>The reviewers just don't appreciate the avant-garde like we do, apparently.</p> <p>The Giants nabbed 10 of Baseball America's top 200 prospects. That's good! They didn't get anyone in the top 100. That's ... less good. It was an odd draft for the Giants, as they used their first two picks on players widely perceived to be second-to-fifth-round talents. Baseball America, for example, had eight of the Giants' subsequent picks ranked higher than second-rounder Ryder Jones. The Giants were either seeing through the matrix, or they were writing <i>Matrix: Revolutions</i> and telling everyone it was going to be <i>Blade Runner</i>.</p>
<p>The draftniks overwhelmingly figured it was the latter. First, from <a target="new" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post/_/id/1008/law-complete-nl-draft-breakdown">Keith Law</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This was my least favorite draft class this year, as they took only one player I rated in the top 100 in this draft class: first-rounder Christian Arroyo (25), whom I ranked 99th overall as a potential average regular at second base. He has more upside than their 2011 first-rounder Joe Panik did, due to his youth and better swing.</p>
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<p>Well, shoot. From <a target="new" href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/10/4414652/2013-mlb-draft-national-league-west-summary-and-review-sickels">John Sickels</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Giants are well-known for having a draft board that doesn't look much like everyone else's. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but on paper this group has some things to prove. Arroyo has a very solid bat but most people don't think he can remain in the middle infield; the Giants disagree. Jones has so-so tools but a good performance record that put him in the 5-8 round range for most.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And while Baseball America doesn't have their draft grades or NL roundup yet, they did <a target="new">have a couple notes</a> about the Giants' first-rounder.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A bit of a reach here for the Giants. Arroyo is an undersized grinder, but the Giants like his ability to hit.</p>
<p>...</p>
<p>Still, few scouts see him as a shortstop in the big leagues. Those who don’t think he can catch see him as a tweener, not quick enough for second and not powerful enough for third base.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Chris Crawford reviewed the team's picking philosophy more than the specific selections, and <a href="http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/process-grades-day-one/">here's what he had to say</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>San Francisco Giants — Just because I projected the Giants to take Christian Arroyo doesn’t mean it’s an endorsement. Then, in the second round, they took a guy I had a fifth round grade on in Ryder Jones. So in the first and second round, they got third and fifth round players. Not the goal, pretty easy fail.</p>
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<p>Or, as he put it in the middle of the draft:</p>
<p> </p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>There's still a ton, a ton, of good players left in this draft. You can thank the Giants for that. That was mean. I'm sorry.</p>
— Chris Crawford (@CrawfordChrisV) <a href="https://twitter.com/CrawfordChrisV/status/342851858651566080">June 7, 2013</a>
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<p>And McC's own Fla-Giant <a target="new" href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/9/4412738/my-knee-jerk-and-semi-superficial-review-of-the-giants-2013-draft">gave his thoughts here</a>. My favorite quote:</p>
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<p>I initially disliked this pick and now I hate it.</p>
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<p>Yep.</p>
<p>After a few days to reflect my brief, useless thoughts:</p>
<p>1. I'm pretty okay with Christian Arroyo at #25 if the Giants really believed in his bat and ability to stay at short, but I haven't heard anything that's made me the slightest bit optimistic about Ryder Jones.</p>
<p>2. My third-favorite pick is ninth-rounder D.J. Snelten, if only because he's gigantic and left-handed. Unfortunately, <a target="new" href="http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2012/07/q-and-2013-prospect-lhp-dj-snelten.html">anonymous hates him</a> :(.</p>
<p>3. My second-favorite pick is fifth-rounder Daniel Slania because he's shaped like a 6'7" <a target="new" href="http://www.mastersunbound.com/box%20art/MOTU-BA-ram_man_ill.jpg">Ram Man</a>.</p>
<p>4. My favorite pick is 36th-rounder Grant Goodman because he has a great first name and he's the first player from my high school to be drafted since <a target="new" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?key_school=6b0f574d&exact=1&query_type=key_school">Kaazim Summerville</a>, whom I probably made up.</p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/10/4417024/2013-mlb-draft-grades-san-francisco-giantsGrant Brisbee2013-06-08T11:26:29-07:002013-06-08T11:26:29-07:00Open draft thread, day 3
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<p>You probably aren't going to care about who gets drafted. But you can root for Giants to take Sicnarf Loopstok. Beg, even.</p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/8/4409592/open-draft-thread-day-3Grant Brisbee2013-06-07T16:09:05-07:002013-06-07T16:09:05-07:00Giants go all college on second day of draft
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<p>At least one of them will be worth arguing about in a couple years. Imagine that. </p> <p>After tabbing two high-school hitters with their first two picks of the MLB draft, the Giants went with all college players on day two, taking five pitchers and three hitters. The list:</p>
<p>3rd round - Chase Johnson, RHP, Cal Poly<br> 4th - Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford<br> 5th - Daniel Slania, RHP, Notre Dame<br> 6th - Nick Vander Tuig, RHP, UCLA<br> 7th - Brandon Bednar, SS, Florida Gulf Coast<br> 8th - Tyler Horan, LF, Virginia Tech<br> 9th - Donald Sneltan, LHP, Minnesota<br> 10th - Tyler Rogers, RHP, Austin Peay St.</p>
<p>We talked about Johnson (whom Baseball America ranked #183 on their top-500 list) <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/7/4406912/mlb-draft-2013-giants-chase-johnson-third-round-pick" target="new">here</a>. He supposedly was a closer for Cal Poly, and then he ... wasn't, even though his stuff didn't decline and he could still get outs. It's like his coach was rapunzeling him or something, trying to protect him from the scary baseball world.</p>
<p>When the Giants picked Ryder Jones (BA #197), I had a note about his Stanford commitment because I've always been fascinated by the "Stanford Swing." As in, I don't get why recruits keep going to Stanford. Well, okay, I get why most of them do, but I'm talking about the super-high-profile guys who are very likely to play in the majors. The coaches at Stanford teach a specific swing, the story goes, and it's not something that translates to pro ball or wooden bats. There just <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Mhbcw" target="new">haven't been a lot of successful hitters coming out of Stanford</a>.</p>
<p>Well, sure, Ryan Garko.</p>
<p>That written, Brian Ragira (BA #142) is an interesting prospect:</p>
<center> <iframe src="http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=25489401&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe><br><br><p><iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/LXLCJkf1wFU?rel=0" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Tiny stride! That's all I got. That and he can hit really well when Coasters songs are playing.</p>
<p>Daniel Slania (BA #153) is instantly one of my favorite prospects, if only because he's built like Ben Grimm.</p>
<center> <iframe src="http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=26752911&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> </center>
<p><br>Neat camera angle, Notre Dame. But around :35 in that video, there's a nasty running fastball that got my attention. And he's also flashing a whatsit pitch in this video about 18 seconds in:</p>
<center> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Vm8HuTfx5eY?rel=0" frameborder="0"></iframe> </center>
<p><br>No idea. But I like it. Here's what <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/5/4398822/2013-mlb-draft-giants-mock-draft">ESPN's Chris Crawford </a>had to say about him:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Slania has a big fastball, hitting 97 on several occasions and sitting mostly in the mid 90’s. He’ll also throw a slider and curve, with the latter profiling as the better pitch. Some believe that Slania could start because of his size, but I actually think it’s a detriment and profiles best as a bullpen arm. He also doesn’t have the cleanest arm action, so I’d take him in the first three rounds and see if I can fast track his heat into my bullpen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Let's see, Nick Vander Tuig (BA #145) is a righty from UCLA who can throw in the low-90s:</p>
<center> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/6ipjkw9kwgA?rel=0" frameborder="0"></iframe> </center>
<p><br>Brandon Bednar (BA #262) doesn't have a lot of video on the webs, but MLB.com offers this scouting report:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>He has a strong arm and is good enough defensively to handle shortstop. Bednar's plus speed could help him run down balls in the outfield and make him a fit as a super-utility player. His future role will depend on his bat, which is not as advanced as his glove. Bednar has a quick, line-drive swing, allowing him to make a lot of contact.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tyler Horan (BA #293) is another big dude who likes to hit and do fielding drills while obnoxiously great bumper jams play in the background:</p>
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<p><br> Donald Snelten (BA #143) is a 6'7" left-handed pitcher from Minnesota, and here's his scouting report from MLB.com:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Snelten's fastball sits in the low-90s and he regularly touches 94 mph. His curveball and changeup both need work, but with some improvement he could have a solid Major League arsenal. He attacks hitters and has good poise on the mound. Snelten is more athletic than his 6-foot-7, 230-pound frame might suggest.</p>
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<p>So, he's a 6'7" lefty who can touch 94. Doesn't that make him, like, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball? Of course, I know it doesn't, but it seems like it should. I'll never understand scouting.</p>
<p>And with their last pick Friday, the Giants took Tyler Rogers (N/A) out of Austin Peay. He was the first Giants draftee without a scouting report. You laugh, but there were years where the Giants' second rounders didn't have any, and everyone freaked out. MLB.com has greatly increased their coverage of the draft, which why that isn't happening now.</p>
<p>There were 16 Tylers on Baseball America's top-500 list. Tyler Rogers was not one of them. Hey, it's the 10th round.</p>
<p><i>Thanks to <a href="http://bullpenbanter.com/" target="new">Bullpen Banter</a> for having so many relevant videos accessible on YouTube!</i></p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/7/4407806/giants-draft-day-two-roundupGrant Brisbee2013-06-07T12:04:33-07:002013-06-07T12:04:33-07:00The spectrum of knee-jerk draft analysis
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<figcaption>Chung Sung-Jun</figcaption>
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<p>On the subject of evaluating a team's draft based on consensus opinion ... </p> <p>I used to review the Giants' draft every year. Can you imagine? I watched exactly one college game in person this year. No high school games. And that's a busy scouting year for me. Yet after the draft, I would write, "here are important thoughts please review thanks." There would always be disclaimers, of course, but not enough.</p>
<p>Of course, when I yelled at everyone for <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2007/6/8/12134/09420" target="new">complaining about high-school pitchers</a>, I kind of nailed it. You were all so stupid! Look at you, looking all stupid in your "Mills is my Beau!" shirt. Hope you learned a lesson.</p>
<p>Still, you shouldn't care what I think. About the draft, I mean. Please tune in for my weekly important thoughts on Brett Pill. Those are still important.</p>
<p>But there are two competing concepts playing tug of war when it comes to the layperson's perception of the Giants' draft this year, in which they used their first two picks on players who were widely perceived as third-to-fifth-round picks. Those competing concepts:</p>
<p> </p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Appeal to authority</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Wisdom of crowds</span></li>
</ol>
<p> </p>
<p>The first concept is when you assume the Giants have it all figured out. Count the rings, sucker! How's my Brandon Crawford taste? That's a neat opinion on the draft, and it'd be a shame if Madison Bumgarner threw a cutter at it. John Barr rules, Logan White drools!</p>
<p>I'll admit I lean toward this one. Maybe it's an outdated way to approach the Giants, though. The team is fielding a lineup that's half homegrown, and they won two World Series with three homegrown starters (not including Jonathan Sanchez), which buys a lot of credibility. But they currently have a pretty wretched farm system. You can't keep telling everyone how great <i>Boston</i> is when you're stuck in a car listening to <i>Third Stage</i>.</p>
<p>The second concept has to do with the aggregate opinion. Where Keith Law ranks players, and the scouting reports culled by Baseball America. The aggregate opinion usually has a much better track record of any individual. I don't know if anyone's done a study with the baseball draft exclusively, but the idea is that if you match the aggregate opinion against the individual lists of Baseball America, ESPN, or any scouting director in the land, the aggregate opinion will have more long-term success.</p>
<p>There's a spectrum, then.</p>
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<p><br>Yes, something like that. And as long as you're somewhere in that middle, oh, 60 percent, you're probably not annoying. The 20 percent at either end? Yeah.</p>
<p>There's an addendum to that. The draftniks have to pretend they've scouted all of these players equally, as if they sat in a room and watched an even 10 hours of footage for each player before coming up with their rankings. The Giants can't pretend to do that. They focus heavily on as many of the 1,500 amateur players as they can, and they whittle down the possibilities and allocate resources. They aren't trying to be baseball hipsters. When the #25 pick came around, they felt they had a handle on Arroyo more than any of the other prospects. I can respect that.</p>
<p>They did the same thing with Joe Panik, for example, and people are tossing that name out as a <i>bad</i> comp for Arroyo. As in, here the Giants go again. But here's how I see that Panik pick in context:</p>
<p>29. Young infielder showing plus bat control and command of the strike zone<br> 30. Shortstop struggling in High-A<br> 31. Outfielder struggling in Double-A<br> 32. Shortstop doing well for his age in High-A<br> 33. Pitcher with a 7.0 BB/9 in Low-A<br> 34. Top prospect doing meh in Double-A<br> 35. Teenager below the Mendoza Line in rookie ball<br> 36. Top pitching prospect doing well in High-A<br> 37. Injured outfielder old for his league<br> 38. Teenager struggling in Low-A<br> 39. Outfielder below the Mendoza Line in Low-A<br> 40. Jackie Bradley, who is kind of a badass</p>
<p>And so on. There are players who were rated higher and drafted later for whom I'd trade Panik. Oh, Jackie Bradley, Jr., oh man. But most of them I wouldn't. Someone watched Panik play and saw something that stood out. They were right, especially compared to a lot of the picks that followed. A 22-year-old middle infielder with a K/BB of 32/20 in 226 Eastern League at-bats is a rare creature.</p>
<p>That doesn't mean that he'll be great, or that he'll develop any power, or that he'll be anything other than Jeff Keppinger with a bigger bonus. But Panik is exhibiting something that isn't a normal skill, even for a late-first rounder. That's all you can ask for.</p>
<p>Here's hoping Arroyo shows the same thing. He might not. But if the Giants liked him a lot more than most of the other teams and pundits, I'll assume they have a pretty good reason. That's erring on the left side of that spectrum. Your mileage may vary.</p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/7/4407084/giants-2013-draft-analysisGrant Brisbee2013-06-07T11:00:55-07:002013-06-07T11:00:55-07:00Giants take Chase Johnson with third-round pick
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<p>The Giants drafted Chase Johnson, a right-handed reliever (who still could be a starter, settle down) out of Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo*, which spawned Ozzie Smith, Kevin Correia, and Mike Krukow. The exchange on the MLB.com telecast:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"The Giants stay local ... what did they get here?"</p>
<p>"... I don't really know ..."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Oh, man. Just the best. But what they meant was that Johnson didn't pitch a whole lot this year, and John Manuel said it was frustrating for teams that wanted to scout him. They weren't sure if it was coach/player rift or something else, but that Johnson still flashed a 97-m.p.h. stuffball when he did pitch.</p>
<p>The high school hitters? Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical. A raw arm? I have a little more faith in the Giants with this one. Some <a target="new" href="http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=27084783">video is here</a>, and the MLB.com capsule:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Chase Johnson's junior year has been curious, to say the least. The big right-hander threw well in the Cape Cod League over the summer, following up a sophomore season as Cal Poly's closer. But he's been used sparingly in 2013, yielding the closer role to Reed Reilly. Johnson still has good stuff, though, with a fastball up to 93 mph that has good sink to it to go along with a slider and changeup that both have the chance to be Major League average. Command has been a bit of an issue, but he's generally around the strike zone and a team that feels they can help him improve on that may get a solid setup-type of a reliever as a bargain in the Draft.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Reed Reilly is probably an alter-ego, so maybe there were larger forces at work in that struggle. Still, an interesting pick. Someone on the Giants must have really liked the arm. </p>
<p><sub>
<p><i>* sources describe this school as "Harvard of the West"</i></p>
</sub></p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/7/4406912/mlb-draft-2013-giants-chase-johnson-third-round-pickGrant Brisbee2013-06-07T09:49:52-07:002013-06-07T09:49:52-07:00Open Draft Thread, Day II
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<p>Thar be Belts and Crawfords on this day, I can feel it.</p>
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2013/6/7/4406630/open-draft-thread-day-iiGrant Brisbee