Giants-Mets Series Preview

When the New York Mets ended April with a 15-14 record, it looked like they might rise above the step back season their new President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns, had planned for them. Then they remembered they’re the Mets and have since come crashing back down to Earth with a 6-14 record here in May.

The San Francisco Giants were supposed to be a steady third Wild Card contender from the jump. But when they ended April with a 14-16 record, it looked like they might do what they’ve done since 2021: been a frustrating disappointment. They still might be that, but it won’t be because they’ll have come up short in being a steady contender for that third Wild Card. Oh no. Not after this 11-10 May run they’re on. Not with this intriguing infusion of young players who have started to perform to the scouts’ hopes for them.

Are the Giants good? Who knows. Are they interesting? Yes. This completed series with the Pirates was a lot of fun, and even if there are flaws (relief pitching & defense), they have managed to be far less predictable on offense in that they are no longer crushingly silent. Their team 114 wRC+ is tied with the Padres for fifth-best here in May and their 103 runs scored is the fourth-most in MLB behind the Phillies (130), Royals (105), and A’s (104)

Meanwhile, the Mets have been below average on offense (97 wRC+) and near the bottom with pitching. Their team ERA of 4.95 is 28th in MLB, ahead of only Arizona (4.98) and Oakland (5.26). But don’t get too confident. The Giants have a 4.60 team ERA in May.

There is no Met in the top 30 of MLB position players, not by fWAR or simply by wRC+. Brandon Nimmo eventually checks in at 34 with his 130 wRC+, but you add in his defense (-1.5 Defensive Runs Above Average) and it sinks his fWAR down a bit to +1.3, still making him the most valuable position player Met but now in the 40s. Pete Alonso is the next-most valuable Met bat at 48 with a 123 wRC+. His 11 home runs are in a five-guy tie with Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O’Neill, Brent Rooker, and Cal Raleigh, all fine players but ones he has, at least historically, been considered better than.

Pete Alonso is 29 now, which in recent years means perhaps the last year he might be really great on offense. He’s slugging just .466 this season despite a career .524 slugging percentage. He’s still rating out (123 wRC+) than where he ended last season (121). Over the past two weeks he’s managed to pick up the pace, too, slashing .305/.359/.576 with 3 home runs, 7 doubles, and a 10-5 K-BB in 64 plate appearances.

I’m focusing on Alonso here for two reasons: he’s the Met most likely to be dealt within the next couple of months if the team continues to fall deeper in the standings because he’s in the last year of his contract and as a slugging first baseman about to enter his thirties, the type of player a Smart Team avoids handing out a long-term extension to.

The Giants have been one of the rumored teams for a while now, and with the emergence of Heliot Ramos and other positive developments down on the farm, they could have some decent chips to offer within these next couple of months. Would the Giants do it in what would be another Kris Bryant situation, except Alonso is not Bryant defensively? Who knows what the next couple of months will mean for the Giants. LaMonte Wade Jr. is having a fantastic season and while the Giants could trade Jorge Soler as part of an Alonso deal, it probably wouldn’t make a lot of sense. But it’s something to keep in mind.

And you’re going to probably drift in that direction anyway when Alonso crushes the Giants these next three games. In his career against the Giants (30 games), he’s slashed .287/.362/.583 with 10 home runs, 2 doubles, and a triple. In fairness, 7 of the 10 home runs (and 21 of his 26 RBI) have come against the Giants at Oracle Park in 17 games. So, does that mean he’d make a great Giant or does it mean he’s less of a Met without the Giants?

Series details

Who: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Where: Citi Field, Flushing, New York
When: Friday (4:10pm PT), Saturday (10:40am PT), Sunday (10:40am PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Saturday)

Projected starters

Friday: Kyle Harrison vs. Christian Scott
Saturday: Jordan Hicks vs. Luis Severino
Sunday: Logan Webb vs. Sean Manaea

Where they stand

Mets, 21-28 (3rd in NL Central), 209 RS / 228 RA, Last 10 games: 2-8
Giants, 25-26 (3rd in NL West), 219 RS / 243 RA, Last 10 games: 7-3

Mets to watch

Francisco Lindor: He’s done well against the Giants for hist career (.274/.314/.547) in 23 games including 6 home runs. He was recently booed by Cleveland fans upon his return there after the Guardians traded him, a bizarre reaction from a bizarre city, and he went 4-for-14 in that series, which is solid, but didn’t do much to help his slide here in the second half of May. Since the 14th, he’s just 7-for-39 with 2 doubles a walk, and 6 strikeouts (.487 OPS). His expected numbers and batted ball data in Statcast are maybe just a little off from last season, but not so much show that it would explain the 150+-point drop in his OPS. Being 30 now might have something to do with it, though.

Harrison Bader: The Giants were linked to him at some point this offseason and while that probably wouldn’t have been an inspiring signing, it might’ve been a little productive. As it stands, he’s been just fine with the Mets. A 101 wRC+ on a .281/.324/.360 line. That 24.3% strikeout rate to 4.1% walk rate is really ugly, though. As bad as his .079 ISO. He has 4 HR against the Giants in his career. But the Mets signed him for his defense, and he’s een excellent there, with +5 Outs Above Average in centerfield. We’ll see how he does against Luis Matos’s ropes.

Sean Manaea: When Gabe Kapler finally took the plunge and allowed him to start towards the end of last season, Manaea looked solidly above average and with that increased velocity that had made him such an eye-opening performer in 2023. He’s managed to carry all of his lessons over to this season with the Mets, with a 3-1 record in 9 starts and a 3.11 ERA (3.42 FIP). On the other hand, his strikeouts are down (8.0 per 9) while his walks are way up (3.2 per 9). Still, he was effective against the Giants just last month back in San Francisco, when he pitched 4.2 shutout innings, striking out 6 and walking 4. But in May, he’s basically been great: 17 IP, 3.18 ERA (3.14 FIP), 11-3 K-BB and 1 home run allowed. That lineup he faced in SF didn’t have Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, or Heliot Ramos in it, though.

Giants to watch

Luis Matos: I just want to know if this is real. Can this be real? Can he be that guy?

Heliot Ramos: I just want to know if this is real. Can this be real? Can he be that guy?

Marco Luciano: It’s not just because Francisco Lindor is on the opposing team, but that’s a factor here. Luciano’s two errors in the Pittsburgh series cost them at least one game and nearly a second, and while his pitch selection has looked solid and his overall athleticism has been apparent, the Big Apple is supposed to be intimidating, and for sour Mets fans looking to take out their frustrations, he might become a tempting target for boo birds. He could really silence them with a 3-run home run or two.

Prediction time