Blake Snell check-in

Hopes were high for Blake Snell in his return from the injured list. Over two starts in San Jose and Sacramento, he threw 9 scoreless innings, bagged 17 strikeouts, and tossed an immaculate inning.

What fans were treated to in his return against Pittsburgh on Wednesday was not that.

The Pirates might operate like a farm club at times, but they’re not; and Snell is rarely, if ever, immaculate. Clean, tidy—nah, the furthest thing from it, but when he’s right, he has the tools to cut through that grime. A stable of secondary stuff that can generate as much wind as a ceiling fan.

The whiff-rate of his curveball, slider, change-up in 2023: 56.3%, 53.6%, 46.8%. Those numbers are absurd, but they’re not anomalies for Snell. His curve’s whiff-rate hasn’t been lower than 43.1% as far back as 2017. Going into Wednesday’s start the breaking ball’s swing-and-miss sat at 33.3%. The slider and change-up were in that same, low-riding boat.

Over his first three starts with the San Francisco Giants, the mix certainly wasn’t operating at its highest potential. The problems alternated: weird off-season, shortened Spring, fatigue, location, feel. Progress was slow, then it ground to a halt after an adductor strain put him out of action for a month.

A lot of that frustration continued on Wednesday. Sift through the muck of his game’s pitching line (3.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K)—also known as the results—and there were signs of promise.

The overall swing-and-miss kicked up from his season average so far, while the four-seam fastball flirted with a 50% rate (pretty high for him). On swings in the zone against the four-seamer, he limited Pittsburgh contact to just 58% with 19 swings generating just three balls in play. Success between the knee and belt is important because for someone who spends a lot of time out of that box, especially for Snell, who doesn’t typically elicit much chase from hitters. This makes sense: the veteran has been around. He’s got a reputation around the league as wild (though that descriptor might not be completely accurate) thus teams approach with caution, and he has a reputation of being pretty ungracious to batters who help him out in the box.

Snell threw more of pitches out of the zone (60.1%) than anyone in baseball last year and generated the second most swing-and-miss when batters chased (58.4%). In other words, no one wants to, or should, swing at a Snell pitch unless they have to.

His fastball then is the key—bury hitters in pitchers’ counts, then start to play with them using any of the many toys at his disposal.

But what we saw against Pittsburgh was not Snell’s infamous nibbling.

There’s a healthy avoidance of the plate, and then there’s an unhealthy aversion. Wednesday’s outing was plagued with big misses and early ones. His in-zone rate against Pittsburgh sunk to 31% — that number is just too low to be effective. Nearly half the batters he faced worked 3-ball counts. But more telling was Snell’s first-pitch strike rate: only 8 of the 19 batters he faced (42%) dealt with Snell in an 0-1 count.

In plate appearances that started in an 0-1 count against Snell in 2023, batters hit .125 with a 3.42 SO/W (145 K / 42 BB) in 374 PA.

After a 1-0 count, batters hit .241 with a .779 OPS and a 1.57 SO/W (86 K / 57 BB) in 305 PA. Those numbers were still better than average compared to the rest of the league, but a notable drop in results.

That dominance wasn’t as apparent on Wednesday. After 0-1 counts, Joey Bart singled twice, Edward Olivares worked a walk, and Andrew McCutchen got an RBI HBP. An on-base percentage of .500 for Pittsburgh in a situation in which Snell especially, with his quiver of put-away pitches, is known as a cruel warden.

Even without being as freakishly good as last year, even with this rocky start in 2024, Snell is a better pitcher and probably better than average when starting with a first pitch strike. What I think is more telling is how his performance has soured when throwing from behind in the count. After 1-0, opponents are hitting .467 with 1.368 OPS in 37 PA. Compared to other pitchers, Snell has been god-awful and a boon (245 sOPS+) for hitters after missing the zone on the first pitch.

Snell’s return performance became an afterthought after San Francisco scored 9 unanswered runs to beat the Pirates. His results secondary to the results produced by Matt Chapman, LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Matos, Jorge Soler and Patrick Bailey at the plate. Perhaps if no comeback was mounted there would’ve been a more critical eye leveled at Snell.

Safe in the shadows, out of the spotlight, Snell seemed more at ease. He felt good. Everything was good. His velocity was good. The ball felt good coming out of his hand. No fatigue, just all good. Except for a blister on his foot, which wasn’t good, but once that’s cleaned up, it’ll be all good...

I believe him…kind of.

To be fair, he wasn’t hit terribly hard and allowed relatively inconsequential singles, nor was Snell on the mound when three of his earned runs scored, but the bevy of easy-takes, the unfriendly counts, the inflated inning pitch counts, the free rally he handed out in the 4th certainly contain plenty of fodder for personal growth.

Sure, we knew we were getting into this when he signed. This the bargain club’s make with Snell. His flaws are forgivable because his other attributes are so admirable. He makes a mess and cleans it up. But over four starts into his Giants career, that just hasn’t been the case. He’s only covered 15 innings through April and May—not much more than Tyler Fitzgerald’s 3 IP when you think about it—and each of his early exits have left the team behind him in a bind.

At this rate, Snell will be his old self by August. The 2024 season is starting to feel like a hobby-project for the southpaw, an old clock that Snell tinkers with on lazy Sunday afternoons to wile away the days.

Meanwhile the rest of the roster is scratching and clawing for every out and every run.