FanPost

The Twins found a way to do the trick

Carlos Correa has managed to return to the Twins on a 6 year, $200 million deal (Park, 2023)*[1]. While the raw dollar value of this contract is far less than the values of those that he negotiated with both the Giants and Mets, one must pay attention to the denominator to get the full picture. He has actually increased his annual average salary from what it would have been if his deal with either the Giants or the Mets had been brought to fruition. As things stand, he will earn $33.3 million annually, while with the Giants, he would have had a yearly salary of $26.9 million, and with the Mets, this number would have been $26.25 million. While one would still rather be in the first situation due to the guarantee of much more total money that could not be lost due to injury or aging, the point is that if Correa finally passes a physical, he will have successfully managed to limit the damage that could have been done to his financial outlook.

Of course, there is no guarantee that we will not see the whole former process repeat itself. It looked final when he signed with the Giants. It looked final when he signed with the Mets. And it looks final now. But who knows what the Twins will end up thinking about his health? This being said, this deal is reported to be extremely important to the Twins (Park, 2023)*[2], so we'll see if it turns out to be important enough that they actually get it done.

I understand that if I blame the Giants for not capitalizing on the reduction in Correa's value, my reasoning could be in doubt at first glance, since had he signed with the Mets for $315 million I'd probably be arguing from the other side and citing the Mets' bravery in taking the risk as a way to shame the Giants for not doing so. In other words, I could take either the result of a large or a smaller contract between Correa and another team and use it to make my point that the Giants are not doing things right, which seems to constitute a logical inconsistency.

However, we must return to what I discussed in the first paragraph, and realize that two things are true. The Twins had a reduction in Correa's market value to take advantage of, and yet they still had to be willing to accept some risk, as they will be paying Correa a higher annual salary like I mentioned. Again, we still have to see what their opinion on his physical is, but it certainly seems that the Twins had more spine than the Giants did. We can praise the Twins for being aggressive while still maintaining that Correa went for a very reasonable price given the concerns that were expressed over his health. And the Giants, in their dire circumstance, needed to show a willingness to put something real into this. I’m not stating that they didn’t for sure, but I just don’t know that they would have been the lowest underdogs in the prospect of signing him if they had.

Remember too that the Mets left Correa hanging for a long time after coming to terms with him. While it seems correct that Correa and his agent Scott Boras didn't fully grasp the reality that a much smaller deal would be necessary until right about now, there was plenty of time for negotiation, and there is now plenty of reason to wonder why the Giants were unable to at least bring their probability of acquiring him up to a decent level. I am unaware of how they negotiated or whether any offers were officially made. If so, I'd be interested to know what they were. And it could be that more detailed information is available somewhere and I just don't have it.

The reason the Mets got so much longer than the Giants to "make up their minds" is likely because while they were quick to offer a deal after the Giants expressed the initial doubt on Correa's health, no other team offered anything close to the terms he had come to with them. Correa and Boras were looking for the highest contract possible, and the opportunity appeared to be with the Mets, even with all the delay. But the question now is why the Giants weren't able to get a good foothold on bidding for him after his value was evidently adjusted by the baseball market in general. Granted, it may have been difficult to get Boras to trust them. After all, they had failed to confirm the deal the first time, so wasn't there a chance they would start the process over again in the lower dollar-value realm?

But again, we won't know what caused this result until we can find out what exactly the Giants were offering. We won't know if they lost track of the opportunity to grab Correa cheaper. They had an initial commitment to spending a lot this offseason and this circumstance was certainly not the time to change their aggressive intentions. If the Twins somehow fail to confirm this new deal immediately, it will be the Giants ultimate opportunity to jump in. By the way, I think it's likely they will confirm it, as it is a significantly reduced commitment. We can probably pretty much say goodbye to Correa. But, if by some turn of events the Twins don't get things done, the Giants will have no excuse for not getting back into the fight over this superstar. The fact that the Twins got him for $200 million probably just confirms the Giants spinelessness, just like the Yankees signing of Aaron Judge for $360 million did.

*References:

1. Park, D. (2023, January 10). Correa, Twins reach 6-year deal, pending physical (sources). Official Minnesota Twins website.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/carlos-correa-agrees-to-new-deal-with-twins

2. Park, D. (2023, January 10). 5 reasons the Correa deal is important to the Twins. Official Minnesota Twins website.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/reasons-carlos-correa-signing-is-important-to-twins

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