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Saturday BP: What kind of a contract will Kevin Gausman get?

The Giants ace is heading into free agency, and questions surround how much money he’ll receive.

MLB: NLDS-Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Gausman is once again a free agent, and the San Francisco Giants will try and make it three straight offseasons striking a deal with the right-handed pitcher.

This time will be the hardest. Two years ago, Gausman, coming off an up-and-down season in which he had been waived, signed with the Giants for one year and $3.33 million. After his stellar 2020, the Giants extended him the Qualifying Offer and he accepted, returning for the set price of $18.9 million, nearly as much as he’d made in his first eight years combined.

The Giants will surely extend the Qualifying Offer again, only this time Gausman will almost surely reject it, meaning the Giants will be awarded a compensatory draft pick should he sign elsewhere.

The Giants can’t extend the Qualifying Offer to Gausman this year, as players are only eligible to receive it once in their career. So the Giants won’t get anything in return if he signs elsewhere.

Hopefully he doesn’t sign elsewhere, but before anyone signs him, they’ll need to agree to a contract with him. And trying to figure out what Gausman will earn is a tricky task.

Gausman doesn’t have the history of success that many star pitchers have when they hit free agency, with 2021 being his first year making the All-Star team and, not to count chickens before they hatch, his first year earning Cy Young Award votes.

But he’s also only 30 years old, and in the last two seasons has had a 3.00 ERA, a 3.02 FIP, and 306 strikeouts in 251.2 innings, while tallying 6.4 fWAR.

Fangraphs is currently crowdsourcing free agent contracts, an awesome exercise they do every year, and you can put in your numbers for Gausman there. It will be fascinating to see what baseball fans think Gausman gets ... and what he actually gets.

Old, random MCC article for you to read

A Calm, Rational Discussion on Brandon Belt (Finally) (Aug. 27, 2012 — Grant Brisbee)

How many days until pitchers and catchers report?

Giants pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in 110 days.

Have a lovely Saturday, friends.