MLBTR’s arbitration projections are here

Well would you look at that, it’s that time of the year again: arbitration projection. In the coming weeks I’ll have specific posts for each arbitration-eligible player on the San Francisco Giants, but for today let’s focus on all of them.

Because the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections are here. Which means we can start to get a feel for what kind of money the arbitration-eligible Giants will be receiving and, in turn, if the Giants should non-tender them.

The Giants have nine arbitration-eligible players on the 40-man roster or Injured List. Here they are, with the figure they made last year (before being prorated, and only if not entering first year of arbitration) in parenthesis.

First year of arbitration: Jarlin García, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta, Austin Slater

Second year of arbitration: Wandy Peralta ($805,000), Daniel Robertson ($1.03 million)

Third year of arbitration: Tyler Anderson ($1.78 million), Alex Dickerson ($925,000), Donovan Solano ($1.38 million)

This year, to account for the fact that there was a truncated season, MLB Trade Rumors is offering up three different arbitration figures.

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season

Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.

Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

That means we can hopefully throw the first figure out, but I’ll include it anyway. So, with that said, here are MLB Trade Rumors’ projections for the Giants nine players, from priciest to least costly:

Tyler Anderson: $2.4M/$4.3M/$3.7M
Donovan Solano: $2.2M/$3.8M/$2.3M
Alex Dickerson: $2.0M/$3.3M/$1.8M
Austin Slater: $1.1M/$1.7M/$1.1M
Daniel Robertson: $1.2M/$1.3M/$1.1M
Jarlin García: $900K/$1.3M/$900K
Wandy Peralta: $1.0M/$1.2M/$1.0M
Trevor Gott: $700K/$1.0M/$700K
Reyes Moronta: $800K/$800K/$800K

A few of those names are absolute locks to be tendered, such as Solano, Dickerson, and Slater. A few others — namely Robertson — are more toss-ups, especially with the Giants needing to clear a good chunk of names off of the 40-man roster in the coming weeks.