Giants @ Cubs, 8/20

I’m not sure if this is Tyler Beede’s last turn in the rotation this season if tonight’s start quickly runs into a ditch... but I won’t be surprised. Beede has both earned the benefit of the doubt and a healthy degree of skepticism with a combination of electric stuff and confidence that has bent but not yet broken.

Disagree? Fine. But I’m not just saying all this because of that post I wrote last week. The team thinks it, too:

The Giants owe it to themselves just as much as they owe it to Beede to try to see if there’s a workable starting pitcher in there. This will be Beede’s biggest, if not final, test of the season. He doesn’t need to be perfect and a successful outing doesn’t have to be anything more than five solid innings without major incident.

The Cubs have underperformed, but they’re still a stacked lineup of troublesome batters. Javier Baez has massacred the Giants on the regular, and against Tyler Beede, he’s already 2-for-3 with a home run, so it won’t take long for him to run into a real challenge. They’re, uh... they’re also 41-19 at Wrigley Field. The Giants are 3-12 there since 2015.

CF — Jason Heyward
RF — Nicholas Castellanos
3B — Kris Bryant
1B — Anthony Rizzo
SS — Javy Baez
LF — Kyle Schwarber
C — Jonathan Lucroy
2B — Tony Kemp
SP — Cole Hamels

A reminder that, yes, the Cubs did acquire Castellanos at the deadline. He has an 1.102 OPS with six home runs in 17 games since the trade (74 PA).

This is Cole Hamels’ first start against the Giants since 2015. He gave up 9 runs and 12 hits in 3.1 innings while with the Phillies, then saw them again a few weeks later as a member of the Rangers, giving up 5 runs and 8 hits in 7.2 innings. Hamels is a much different pitcher now than he was in 2015 and the Giants are a much better team against left-handed pitching since July 1st than they were after the first three months of the season. Their team wOBA of .374 against left-handing pitching has been the best in the National League.

Hamels hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning since June 23rd, and has a 10.64 ERA in his four starts since then. He’s pitched a total of five innings in his past two starts combined, though both of those were on the road. He’s been incredible at Wrigley Field: a 2.35 ERA in nine starts, a 1.08 WHIP, and 3.33 K/BB (60/18).

2B — Donovan Solano
LF — Mike Yastrzemski
C — Buster Posey
3B — Evan Longoria
CF — Kevin Pillar
RF — Austin Slater
1B — Brandon Belt
SS — Abiatal Avelino
SP — Tyler Beede

Beede with Vogt behind the plate: 4.28 ERA, .751 OPS against in 9 games (48.1 IP)
Beede with Posey behind the plate: 7.57 ERA, .978 OPS against in 6 games (27.1 IP)