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Giants @ Diamondbacks, 8/16

Samardzija (9-9, 3.55 ERA) vs. Leake (9-9, 4.58 ERA)

San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks

This game has been my nightmare ever since the Diamondbacks traded for Mike Leake. In two starts with his new team, Leake has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in 10.1 innings along with 21 hits. He gave up four home runs to the Dodgres in his most recent start, a 9-3 loss. His first start came against Philadelphia, an 8-4 win. In that one, he allowed 11 hits but just three runs (two earned) while striking out three and walking one.

The Giants should be capable of doing to Leake what the Dodgers did (with, perhaps, three fewer home runs), but I fear they’re going to get Philly’d, or worse. It was almost a month ago that Leake nearly no-hit the Angels in a 10-0 win, and that’s the start I’m thinking of here. His final start as a member of the Mariners was another start where he allowed 10 hits (in 5.2 innings), and the start before that, it was nine hits in 7 innings. In both of those starts (the two starts after his near no-hitter), he allowed three runs apiece.

CF — Ketel Marte
LF — David Peralta
2B — Eduardo Escobar
1B — Christian Walker
3B — Jake Lamb
RF — Josh Rojas
SS — Nick Ahmed
C — Carson Kelly
SP — Mike Leake

Marte has started 17 games in the leadoff spot this season and has a .393 OBP — and 1.143 OPS — in 84 plate appearances. He’s been the fifth-most valuable hitter in baseball this season.

RF — Mike Yastrzemski
C — Buster Posey
LF — Alex Dickerson
3B — Evan Longoria
2B — Scooter Gennett
CF — Kevin Pillar
1B — Brandon Belt
SS — Brandon Crawford
SP — Jeff Samardzija

This will be Yastrzemski’s third start where he leads off. He’s 2-for-9 with 4 strikeouts so far. On the season, he has a 24.5% strikeout rate to a 7% walk rate. On the other hand, if Leake misses a spot with his sinker, Yastrzemski can crush it.