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Thursday BP, 7/18/19

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San Diego Padres v San Francisco Giants

Good morning, McCoven!

Continuing on our theme this week of talking about the Giants suddenly being good, speculating on whether they can sustain that, and some people having cautious optimism about a Wild Card chase (or having thrown caution to the wind entirely), I thought I would share this piece from Alex Pavlovic at NBC Sports Bay Area. Pavlovic discusses what the Giants would need to do to make the playoff aspirations a reality, and spoiler alert to those in the reckless abandon stage of hope, it doesn’t look great. According to him, the Giants should aim for 87 wins, which would mean they would have to post a .611 winning percentage over the rest of the season.

The only problem with that?

They’re five back of the Nationals and three back of the second spot, but the climb to 87 still is steep. They have to go 41-26 the rest of the way, a .611 winning percentage. The only team in the NL this season to play .611 ball is Los Angeles, a juggernaut that will easily win the division yet again.

Now, for those who want to maintain their optimism, that assumes that we will have a normal year in terms of other Wild Card contenders. Which, given the fact that the field is as crowded and close as it is, may not actually be the case. And nothing says the Giants can’t still be that team to run away with it. So far, none of the other teams are really pulling away from the pack yet, so I’m not going to say to give up your hope just yet.