If the PECOTA projections for the Giants’ hitters bummed you out, well, I don’t know what you’re doing here. These won’t make you feel any better. The Giants don’t figure to be a good baseball team in 2019. PECOTA pegs them at 71 wins and a last place finish in the NL West, the same division that includes the San Diego Padres.
The offense is bad, and the pitching won’t save them. Let’s see how much PECOTA hates the Giants’ pitching staff.
By WARP, Bumgarner is projected to be the Giants most valuable pitcher. What’s concerning is that Bumgarner isn’t projected to be that good. PECOTA figures Bumgarner to be worth 1.4 WARP and have an ERA of 3.85. That would be about half a run worse than his previous high. Considering the offense figures to score about half a run a game, that is, well, bad.
PECOTA believes that Suárez will be the rotation’s ERA leader at 3.68. It does not believe that he will be their innings leader. I’d definitely take the over on Suárez’s projected 86 1/3 innings because as long as he stays healthy, who is going to take innings from him?
Suárez’s rookie year was overshadowed in some ways by Dereck Rodríguez. Assuming PECOTA is wrong about his playing time but right about his performance, Suárez will be the star of the rotation this year.
Will Smith is the only Giants pitcher projected to have a DRA under 4.00. That sounds a lot worse than it really is. Only 109 of 1092 pitchers met that criteria. The median projected DRA is 4.80 which many of the Giants come under. However, assuming an even distribution, every team should have about three pitchers with a DRA under 4.00. The Giants have one, and they should probably trade him.
Holland is projected for a 4.20 ERA which feels very on brand for him.
Pomeranz, like Holland, is a pitcher whose last two years have been wildly different. PECOTA believes that the most recent season is the more telling for each, and because of that, the Giants are figured to get the slightly worse Pomeranz. His 4.22 ERA won’t be quite as bad as his 2018, but it won’t be near as good as his 2016 or 2017.
Moronta figures to have a K/9 of 11.1. He also figures to have a BB/9 of 4.9. Sounds about right.
Ty Blach is also projected for a 4.20 ERA which does not feel on brand for him.
PECOTA isn’t as convinced with Watson’s stellar 2018 as it should be. He’s projected for a 3.1 BB/9 which is over 50 percent higher than his previous mark, and it would be his highest since 2012.
The good news is that PECOTA predicts Jeff Samardzija’s command issues will be under control. After walking 5.2 batters per nine in 2018, Samardzija should get down to a BB/9 under 3 again. The bad news is that the strikeout rate is also going to fall.
Since the Giants picked up Dyson, he has been totally fine. PECOTA thinks this will continue.
Melancon is projected for a 7.3 K/9 which is somehow an improvement over last year.
Stratton’s meager projected 4.43 ERA and 0.1 WARP ignore the hire of Matt Daniels, who will figure out what Stratton should be doing with the elite spin rate on his curveball. Surely, this will be the year Stratton starts throwing his best pitch more often.
Venditte might not be projected to be all that great, but when he gets called up in mid-June and the Giants are already 25 games back, you’ll be eager for any reason to continue watching this team. Venditte will provide a much-needed distraction for a week or two.
The most recent addition to the Giants’ pitching staff could strike out more than a batter per inning, but he might challenge Reyes Moronta for the team “lead” in walk rate.
If you thought that Moronta’s strikeout and walk rates were extreme, wait until you get a load of Black’s. His 13.1 K/9 is Kimbrelesque, but his 7.2 BB/9 is downright Chatwoodian. Black has his command issues, but his walk rates haven’t been near as extreme since his injury plagued 2017. Steamer projects him for a 4.33 BB/9, and that feels a lot more reasonable.
Uhh, probably don’t look Rodríguez’s PECOTA projections. Just look at his 2.81 ERA from last year. That’s totally indicative of what he’ll do in 2019.