2019 MLB free agency predictions

I forgot that Grant had always done a free agency prediction post. Even he has forgotten before. Thanks to bdimugno for mentioning it in yesterday’s BP (if you’re new to the site: that’s our daily general comments thread for the community). So here we are, a few weeks into free agency, and at least five notable deals have been made:

Yasmani Grandal - White Sox
Jake Odorizzi - Twins (accepted the qualifying offer)
Will Smith - Braves :-(
Jose Abreu - White Sox (accepted the qualifying offer)
Chris Martin - Phillies

These deals have registered as a bit of a surprise, given who slowly free agency has moved the past few offseasons. There has definitely been a change in the industry and it’s safe to say that baseball will never be the same again, which means it’ll be a lot more difficult to do these types of posts without feeling supremely dumb while doing them.

Last year, Kenny jinxed this entire process with this jinxer of a jinx:

Having the front office remain mostly the same for 20 years means it’s easy to predict how the Giants will reload.

[...]

Unless Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean get fired or something, but that would require the Giants undergoing a dramatic change, and that’s never going to happen.

He went 0-fer with his predictions (Lance Lynn? Justin Wilson! Brian Dozier!), which means it is acceptable to laugh at him in the comments below.

The very first comment on the post really set the tone, though:

this is the most depressing article in the history of McC

So, whomever gets the first comment on this one has to follow a really tough act. But also: Kenny wrote that the afternoon after the Giants had lost a franchise record 11th game in a row. The post preceded the starter of a two-game winning streak, one of two the Giants had in September 2018. So! Optimism! These posts are necessary, even if the coked out day traders running baseball teams don’t want us to have any idea what they’re up to.

The big joke last year, of course, was that the Giants weren’t going to be able to land Bryce Harper — but then they almost, kinda-sorta nearly maybe who really knows did! And it was . . . you know, pretty okay. The Giants went on to lose 85 games — an improvement to be sure — and they did it through a record setting number of transactions, but just imagine if they had done all that with Harper on the team . . .

Using MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent rankings, let’s see if the Giants and the rest of the sport might make a few free agent transactions. But mainly, let’s see if we’re smart enough to see the Matrix that is the MLB algorithm that controls free agency.

First, though, I shall embarrass myself with these predictions:

1. Gerrit Cole - Angels
2. Anthony Rendon - Rangers
3. Stephen Strasburg - Yankees
4. Zack Wheeler - Padres
5. Josh Donaldson - Nationals
6. Madison Bumgarner - Braves
7. Nicholas Castellanos - Giants
8. Hyun-Jin Ryu - Brewers
9. Marcell Ozuna - Rangers
10. Didi Gregorius - Nationals
11. Dallas Keuchel - Dodgers
12. Cole Hamels - Padres
13. Michael Pineda - Marlins
14. Mike Moustakas - Brewers
15. Kyle Gibson - A’s
16. Tanner Roark - Phillies
17. Julio Teheran - Pirates
18. Will Harris - Twins
19. Drew Pomeranz - Astros
20. Wade Miley - Rays
21. Corey Dickerson - Cubs
22. Travis d’Arnaud - Brewers
23. Daniel Hudson - Nationals
24. Avisail Garcia - Cleveland
25. Howie Kendrick - Phillies
26. Rick Porcello - Angels
27. Yasiel Puig - Giants
28. Alex Wood - Diamondbacks
29. Kole Calhoun - Royals
30. Michael Wacha - Brewers

Grant and Kenny clearly put a lot more thought and effort into their guess posts and I’m just dumb enough about the whole analytics-driven free agent market to not even have the desire to chance any guesses, but here I am crawling so that you can walk.

Guess away. Here is your template:

1. Gerrit Cole -
2. Anthony Rendon -
3. Stephen Strasburg
4. Zack Wheeler -
5. Josh Donaldson -
6. Madison Bumgarner -
7. Nicholas Castellanos -
8. Hyun-Jin Ryu -
9. Marcell Ozuna -
10. Didi Gregorius -
11. Dallas Keuchel -
12. Cole Hamels -
13. Michael Pineda -
14. Mike Moustakas -
15. Kyle Gibson -
16. Tanner Roark
17. Julio Teheran -
18. Will Harris -
19. Drew Pomeranz -
20. Wade Miley -
21. Corey Dickerson -
22. Travis d’Arnaud -
23. Daniel Hudson -
24. Avisail Garcia -
25. Howie Kendrick -
26. Rick Porcello -
27. Yasiel Puig -
28. Alex Wood -
29. Kole Calhoun -
30. Michael Wacha -

Good luck! Remember: everybody will read this and everybody will be judging you.