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Wednesday BP, 1/16/19

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Oakland Athletics v San Francisco Giants Photo by Stephen Lam/Getty Images

Sorry for not getting this up sooner. Here’s some more over/under, this time using Steamer Projections for pitchers.

Are you taking the over or under for these top 5 innings & strikeout totals in 2019?

Madison Bumgarner - 203 IP | 183 K

Jeff Samardzija - 165 IP | 134 K

Andrew Suarez - 158 IP | 130 K

Dereck Rodriguez - 159 IP | 124 K

Derek Holland - 133 IP | 120 K

For Bumgarner, that’s basically a healthy season projection with a K/9 of 8.11, about where it was in 2017.

Samardzija’s feels the most optimistic just because of that innings total. Like Bumgarner, he’s projected to have a K/9 (7.31) lower than his career average (8.1), but similar to his 2016 (7.4). If I were you, I’d take the under here.

Suarez is projected to have basically the same season as 2018 (160.1 IP | 130 K). Rodriguez is projected to have more innings, but Steamer says that 6.8 K/9 he sported last year is about where we can expect him to be once again.

Derek Holland pitched 171.1 innings and struck out 169, so this conservative, meager projection demonstrates just how much the full career factors into it. Steamer doesn’t think that K/9 will be 8.9 again, but it does think the bounce back (6.3 K/9 in his prior three seasons) is real or at least sustainable in limited innings. What do you think?