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Wednesday BP, 6/13/18

The Giants are right where they’d planned to be.

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MLB: San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The entire point of building a .500 team is that if it gets lucky, then you have a winner on your hands. The Giants might not luck their way into a 15-game winning streak, but they might just luck themselves into the second wild card if enough teams across the league fall on their faces. It’s the 2010 NL West Principle, and it’s the only gambit a 98-loss team that won’t ever rebuild had left to play.

Here’s Bobby Evans talking about how the Giants will never rebuild:

So, even though the Marlins held the Giants to 3 hits yesterday (the first time they’ve held an opponent under 4 hits this season), the Giants are still right where they want to be.

In the May 25th BP, I suggested:

When the Giants finally return home, they’ll be facing the Phillies and Arizona before heading back out on the road for 10 more games. But then all but two of the remaining games in the month will be at home and against the Marlins, Padres, and Rockies. Figure 3-3 on that first part of the home stand, 4-6 on that road trip (@ Washington, @ Miami, @ Los Angeles), and they’re at 33-39. Win that next home stand with, say, a 6-4 record, and the Giants end June going into Arizona and at 39-43. Not ideal, but not dead. I think that’s probably the best case scenario.

I think you’d agree that a record of 33-39 after this road trip would now be considered a total disaster. After taking 2 out of the 3 in Washington, sweeps in Miami and against the Dodgers are practically backbreaking. The road record would be too terrible and impossible to ignore.

And if they go into Arizona with a record of 39-43, they’ll be at best third place in the division and maybe even behind Colorado for fourth place. But this is the Giants, and they would be thrilled to have that record. They were 31-51 after 82 games last season, after all, so they’d definitely consider their offseason plan to still be successful.

But Bumgarner’s alerady back — my prediction was based on the notion that he’d be back in a couple of weeks. And Brandon Belt is set to return soonish.

There’s a very good chance the Giants are 40-42 or 41-41 at this point instead, and we’re right back to the 2010 NL West Principle.

We’ll know in about eight weeks if the Giants’ crazy plan still has momentum. In the meantime, please don’t lose a series to the Marlins, you idiots.

When the Giants do finally return home next week, LGBT Night (::record scratch:: presented by negligent monster PG&E?) at AT&T Park will be Thursday, June 21st. StubHub has tickets for the game starting at $6! And there are still tickets under $50 for the August 11th Bonds Retirement Ceremony game.