Okay, I’ve got to admit, I’m getting suspicious.
Our sister site Beyond The Box Score did a little aggregation of some of the major mock drafts leading to Monday’s first round, and there’s something a little interesting going on.
Four of the five mock drafts have the same top three players, and only one of those four flip-flopped the #4 and #5 picks compared to the others. The consistent Top 5?
- Detroit - Casey Mize
- San Francisco - Joey Bart
- Philadelphia - Alec Bohm
- White Sox - Nick Madrigal
- Cincinnati - Brady Singer
The outlier? Draftsite.com, which is way off from everyone else, with Bart dropping all the way out of the Top 5 and Matt Liberatore being the Giants pick.
You might notice that perhaps the biggest site, BaseballAmerica.com, is missing from the list. Don’t worry, their last mock draft is exactly the same as the others. So was the last mock draft from ESPN’s Keith Law.
For a draft with just one sure-thing pick and a wide-ranging group of #2 candidates, this is a suspicious coalescing of mock drafts. 6 of 7 mock drafts agree with who the Giants are going to take? These aren’t dentists! And the Giants are infamously one of the most difficult teams to read and predict. After all, last year’s #19 pick Heliot Ramos was a very late climber into the rankings and rumors (albeit at a much harder draft slot to predict).
Maybe some of these sites are re-reporting the same reports about Bart that have been going around for weeks. It wouldn’t be the first time the online baseball media began re-reporting itself into a circle.
So, with four days left, I’m going to say the surest thing I can say right now: The Giants are absolutely, most definitely, not taking Joey Bart.
Who will they take? Well, if the Tigers somehow skip on Mize (for Bart), the Giants will almost assuredly take him…barring injury discovery. For instance, Buster Posey was highly ranked by most people in 2008, but fell to #5 because of money concerns. If the Tigers decide to save money, the Giants likely won’t be afraid to match the bonus demands, just like they weren’t in 2008.
If not? I want to say Alec Bohm, and he would fit a lot of what the Giants need, but somehow I feel like it’s not going to happen. I’d give it an 74.5% chance that it’s Brady Singer, a clean pitcher who could move quickly in the system, and a 24.5% on Liberatore because that curveball is bananas and if the Giants aren’t in love with it, they could become in love with it.
And a 1% chance they take Madrigal and troll the sports world that said the Giants were out on him a month ago and no one has questioned it since.
That said, the last few mock drafts from the Major Sites will hit in the next few days. Maybe they’ll show changes as well.
But…Singer. That’s what I’m feeling.
One Pick Out Of Contention
Mike Vasil wasn’t in competition for the #2 pick, but he was ranked in the mid-20’s on most lists and would have likely been a first round pick on talent alone. However, he did a classy move and officially removed himself from contention when he decided to go to school. That’s one team that won’t have a wasted pick on a player who was already convinced he’d go to college.
Good on the kid. And we’ll see him in the draft in a couple of years, for sure. (But learn how to format that image!)
Mock Draft Contest On Reddit!
One of the places you might find me posting other than here is over on Reddit, and the /r/MLBDraft subreddit has a Mock Draft Contest with a prize of a MLB.com gift card. Not a lot, but it’s something.
All you need to do is pick the first 35 picks (or do the best at picking them).
Just remember, not Joey Bart at #2, and you’ll do fine.
MLB.com’s Best Tools
With the leadup to the draft almost done, MLB.com has reached the point it has started publishing the Best Tools, which you can read by clicking on this link. There are no surprises here. You can also find the best tools by position at the link, which will go deeper into the possibilities.
But, at this point, it’s just a matter of waiting. 4 PM Pacific time on Monday, June 4th the draft begins.