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What If: Carlos Beltrán Trade Edition

The following post is predicated on the rumor that the San Francisco Giants could have included either Gary Brown or Zack Wheeler in return for Carlos Beltrán. This "What if" scenario involves the Giants including Brown instead of Wheeler.

In July, 2011 the Giants traded with the New York Mets to acquire Beltrán. Seven years later, Giants fans' views of Beltrán are mixed, to say the least, and I would argue that the inclusion of Wheeler was a turning point in the Giants ending up in their current situation.

So even though the Giants won two World Series after this trade, let's look at why the team included Wheeler over Brown, and how it impacted the Giants' draft and free agency strategies over the next five seasons.

Case for Trading Wheeler Over Brown

In 2011, including Wheeler instead of Brown was a no-brainer decision based on the Giants' current strengths and needs. After all, nine months earlier the Giants won the World Series largely because of the performances of four homegrown pitchers (Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sánchez).

In the 2010 playoffs, those four pitchers combined for 99 IP, 24 ER (2.18 ERA), 96 SO (8.7 SO9) and 30 BB (2.7 BB9). As good as they were collectively, let's look at them individually in 2010:

Name 2010 Age 2010 ERA- 2010 fWAR Accolades Through 2011
Madison Bumgarner 20 78 1.7 11th place Cy Young voting in 2011
Matt Cain 25 82 4.0 All-Star in 2009, 2011; 12th place Cy Young voting in 2010; 200+ IP in 2007-2011
Tim Lincecum 26 89 4.3 Cy Young awards in 2008, 2009; All-Star in 2008-2011; 200+ IP in 2008-2011
Jonathan Sánchez 27 80 2.3 Threw no-hitter in 2009

Throw in the emergence of Ryan Vogelsong (an All-Star in 2011), and the Giants seemed covered at starting pitcher.

Meanwhile, the team was in an offensive rut in 2011, hence the need for Beltrán. Buster Posey was out for the season, Pablo Sandoval was in a rebound season but still a question mark, and Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford had yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Brown represented hope for building a homegrown offense.

Case for Trading Brown Over Wheeler

It doesn't take the benefit of hindsight to know that Wheeler had the higher ceiling of the two players. In a vacuum (devoid of minor league strengths and needs), I would want to keep the better player.

Wheeler was drafted higher (#6 overall vs. #24), he was the higher rated prospect in 2011 (#55 on Baseball America vs. unranked), and while he was seen as a mid-rotation starter, Brown was a serviceable center fielder (speed and glove, no power or arm).

Once Wheeler was traded, the Giants' prospect list became very position player heavy. The highest ranked pitcher, Eric Surkamp, had a 160 ERA- and more walks than strikeouts in his six start Giants debut in 2011, which ended up being his best season.

Most importantly, did the Giants actually have any confidence in Gary Brown? The team traded for two outfielders (Melky Cabrera and Ángel Pagán, giving up Sánchez for the former and further depleting the rotation) in the 2011 off-season, and a third (Hunter Pence) at the 2012 trade deadline. Brown peaked statistically in 2011, didn't make his MLB debut until 2014, and was designated for assignment in March, 2015.

The Trade Aftermath

In an unpredictable development, outside of Bumgarner and one season for Cain (2012), the homegrown starters fell off a cliff after 2011. Even worse, the team was paying eight figures to Cain and Lincecum until 2015 for mediocre performance, so a minimum salary Wheeler would have come in handy.

On the offensive side, Posey became an MVP in 2012, Belt and Crawford became legit All-Stars (as well as Joe Panik and Matt Duffy), and the offense became a strength with the rotation a need. By 2013, the Giants needed Wheeler much more than Brown.

The lack of quality rotation depth had two impacts:

  1. In the 2015 off-season, the Giants tired of filling the rotation with past-their-prime veterans (Tim Hudson, Jake Peavy) and spent over $200 million on Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Both of those contracts are devastating for today's team because of player performance/injuries and the money/years remaining (way worse than extensions for the homegrown position players).
  2. The Giants drafted starting pitchers in the first round in 2011 (Kyle Crick), 2012 (Chris Stratton), 2014 (Tyler Beede) and 2015 (Phil Bickford). While all of these players still have a chance to make an MLB impact, it's definitely debatable whether they were the best players available or filling the team's greatest need.

Wheeler just had his first peak MLB season in 2018, and carries his own "what ifs" because of his injury history (thank you, Mets training staff). But if he's still on the team when Cain and Lincecum's downfalls begins, maybe the Giants don't make such panic moves.

Regardless, it's hard to defend trading the #6 overall pick with the higher ceiling if the other team is willing to accept an inferior player instead.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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