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There are still people who think the Giants can trade for Giancarlo Stanton

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Let’s explain one last time why they’re wrong.

MLB: Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants Andrew Villa-USA TODAY Sports

Giancarlo Stanton has as many home runs at AT&T Park this season as Buster Posey. He has more than Hunter Pence or Brandon Crawford. He has as many as Jarrett Parker, Eduardo Nuñez, and Ty Blach put together. It’s understandable why people want Stanton on the Giants. I want Stanton on the Giants. You want Stanton on the Giants.

Once again, I regret to inform you that it isn’t going to happen.

We looked at this last month, and the conclusions are the same, except we have a new, valuable piece of information. According to Jeff Passan, Stanton cleared revocable waivers. That means that all 29 teams had a chance to claim the 10 years, $295 million left on Stanton’s contract, with the only risk being that the Marlins would say, “Eh, just take him.” All 29 teams decided that was too much risk, including the Giants.

It’s possible that Major League Baseball let teams know that claiming Stanton could mess up the pending Marlins sale, so they were STRONGLY ENCOURAGED not to claim him. If the new owners want to deal Stanton, that’s their prerogative. Until then, hands off. I don’t think that’s too wacky of a conspiracy theory. It’s not collusion. It’s just every team arriving at the same conclusion under implicit threats. Totally different.

But without any evidence of that, I’m forced to assume that the Giants were one of the 29 teams that had a chance to open trade talks with the Marlins, and the only downside is that they would be responsible for Stanton’s remaining contract. They refused to risk that downside.

This brings us to the Giancarlo Stanton paradox, and it goes something like this:

If the Marlins are willing to send money along with Giancarlo Stanton, the Giants will be interested. If the Marlins are willing to send money along with Giancarlo Stanton, so will other teams with more money and more prospects, so the Giants won’t get him.

It’s not complicated or obscure. We ran into a similar paradox with J.D. Martinez in the offseason, but this one is way more extreme. Here, we’ll go through it like it’s a mobius strip.

  1. The Giants have already declined Stanton’s full contract when it was presented to them on waivers.
  2. The Giants would be interested if Stanton didn’t cost so much, though.
  3. So would the Dodgers.
  4. The Dodgers have better prospects and more money to spend over the next several years.
  5. So do the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Cubs, and Phillies.
  6. Which means in order to outbid those teams, the Giants would have to take Stanton’s entire contract AND the Marlins’ only goal would have to be ditching said contract.
  7. Except the Giants have already declined Stanton’s full contract when it was presented to them on waivers.
  8. The Giants would be interested if Stanton didn’t cost so much, though.

Just keep spinning around and around. It never makes sense. I looked at all 30 teams that might want Stanton, and only a few of them made sense. None of them were the Giants.

The only way it makes sense — and I mean only — is if the teams in baseball really weren’t supposed to claim Stanton because of the Marlins sale. Which doesn’t make sense, the more I think about it, because it would be far easier for MLB to tell the Marlins, “Hey, dummies, maybe don’t put Stanton on waivers because that could screw things up,” than it would be to force other teams to play along.

Still, if the Giants were secretly interested in Stanton at full price and there’s a good reason they didn’t claim him, then there’s a chance. But we’re talking Jim Carrey-meme kind of chances here. You’re piling the assumptions super high at this point, when the smartest assumption would be that the Giants don’t really have interest in 10 years, $295 million, and that’s why they didn’t claim him.

They would have interest in 10 years, $195 million. But so would the Dodgers, who have more prospects and money, so, whoooops, there he goes.

Unless the Giants would take the full contract, which is 10 years, $295 million.

Except the Giants don’t really have interest in 10 years, $295 million, and that’s why they didn’t claim him.

They would have interest in 10 years, $195 million. But so would the Dodgers, who have more prospects and money, so, whoooops, there he goes.

I’ll come back here in a few hours. You just keep doing that for a while, but I promise you, it doesn’t change. Giancarlo Stanton isn’t coming to the Giants. We know this because they had a chance to talk to the Marlins exclusively about a trade, and the only risk was that the Marlins would give him away without money or prospects changing teams. The Giants weren’t willing to take that risk.

Which means it’s over. The dream is over. Stop dreaming about Stanton on the Giants. It’s a fetch idea, but absolutely nothing about it makes sense. The fact that he cleared revocable waivers is our clearest indication yet.