The good folks at FanGraphs have released their top-100 prospects list, and before we get to the Giants on the list, it’s probably a good time to round up how the organization has fared on other top-100 lists.
- MLB, 2 (Tyler Beede, #88, and Christian Arroyo, #89)
- ESPN/Keith Law, 1 (Beede, #62)
- Minor League Ball, 1 (Beede, #82)
- Baseball America, 1 (Beede, #89)
- Baseball Prospectus, 0
It’s not the best showing, no. We’re a long way from 2010, when Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were both in the top-10 of some lists, but what have those guys done for the Giants lately? Prospect rankings are a fickle business.
FanGraphs, then, has the most optimistic top-100 list for the Giants in the industry, giving them two prospects and ranking Arroyo higher than anyone else.
69. Christian Arroyo, 3B
86. Tyler Beede, RHP
Nice. And, uh, 86. The showing for Arroyo is a welcome contrast, and it shows how far sabermetric prospecting has come, considering his numbers last year left a lot to be desired. From the scouting report:
I still believe in his bat and future defense at third enough to consider him a potential above-average, everyday player who is relatively close to the majors.
Beede’s coffer of four average-or-better pitches, led by a resurgent fastball, should allow him to attain mid-rotation starter status even if he doesn’t improve upon his fringey command.
[makes note to use “coffer” more]
One of my favorite parts about the FanGraphs list is that Dave Cameron comes around later to explain what the rankings mean to organizations. Like, in money. I’m too stupid to understand how they get these numbers, but that doesn’t mean it’s not fun to read.
Kevin and Steve have advanced the framework of previously published research on draft pick and prospect valuation, and have created a system that attempts to quantify the expected future value of a prospect based on how similarly rated prospects have performed in the major leagues. The model looks at the level of expected performance and the expected cost of a player during the years before he reaches free agency, and then estimates a player’s value to his organization during that time.
This is me, nodding like a college student who went to class for the first time in three weeks. According to their model, though, the Giants might expect Arroyo to give them $38 million in value, on average, and Beede to provide $14 million.
That can change quickly, as an optimistic, yet not outlandish two-win rookie season from Beede would likely surpass that valuation. But I’m sure Kurt Ainsworth had a much higher prospective valuation at one point, and, well, prospects.
Still, FanGraphs has spoken, and they like the Giants’ top prospects just a little bit better than most. It’s not the most exciting news, but I’ll take it. Oh, how I’ll take it.