The projected salaries for the six arbitration-eligible Giants

Every year, MLB Trade Rumors releases estimates of arbitration awards from around the league. Every year, the estimates prove to be uncannily accurate. This is useful offseason information, and it can help us figure out what the Giants might do with some of the players who will get substantial raises.

Will any of these players be on the move because of their estimated salaries? Will it affect their potential trade value? Let’s check.

Will Smith

Projected salary in arbitration
$2.5 million

Still a bargain, starting to get expensive, or no thanks?
Still a bargain. While there are no guarantees that he’ll be the same pitcher after Tommy John surgery, he should still be the Jeremy Affeldt replacement the Giants were expecting the whole time, and $2.5 million is far below what Smith would fetch on the open market.

Joe Panik

Projected salary in arbitration
$3.5 million

Still a bargain, starting to get expensive, or no thanks?
Still a bargain, of course. This is why Panik is one of the most tradeable players the Giants have, not that they’re especially keen on moving him. Next year (and the year after) might be a different story, but for now the Giants have an underpaid and qualified starter at second base.

I have no ideas what to make of his defensive numbers this year, considering they did not match up with the eyeball test, so I’m ignoring them.

Sam Dyson

Projected salary in arbitration
$4.6 million

Still a bargain, starting to get expensive, or no thanks?
Starting to get expensive at this point. Dyson was one of the brighter spots of the season, and you could see why the Giants took a chance on him. Dude throws 96 with sink. 96 WITH SINK. The sinker is what allows me to overlook the low strikeout rate, in case you were wondering.

At the same time, sometimes that sink can carry riiiiight over the plate, which is part of why he struggled with the Rangers. His ceiling is as a functional closer, but his likeliest value is likely going to be in middle relief. $4.6 million is a lotta clams for a middle reliever, so the Giants have to make sure that he’s one of the better ones out there. I’m not sure about that yet.

Cory Gearrin

Projected salary in arbitration
$1.6 million

Still a bargain, starting to get expensive, or no thanks?
Still a bargain. The peripherals and FIP weren’t so hot, but Gearrin has become a trusted member of the bullpen, and he’s not making much more than a first-year player.

Now if he could stop walking so many batters ...

Tim Federowicz

Projected salary in arbitration
$1.3 million

Still a bargain, starting to get expensive, or no thanks?
It’s a bargain if the Giants don’t re-sign Nick Hundley. And considering what they’ll probably offer Hundley, it might be a bargain that’s preferable. Federowicz is a perfectly cromulent backup catcher, and there’s a chance that his bat will be better than expected (based on his minor-league numbers).

Because only a portion of his salary will be guaranteed before spring training, I would think the Giants are interested in a deal with him, though probably at a lower salary than $1.3 million. I would also think he’s interested in exploring his options, considering he probably thought he was going to be the backup catcher last year.

Hunter Strickland

Projected salary in arbitration
$1.7 million

Still a bargain, starting to get expensive, or no thanks?
Still a bargain, even if he still struggles with left-handed hitters. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the Giants trade Strickland this offseason, considering they’ll have Melancon/Dyson/Crick/Gearrin already lined up, with Reyes Moronta and Roberto Gomez on the 40-man roster behind them.

That’s not a reflection on Strickland, but a reflection on his trade value. Other teams would love to have him at $1.7 million. Considering the options the Giants have and their needs, this might be the best chip they have. At least, the best trade chip they have that wouldn’t completely devastate the blueprint they’re trying to use.

My prediction is that everyone agrees to avoid arbitration with the exception of Federowicz, who is non-tendered. It’ll be a much more interesting decision with some of the relievers next year, but for now they’re all pretty reasonable.

Let’s now take a moment to bow our heads and remember that Yusmeiro Petit was non-tendered two years ago, and now he’s a stunning late-inning reliever now. Never forget, people.