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Baseball America releases top-10 Giants prospects list for 2017

Tyler Beede is at the top, and there are a couple of surprises in the top 10.

SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Between the dead of the hot stove and the pulse of spring training, we have prospect lists. Sweet, sweet prospect lists. The Giants don’t have an ultra-impressive cache of super-prospects, but they definitely have depth. It’s almost as helpful to look at the Baseball America top-10 prospects list and think about the players who didn’t make it to get an idea of the State of the Giants’ Farm. This is going to be a system that makes consensus hard.

For example, Baseball America just became the first major prospect ranker to put Tyler Beede over Christian Arroyo:

Baseball America’s 2017 Giants Top-10 Prospects

  1. Tyler Beede
  2. Christian Arroyo
  3. Chris Shaw
  4. Bryan Reynolds
  5. Andrew Suarez
  6. Ty Blach
  7. Joan Gregorio
  8. Sandro Fabian
  9. Aramis Garcia
  10. Steven Duggar

The top six or seven are going to worm their way into just about every top-10 list, while the rest of the list is almost like a prospect litmus test for what you’re really focused on. Ceiling? Likelihood of contributing to the majors at all? A secret sauce that combines the two? There’s no wrong answer, really, except for the ones I disagree with.

Here are the most salient sentences for all the scouting reports. You’ll need to subscribe to get the whole thing, and you probably should. Please note that Sandro Fabian was not alive when Brian Johnson hit his home run, if only because you don’t like being happy.

Tyler Beede

He will head to Triple-A Sacramento in 2017 for further refinement, but the Giants believe he has come far enough that he would be able to handle the big leagues in 2017.

Christian Arroyo

It’s easy to find scouts who project him as a plus hitter capable of hitting .280 or higher, but they see 10-home run potential to go with 35 doubles.

Chris Shaw

Shaw’s power potential gives him a chance to be a first-division first baseman, but he’ll need to improve his defense and hit tool to reach his ceiling.

Bryan Reynolds

Still, he uses a controlled swing, understands pitch sequencing and works counts to the point he is beginning to tap into his average power.

Andrew Suarez

All Suarez’s pitches play up because of his plus control (strikes with 70 percent of pitches, according to the Giants) and above-average command, though he would benefit by making hitters chase a pitch more often.

Ty Blach

Blach has also gained strength to the point where his fastball is now an average 91-92 mph. He tightened his curveball in 2016, making the formerly loopy pitch sharper, albeit still fringe-average.

Joan Gregorio

His age, wavering control and the Giants’ crowded Triple-A rotation all hint at a move to the bullpen, but he’s shown flashes of starter potential as well.

Sandro Fabian

Fabian is an advanced hitter for his age, and he loves the challenge of catching up to quality fastballs.

Aramis Garcia

Garcia has focused his attention on his defense in pro ball as a result of being labeled a bat-first catcher in high school and college.

Steven Duggar

The flatter path led to more consistent hard contact, which helped him spray the ball to all fields, particularly at Richmond, where he hit .321. Duggar’s strike-zone discipline enhances his above-average hit tool and drives his high on-base percentage.

Let’s combine some of the top-10 lists from around the prospect world and see what shakes out.

2017 Giants top 10 prospects

Rank Baseball America FanGraphs Christopher Crawford John Sickels Baseball Prospectus ESPN McC Community
Rank Baseball America FanGraphs Christopher Crawford John Sickels Baseball Prospectus ESPN McC Community
1 Tyler Beede Christian Arroyo Christian Arroyo Christian Arroyo Tyler Beede Tyler Beede Tyler Beede Christian Arroyo
2 Christian Arroyo Tyler Beede Bryan Reynolds Tyler Beede Christian Arroyo Christian Arroyo Christian Arroyo Tyler Beede
3 Chris Shaw Bryan Reynolds Tyler Beede Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds Chris Shaw
4 Bryan Reynolds Ty Blach Chris Shaw Ty Blach Chris Shaw Steven Duggar Steven Duggar Bryan Reynolds
5 Andrew Suarez Andrew Suarez Joan Gregorio Andrew Suarez Ty Blach Jordan Johnson Chris Shaw Ty Blach
6 Ty Blach Steven Okert Andrew Suarez Steven Okert Andrew Suarez Andrew Suarez Sandro Fabian Steven Duggar
7 Joan Gregorio Joan Gregorio Ty Blach Joan Gregorio Steven Duggar Heath Quinn Heath Quinn Austin Slater
8 Sandro Fabian Sandro Fabian Steven Duggar C.J. Hinojosa Sandro Fabian Sam Coonrod Joan Gregorio Heath Quinn
9 Aramis Garcia Chris Stratton Heath Quinn Chris Shaw Joan Gregorio Ty Blach Jordan Johnson Andrew Suarez
10 Steven Duggar Matt Krook Steven Okert Heath Quinn Heath Quinn Aramis Garcia Andrew Suarez Joan Gregorio

We still have Baseball Prospectus and ESPN’s Keith Law to come, as well as others that I’m probably forgetting, but you can see a pattern. Get Arroyo and Beede at the top, maybe with Reynolds mixed in. Plunk down the control-fueled lefties. Add in the power guy and the sinker guy. And then CHAOS for the bottom of the list.

As an irrational Austin Slater fan, I take umbrage with all these lists, but it’s important to remember that I don’t know what I’m talking about. Baseball America probably does, though, and they’re seeing the same things we are. The Giants don’t have a lot of top-100 prospects, but they sure have a lot of B and B- guys. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.