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New rule of thumb: When you see a post here with a lot of tables about the 2016 Giants, close the tab. It’s going to be filled with historically bad news, and you don’t need this. You have a lot going on.
But this post has a lot of tables because, well, I feed on your sadness and rage. You might have noticed that Santiago Casilla had a rough time in the ninth inning of Wednesday’s game, and that the Giants lost a game they were leading after eight innings. This was an unfortunate occurrence that displeased Giants fans.
The Giants are now 60-6 when leading after eight innings. Which is to say, 91 percent of the time they have the lead after eight innings, they win. That can’t be too bad, right?
It is. The average team in baseball wins 96 percent of their games when they lead after eight. That’s a big swing.
We’ve already talked about the Giants being historically feckless when it comes to their ninth-inning comebacks, too. They’re 0-55 when trailing after eight innings. That seems bad. Is it bad?
It is. The average team in baseball wins about three percent of their games when they trail after eight. That’s a big swing.
The combination of the two seems especially cruel. It seems rare to have a team that a) screws up at the plate in the ninth and b) screws up on the mound in the ninth.
Just how rare? That’s where the tables come in. They aren’t fun tables. With the help of Baseball-Reference, we can figure this out. This one shows the Giants’ record when trailing after eight innings since moving to San Francisco:
| Year | Wins when trailing after 8 | Losses when trailing after 8 | % |
| 2016 | 0 | 55 | 0.00% |
| 2015 | 2 | 68 | 2.86% |
| 2014 | 5 | 66 | 7.04% |
| 2013 | 6 | 69 | 8.00% |
| 2012 | 5 | 58 | 7.94% |
| 2011 | 3 | 65 | 4.41% |
| 2010 | 6 | 63 | 8.70% |
| 2009 | 1 | 57 | 1.72% |
| 2008 | 3 | 81 | 3.57% |
| 2007 | 2 | 71 | 2.74% |
| 2006 | 4 | 74 | 5.13% |
| 2005 | 3 | 71 | 4.05% |
| 2004 | 2 | 57 | 3.39% |
| 2003 | 1 | 55 | 1.79% |
| 2002 | 3 | 61 | 4.69% |
| 2001 | 3 | 61 | 4.69% |
| 2000 | 4 | 56 | 6.67% |
| 1999 | 1 | 60 | 1.64% |
| 1998 | 5 | 62 | 7.46% |
| 1997 | 3 | 61 | 4.69% |
| 1996 | 2 | 83 | 2.35% |
| 1995 | 7 | 69 | 9.21% |
| 1994 | 6 | 47 | 11.32% |
| 1993 | 3 | 53 | 5.36% |
| 1992 | 3 | 78 | 3.70% |
| 1991 | 5 | 74 | 6.33% |
| 1990 | 5 | 61 | 7.58% |
| 1989 | 5 | 58 | 7.94% |
| 1988 | 1 | 60 | 1.64% |
| 1987 | 2 | 55 | 3.51% |
| 1986 | 9 | 70 | 11.39% |
| 1985 | 3 | 85 | 3.41% |
| 1984 | 6 | 79 | 7.06% |
| 1983 | 2 | 67 | 2.90% |
| 1982 | 8 | 66 | 10.81% |
| 1981 | 2 | 44 | 4.35% |
| 1980 | 3 | 74 | 3.90% |
| 1979 | 1 | 76 | 1.30% |
| 1978 | 5 | 60 | 7.69% |
| 1977 | 3 | 78 | 3.70% |
| 1976 | 5 | 74 | 6.33% |
| 1975 | 5 | 71 | 6.58% |
| 1974 | 3 | 74 | 3.90% |
| 1973 | 5 | 67 | 6.94% |
| 1972 | 2 | 70 | 2.78% |
| 1971 | 6 | 62 | 8.82% |
| 1970 | 4 | 65 | 5.80% |
| 1969 | 3 | 50 | 5.66% |
| 1968 | 4 | 63 | 5.97% |
| 1967 | 5 | 56 | 8.20% |
| 1966 | 5 | 57 | 8.06% |
| 1965 | 3 | 59 | 4.84% |
| 1964 | 4 | 61 | 6.15% |
| 1963 | 3 | 58 | 4.92% |
| 1962 | 1 | 52 | 1.89% |
| 1961 | 3 | 54 | 5.26% |
| 1960 | 1 | 61 | 1.61% |
| 1959 | 3 | 60 | 4.76% |
| 1958 | 5 | 60 | 7.69% |
We already knew that every team before this one had at least one ninth-inning comeback, but you can see here that most Giants teams have four or five of them. The Mets are the only other team in baseball without one this season.
Now for the corollary. Here’s the Giants’ record when leading after eight innings since moving to San Francisco:
| Year | Wins when leading after 8 innings | Losses when leading after 8 | % |
| 2016 | 60 | 6 | 90.91% |
| 2015 | 76 | 4 | 95.00% |
| 2014 | 74 | 3 | 96.10% |
| 2013 | 61 | 3 | 95.31% |
| 2012 | 82 | 2 | 97.62% |
| 2011 | 66 | 2 | 97.06% |
| 2010 | 79 | 3 | 96.34% |
| 2009 | 78 | 2 | 97.50% |
| 2008 | 60 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 2007 | 65 | 4 | 94.20% |
| 2006 | 61 | 7 | 89.71% |
| 2005 | 64 | 6 | 91.43% |
| 2004 | 81 | 4 | 95.29% |
| 2003 | 82 | 2 | 97.62% |
| 2002 | 79 | 2 | 97.53% |
| 2001 | 76 | 5 | 93.83% |
| 2000 | 85 | 1 | 98.84% |
| 1999 | 78 | 8 | 90.70% |
| 1998 | 73 | 3 | 96.05% |
| 1997 | 73 | 3 | 96.05% |
| 1996 | 60 | 2 | 96.77% |
| 1995 | 49 | 5 | 90.74% |
| 1994 | 46 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 1993 | 91 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 1992 | 59 | 3 | 95.16% |
| 1991 | 67 | 3 | 95.71% |
| 1990 | 72 | 6 | 92.31% |
| 1989 | 81 | 3 | 96.43% |
| 1988 | 74 | 1 | 98.67% |
| 1987 | 75 | 7 | 91.46% |
| 1986 | 66 | 2 | 97.06% |
| 1985 | 45 | 3 | 93.75% |
| 1984 | 51 | 5 | 91.07% |
| 1983 | 70 | 4 | 94.59% |
| 1982 | 66 | 3 | 95.65% |
| 1981 | 49 | 2 | 96.08% |
| 1980 | 64 | 4 | 94.12% |
| 1979 | 63 | 5 | 92.65% |
| 1978 | 73 | 2 | 97.33% |
| 1977 | 62 | 4 | 93.94% |
| 1976 | 58 | 1 | 98.31% |
| 1975 | 64 | 1 | 98.46% |
| 1974 | 61 | 6 | 91.04% |
| 1973 | 72 | 2 | 97.30% |
| 1972 | 59 | 3 | 95.16% |
| 1971 | 76 | 5 | 93.83% |
| 1970 | 71 | 4 | 94.67% |
| 1969 | 82 | 5 | 94.25% |
| 1968 | 72 | 4 | 94.74% |
| 1967 | 75 | 2 | 97.40% |
| 1966 | 77 | 5 | 93.90% |
| 1965 | 80 | 2 | 97.56% |
| 1964 | 70 | 4 | 94.59% |
| 1963 | 77 | 6 | 92.77% |
| 1962 | 93 | 4 | 95.88% |
| 1961 | 73 | 7 | 91.25% |
| 1960 | 70 | 2 | 97.22% |
| 1959 | 68 | 2 | 97.14% |
| 1958 | 63 | 5 | 92.65% |
The 2008 teams blew the most games by percentage, though that's because they just didn't have a lot of leads at all. Just eight Giants teams out of 58 have lost as many games as the 2016 Giants when leading through eight innings. And ...
... there are still 23 games left in the season.
So we have the basics. Yes, this Giants team is historically bad when trailing after eight innings. Yes, they’re historically bad when leading after eight innings. Just how rare is the combination?
For that, I developed the Pain Index, which is nothing more than:
losses when leading after 8 innings
-
wins when trailing after 8 innings
So the higher the number, the more painful the ninth innings in that season. How do the 2016 Giants rank?
| Year | Pain Index |
| 1999 | 7 |
| 2016 | 6 |
| 1987 | 5 |
| 1979 | 4 |
| 1961 | 4 |
| 2006 | 3 |
| 2005 | 3 |
| 1974 | 3 |
| 1963 | 3 |
| 1962 | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 |
| 2007 | 2 |
| 2004 | 2 |
| 2001 | 2 |
| 1983 | 2 |
| 1969 | 2 |
| 2009 | 1 |
| 2003 | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 |
| 1980 | 1 |
| 1977 | 1 |
| 1972 | 1 |
| 1960 | 1 |
| 1997 | 0 |
| 1996 | 0 |
| 1992 | 0 |
| 1988 | 0 |
| 1985 | 0 |
| 1981 | 0 |
| 1970 | 0 |
| 1968 | 0 |
| 1966 | 0 |
| 1964 | 0 |
| 1958 | 0 |
| 2011 | -1 |
| 2002 | -1 |
| 1984 | -1 |
| 1971 | -1 |
| 1965 | -1 |
| 1959 | -1 |
| 2014 | -2 |
| 1998 | -2 |
| 1995 | -2 |
| 1991 | -2 |
| 1989 | -2 |
| 2013 | -3 |
| 2012 | -3 |
| 2010 | -3 |
| 2008 | -3 |
| 2000 | -3 |
| 1993 | -3 |
| 1978 | -3 |
| 1973 | -3 |
| 1967 | -3 |
| 1976 | -4 |
| 1975 | -4 |
| 1982 | -5 |
| 1994 | -6 |
| 1986 | -7 |
Something to shoot for! The '16 Giants don’t have the top spot, but there are three weeks to go. With a little extra effort and determination, they can be the most frustrating Giants team in San Francisco history.
The 1999 Giants ruined my assumptions, as they were the all-time worst San Francisco team when leading after eight innings. The closer was Robb freaking Nen, which doesn’t make a lot of sense, but he had an especially bad year for him.
Joe Nathan was on the team. Makes you think.
Nen had a frustrating every-other-year thing going, and ‘99 was one of the worst seasons of his closing career. He didn’t just blow saves, either. He huffed and puffed and blew those saves down in the most soul-crushing way. Check out this three-run homer to Todd Hundley against the Dodgers, or the time he came up four runs to a bad Pirates team with a three-run lead, with the final three runs coming after two outs.
The team finished 86-76, in second place and out of the wild card race. Which sounds like a distinct possibility for this season. These teams might be kindred spirits. Time is a flat, windy circle.
The difference for me, though, is that stupid ‘99 team still had one lousy ninth-inning winning comeback. Wilson Delgado singled home Stan Javier to win the game, and everything was right with the team, at least for one day.
This Giants team doesn’t have that. Hands up if you’re optimistic that they will over the next three weeks.
Thank you for reading another installment of Stupid Tables That Make You Hate Baseball, presented by IKEA.
IKEA: Where you can put your own stupid tables together and hate everything
We’ll see you next time.