Every year, glutton for punishment Dave Cameron publishes his "Trade Value Rankings," which attempt to analyze which players from the minors and majors have the most trade value on the open market. One of the big factors is how good the player is right now, of course, but there are other questions. How good can he be? How much is he making? How long is he under contract?
In the list, the Giants have three players in the top 50: Joe Panik (#48), Buster Posey (#18), and Madison Bumgarner (#16). I think that's higher than Panik ranked last year and let me check yeah that's right. But, of course, the Giants aren't trading any of those cats. If they make a deal, they'll part with other players, likely not on the 25-man roster. The master relayed a quote from Bruce Bochy that says a lot:
Bruce Bochy:"Every time we talk trade, the first name they ask for is Tyler Beede"— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) July 17, 2015
That's about right. Of the prospects the Giants might conceivably trade, Beede has to be close to the top. Which means it's probably time to do a Giants-specific trade-value ranking, just to see where everyone slots. Note that these are almost certainly wrong, and I can't even make a good trade in my fantasy league, even though I have, like, six starting shortstops and Jimmy Nelson in the rotation.
1. Buster Posey
Still owed about five times more than Madison Bumgarner, and a couple years older, too, but I'll go with his uniqueness, both as a player and as a leader of men and future senator. Bumgarner should be great for years. Posey has a chance to redefine his position and make the ... well, I'm not going to jinx it.
2. Madison Bumgarner
Young, cheap, locked up, and excellent. A true ace and a Ford man.
3. Joe Panik
Can't argue that he's the third-most valuable. It's amazing what a difference a year (and a proven ability to hit in the majors) does.
4. Brandon Crawford
Over the other Brandon because good shortstops are hard to find. Good defensive shortstops who can hit are mythical creatures. He's basically a manticore with dreamy hair.
5. Brandon Belt
Under contract for another three years. Starting to get pricey, but not prohibitively so.
6. Andrew Susac
The first one on the list with a reasonable chance to be traded. He might not anchor a package for an ace under contract for a couple years, but he could probably help the Giants get a short-term solution for the rotation.
7. Matt Duffy
Has a chance to jump above Susac if he keeps hitting, but he's still kind of new to the world. He ranks up here because he's going to make peanuts for a few years. Literally peanuts. He feeds them to his cat.
8. Hunter Pence
Hard to rank a guy who hasn't played much this year, but would teams line up to pay him three years, $55 million after this season? I think they would, which means he's one of the few remaining high-priced players with any value.
9. Tyler Beede
First-round pedigree, encouraging results, and impressed scouts. He's probably the likeliest to move in a deal.
10. Christian Arroyo
I'd rank him over Beede on a prospect list, but Beede will be ready sooner, which I'll guess makes a difference in trade value. If you think I'm guessing now, just wait until the end of the list!
11. Chris Heston
More valuable to the Giants right now than he would be in a trade, and it isn't especially close. Teams would be wary of the Matt Shoemaker effect, but the Giants will be happy with the current production.
12. Adalberto Mejia
"Lefties are probably more valuable on the trade market or something, I don't know." - Branch Rickey, probably
13. Keury Mella
Maybe other teams are like me, always getting Mejia/Mella and Keury/Kendry confused, and they'll ask for one of these guys thinking they're the other one. Like Arroyo/Beede, I'd probably put Mella over Mejia on a prospect list.
14. Hunter Strickland
I don't know if the Giants would get this creative, but Strickland does have value as a power arm under contract for a long time. It's an interesting thought.
15. Santiago Casilla
Pretend the Giants were out of it, and they wanted to trade Casilla, whose option will almost certainly vest at $6.5 million for next year. Could they get prospects for him? Almost certainly. Then you have to guess if those prospects would have more trade value than Strickland or Mella or ... it's a tricky bit of accounting, but I'll put him right here.
16. Norichika Aoki
Same thing as above, just with different names. Aoki at $5,5 million is more than fair, and there would be plenty of teams interested. The Giants wouldn't deal him, of course. Probably because they're worried about my silly-picture business.
17. Gregor Blanco
If Pagan were five years younger, this would be interesting in the Strickland kind of way up there. As is, Blanco has trade value, considering he has a year left at just under $4 million, but he's more valuable to the Giants right now.
18. Aramis Garcia
Another high-pick pedigree, and he's starting to hit. Like, a lot. Considering how hard it is to find an offensive catcher, this might be too low of a ranking.
19. Kyle Crick
I still believe ... in Crick's trade value. To an extent. He's not going to anchor a deal, but he would add a ton of value as an additional part of a deal. He's not a throw-in; he's not a centerpiece. He's a curiosity, and those have value, too.
20. Kelvin Beltre
In every big deal, you'll see a guy like this -- a teenaged middle infielder with tools -- and when you look back on the deal, you'll wonder why you didn't make a bigger fuss out of losing him.
21. Johneshwy Fargas
Similar to Beltre, except he's doing well in Class-A, despite being young for his league. Most of these slots are interchangeable, especially down here.
22. Chase Johnson
Big, strong right-handers are the preferred currency of the San Francisco Giants. The exchange rate is kind of low, though.
23. Ty Blach
Safe arm, but not an overly exciting one. There are some teams that go for that.
24. George Kontos
Still cheap. Proven (kinda). The bit about Casilla bringing back prospects works here. I could see Kontos bringing back a Blach-type in a hypothetical deal the Giants wouldn't make, which means he deserves a spot around here.
25. Ryder Jones
Not going to lie. This is where the wild guessing really starts. He has power, and he's doing fine for his age. That, plus the draft pedigree, would make him a little popular.
26. Ehire Adrianza
Every team said thanks-but-no-thanks when he was offered to them on waivers for free in March, but I'll blame roster juggling and tunnel vision for that. Right now, though Adrianza is a shortstop with a great defensive reputation and an uncanny ability to hit Triple-A pitching. Someone would take a chance.
27. Hunter Cole
28. Austin Slater
Not entirely sure they're different people. They're both 22, they're both gritty utility types with a chance to do more, and they both have maximum 1993 baby names. Cole is hitting more in San Jose, but Slater has more time at second.
29. Clayton Blackburn
The Ty Blach of right-handers! Adjust for handedness, and he drops a few slots.
30. Ray Black
Eh, stick a reliever of your choice here, really. Steven Okert would work. So would Josh Osich. Black doesn't pitch much, but he still has the unteachable velocity.
The shocking part about making this? The players on the active roster who don't show up. There's no Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, or Jake Peavy. There's no Pagan, Lincecum, or Sergio Romo. There's a lotta dead money on this roster. Some of it is coming off the books, sure, but it's still impressive. I argued in favor of the Cain deal, so I'm not going to judge. I'm just going to marvel at it.
Thanks for reading. Now please do not make your own list. This is probably good enough. Okay, fine, make your own list or whatever. Just don't say it's better than this one.