The bad news: The Dodgers are projected by Baseball Prospectus to win the NL West by 13 games. I've been following this nerd stuff for well over a decade, and that's the largest gap between the first-place and second-place team I can remember. The Dodgers are projected to be the best team in the division, and it isn't close at all.
The good news: The Giants are still projected to win 84 games, good enough to host the NL Wild Card Game.
The bad news: They would host the Padres who sure would love to ruin the Giants' season and hop around AT&T Park like Super Balls dropped from an airplane.
The good news: The Giants are undefeated in the postseason when they aren't the best team in baseball, so this fits the trolling profile just fine.
There are nine teams projected between 79 and 84 wins, mind you, so don't start saving for your postseason tickets yet. We're all sitting here, trying to project baseball, and next season Todd Frazier will hit 50 homers, lead the Reds to the Central title, and win the MVP. Still, if you're wondering how the Giants look on paper, here's your answer. Alright. They look alright.
And the individual projections are out, too:
AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | WARP | |
Buster Posey | .300 | .366 | .472 | 19 | 4.5 |
Brandon Belt | .264 | .343 | .438 | 18 | 2.9 |
Joe Panik | .256 | .305 | .334 | 3 | 0.4 |
Casey McGehee | .248 | .306 | .352 | 8 | -0.7 |
Brandon Crawford | .238 | .303 | .353 | 8 | 2.2 |
Norichika Aoki | .270 | .329 | .346 | 2 | 0.8 |
Angel Pagan | .270 | .317 | .382 | 7 | 2.4 |
Hunter Pence | .269 | .322 | .430 | 19 | 2.6 |
IP | ERA | BB | SO | WARP | |
Madison Bumgarner | 195 | 3.09 | 41 | 183 | 2.6 |
Tim Hudson | 168 | 3.56 | 42 | 107 | 1.2 |
Matt Cain | 168 | 3.20 | 42 | 138 | 2.0 |
Jake Peavy | 148 | 3.42 | 33 | 127 | 1.4 |
Tim Lincecum | 156 | 3.91 | 57 | 154 | 0.3 |
Ryan Vogelsong | 86 | 4.44 | 30 | 68 | -0.4 |
I don't know why Bumgarner's projection is so underwhelming, but I'll take it in conjunction with a return to form from Cain.
The Giants also have five starters with a projected slugging percentage under .400. Five! In short, Baseball Prospectus is reinforcing what what I've been saying for a couple months now: The Giants are all 'bout on-base, 'bout on-base, no slugging. They're all 'bout on-base, 'bout on-base, no slugging. They're all 'bout on-base, 'bout o
The last time the Giants had as many as four players who slugged under .400 with 400 plate appearances or more? That would be the 1993 team, which won 103 games. The last time they had as many as three was last year, when they won the World Series. so I don't mind that they're all 'bout on-base, 'bout on-base, no s
Sorry. Last time, I promise.
The good news is that if McGehee really is that bad, the Giants will look to upgrade. If there's a serious problem with the offense or rotation, Brian Sabean will wheel and/or deal. All the Giants need to do is get to the deadline in the middle of a playoff race. Baseball Prospectus thinks they can, or at least that they have a shot.