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Giants playoff odds update, 9/19

Do you need one of these every day? Sure you do.

Christian Petersen

If the Giants don't at least make the play-in to the playoffs, it will be a monumental collapse that we'll talk about for decades. Good morning, this is your daily playoff odds update.

As long as the Brewers are still alive, it makes sense to do this so the old tables don't get stale. First, the odds from the egg-people:

Baseball Prospectus
Playoffs: 99.6%
Division: 14.4%
World Series champs: 6.0%

Playoffs: 99.8%
Division: 8.9%
World Series champs: 4.4%

For the mathematically disinclined, that means that every 1,000 seasons, the Giants would screw this up in about two of them. Man, I want to read an article from just one of those alternate dimensions, but I sure as hell don't want to write it.

And now, to the tables. Stupid Cubs.

If the Dodgers go … Then the Giants would have to do at least this to tie them …
9-0 Nope
8-1 Nope
7-2 N/A (impossible!)
6-3 9-1
5-4 8-2
4-5 7-3
3-6 6-4
2-7 5-5
1-8 4-6
0-9 3-7

If the Giants go … Then the Brewers would have to do at least this to tie them …
10-0 Nope
9-1 Nope
8-2 Nope
7-3 Nope
6-4 Nope
5-5 Nope
4-6 9-0
3-7 8-1
2-8 7-2
1-9 6-3
0-10 5-4

The magic number is five. The Giants and Brewers have a combined 19 games left, and any combination of five Giants wins or Brewers losses gets them into the play-in to the playoff. Of course, an 1-9 run from the Giants combined with a 9-1 streak from the Braves messes everything up, too, but can you imagine an unlikely Braves comeback like that, a complete collapse that the Padres have a huge hand in? Yeah, ha ha, I'd like to see that happen.

Ha ha ha.