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NL West and playoff odds update

They're so close, so far away.

By Grant Brisbee
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Before the Dodgers play on Thursday night, it made sense to put up a quick update on the Giants' playoff odds. Remember: They're fighting to make a one-game playoff that would probably send them into a five-game series against the Dodgers, which sounds horrimazing.

First, the odds:

Baseball Prospectus
Playoffs: 99.5%
Division: 19.7%
World Series champs: 6.3%

FanGraphs
Playoffs: 99.5%
Division: 13.6%
World Series champs: 4.7%

And the tables:

If the Dodgers go … Then the Giants would have to do at least this to tie them …
10-0 Nope
9-1 Nope
8-2 10-0
7-3 9-1
6-4 8-2
5-5 7-3
4-6 6-4
3-7 5-5
2-8 4-6
1-9 3-7
0-10 2-8

If the Giants go … Then the Brewers would have to do at least this to tie them …
10-0 Nope
9-1 Nope
8-2 Nope
7-3 Nope
6-4 Nope
5-5 10-0
4-6 9-1
3-7 8-2
2-8 7-3
1-9 6-4
0-10 5-5


Thoughts:

  • I like the 5-5 option for the Dodgers, combined with a 7-3 from the Giants. Seems like you could go through every season and find stretches like that for every team.

  • Of course, that would mean a one-game playoff to see who gets in the one-game playoff to see if the Giants and Dodgers could play again in the playoffs. That's too much. I'm already having a panic attack

  • Edit: I was thinking of the standings a couple days ago. The Giants would not play the Dodgers if they won the wild card game, if the standings hold. They would play the Nationals for the right to play the Dodgers in the NLCS. Now I'm really having a panic attack.

  • Unless I'm having a Panik attack, which would be rad.

  • The Giants can play like absolute jackasses -- 1-9! -- and the Brewers would still have to play over .500 ball for the rest of the way. 

  • I'm probably more in favor of the Dodgers finishing 2-8 and the Giants, Brewers, and Pirates all finishing 8-2, to be honest.

Before the season, I think I would have been a little disappointed by the Giants being two games out with 10 to play, but not much. In May, I would have thrown a vase at you if you would told me that the Giants were going to be two games out with 10 to play. In July, I would have kissed you and put flowers in that vase.

This is a strange hobby we have, everyone.

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