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Pricing the free-agent pitchers and outfielders

Jason Miller

Well, you knew this was coming.

When Tim Lincecum signed for two years and $lulz, it seemed like a dramatic overpay. It still seems like a dramatic overpay. But by March, it will seem like just one of many. Jon Heyman talked to an agent and GM about predicted values for some of the free agents. It was kind of horrifying. Here's the list of predictions. We'll focus on the only players who might interest the Giants, the outfielders and starting pitchers.

Jacoby Ellsbury - Agent: 7 years, $146M. GM: 6 years, $100M

Shin-Soo Choo - Agent: 6 years, $110M. GM: 6 years, $110M

Nelson Cruz - Agent: 1 year, $14.1M (takes qualifying offer). GM: 4 years, $60M

Curtis Granderson - Agent: 3 years, $45M. GM: 5 years, $70M

Carlos Beltran - Agent: 2 years, $26M. GM: 2 years, $37.5M

Marlon Byrd - Agent: 2 years, $17M. GM: 2 years, $15M

Nate McLouth - Agent: 2 yrs, $9M. GM: 1 yr, $5M

Raul Ibanez - Agent: 1 year, $4.5M. GM: 1 year, $10M

David Murphy - Agent: 2 years, $10M. GM: 1 year, $5M

Mike Morse - Agent: 1 year, $5M. GM: 1 year, $5M

Chris Young - Agent: 1 year, $3.75M. GM: 1 year, $5M

Masahiro Tanaka - Agent:$125M ($60M posting; 6 years, $65M). GM: $150M ($75M posting; 6 years, $75M)

Matt Garza - Agent: 4 years, $66M. GM: 5 years, $85M

Ervin Santana - Agent: 5 years, $77M. GM: 5 years, $75M

Ubaldo Jimenez - Agent: 4 years, $60M. GM: 4 years, $65M

Ricky Nolasco - Agent: 3 years, $38M. GM: 4 years, $52M

Bronson Arroyo - Agent: 3 years, $36M.GM: 3 years, $30M

Jason Vargas - Agent: 3 years, $32M.GM: 2 years, $20M

Scott Feldman - Agent: 2 years, $14M.GM: 2 years, $18M

Phil Hughes - Agent: 1 year, $7.5M. GM: 3 years, $30M

Hiroki Kuroda - Agent: 1 year, $16M. GM: 1 year, $15M

Scott Kazmir - Agent: 2 years, $17.5M.GM: 1 year, $10M

Bruce Chen - Agent: 2 years, $9M. GM: 2 years, $15M

A.J. Burnett - Agent: 1 year, $13M. GM: 1 year, $12M

Bartolo Colon - Agent: 1 year, $13M. GM: 1 year, $8M

Josh Johnson - Agent: 1 year, $11M. GM: 1 year, $10M

Jason Hammel - Agent: 1 year, $6M. GM: 1 year, $8M

Paul Maholm - Agent: 2 years, $15M, GM: 2 years, $15M

Tim Hudson - Agent: 1 year, $10M. GM: 1 year, $7M

Roy Halladay - Agent: 1 year, $5M. GM: 1 year, $8M

Dan Haren - Agent: 1 year, $6.5M. GM: 1 year, $8M.

Mike Pelfrey - Agent: 2 years, $11.5M, GM: 1 year, $5M

Scott Baker - Agent: 1 year, $4M. GM: 1 year, $8M

Gavin Floyd - Agent: 1 year, $4M. GM: 2 years, $18M

Here's the answer key:

Jacoby Ellsbury - NOPE

Shin-Soo Choo - NOPE

Nelson Cruz - NOPE

Curtis Granderson - NOPE

Carlos Beltran - okay, maybe

Marlon Byrd - NOPE

Nate McLouth - NOPE

Raul Ibanez - GTFO

David Murphy - NOPE

Mike Morse - NOPE

Chris Young - Yes, please

Masahiro Tanaka - … RELUCTANT NOPE

Matt Garza - NOPE

Ervin Santana - NOPE

Ubaldo Jimenez - NOPE

Ricky Nolasco - NOPE


Jason Vargas - NOPE

Scott Feldman - I guess, whatever

Phil Hughes - AGENT YES, GM NOPE

Hiroki Kuroda - YES

Scott Kazmir - NOPE

Bruce Chen - NOPE

A.J. Burnett - OKAY

Bartolo Colon - SURE

Josh Johnson - FINE

Jason Hammel - I CAN DIG IT

Paul Maholm - NOPE

Tim Hudson - YES, PLEASE

Roy Halladay - WHY NOT?


Mike Pelfrey - NOPE

Scott Baker - EH

Gavin Floyd - AGENT YES, GM NOPE

Sorry/not sorry about the caps. Felt good. Try typing NOPE in all-caps like that. Strangely cathartic.

Really, there's nothing in the outfield other than Chris Young. Beltran costs a pick and a bajillion dollars. I'd pay it; the Giants wouldn't. Unless there's something cooking on the trade market, it's Young or bust. Visit my tumblr and make a donation or just leave a message of support.

The pitchers, though. There are three categories: Masahiro Tanaka, Wacky Town, and Nordstrom Rack. The Giants desperately need to stay away from Wacky Town. Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez are in Wacky Town. The mayor of Wacky Town bangs a squeaky gavel, and the cars walk around on legs with knobby knees. Stay away from Wacky Town.

Nordstrom Rack has good deals, though. In that list of pitchers is someone who will make the All-Star team for a reasonable amount of money. He's surrounded by pitchers that will struggle or get hurt. It will all seem very clear in retrospect.

That's still where the Giants should go. Gimme two from Nordstrom Rack.

You knew the names of the free agents, but here are the predicted contracts. That Ubaldo guess can't be serious, can it? Can it?

This is horrifying.