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Well, you knew this was coming.
When Tim Lincecum signed for two years and $lulz, it seemed like a dramatic overpay. It still seems like a dramatic overpay. But by March, it will seem like just one of many. Jon Heyman talked to an agent and GM about predicted values for some of the free agents. It was kind of horrifying. Here's the list of predictions. We'll focus on the only players who might interest the Giants, the outfielders and starting pitchers.
Outfielders
Jacoby Ellsbury - Agent: 7 years, $146M. GM: 6 years, $100MShin-Soo Choo - Agent: 6 years, $110M. GM: 6 years, $110M
Nelson Cruz - Agent: 1 year, $14.1M (takes qualifying offer). GM: 4 years, $60M
Curtis Granderson - Agent: 3 years, $45M. GM: 5 years, $70M
Carlos Beltran - Agent: 2 years, $26M. GM: 2 years, $37.5M
Marlon Byrd - Agent: 2 years, $17M. GM: 2 years, $15M
Nate McLouth - Agent: 2 yrs, $9M. GM: 1 yr, $5M
Raul Ibanez - Agent: 1 year, $4.5M. GM: 1 year, $10M
David Murphy - Agent: 2 years, $10M. GM: 1 year, $5M
Mike Morse - Agent: 1 year, $5M. GM: 1 year, $5M
Chris Young - Agent: 1 year, $3.75M. GM: 1 year, $5M
Pitchers
Masahiro Tanaka - Agent:$125M ($60M posting; 6 years, $65M). GM: $150M ($75M posting; 6 years, $75M)Matt Garza - Agent: 4 years, $66M. GM: 5 years, $85M
Ervin Santana - Agent: 5 years, $77M. GM: 5 years, $75M
Ubaldo Jimenez - Agent: 4 years, $60M. GM: 4 years, $65M
Ricky Nolasco - Agent: 3 years, $38M. GM: 4 years, $52M
Bronson Arroyo - Agent: 3 years, $36M.GM: 3 years, $30M
Jason Vargas - Agent: 3 years, $32M.GM: 2 years, $20M
Scott Feldman - Agent: 2 years, $14M.GM: 2 years, $18M
Phil Hughes - Agent: 1 year, $7.5M. GM: 3 years, $30M
Hiroki Kuroda - Agent: 1 year, $16M. GM: 1 year, $15M
Scott Kazmir - Agent: 2 years, $17.5M.GM: 1 year, $10M
Bruce Chen - Agent: 2 years, $9M. GM: 2 years, $15M
A.J. Burnett - Agent: 1 year, $13M. GM: 1 year, $12M
Bartolo Colon - Agent: 1 year, $13M. GM: 1 year, $8M
Josh Johnson - Agent: 1 year, $11M. GM: 1 year, $10M
Jason Hammel - Agent: 1 year, $6M. GM: 1 year, $8M
Paul Maholm - Agent: 2 years, $15M, GM: 2 years, $15M
Tim Hudson - Agent: 1 year, $10M. GM: 1 year, $7M
Roy Halladay - Agent: 1 year, $5M. GM: 1 year, $8M
Dan Haren - Agent: 1 year, $6.5M. GM: 1 year, $8M.
Mike Pelfrey - Agent: 2 years, $11.5M, GM: 1 year, $5M
Scott Baker - Agent: 1 year, $4M. GM: 1 year, $8M
Gavin Floyd - Agent: 1 year, $4M. GM: 2 years, $18M
Here's the answer key:
Outfielders
Jacoby Ellsbury - NOPEShin-Soo Choo - NOPE
Nelson Cruz - NOPE
Curtis Granderson - NOPE
Carlos Beltran - okay, maybe
Marlon Byrd - NOPE
Nate McLouth - NOPE
Raul Ibanez - GTFO
David Murphy - NOPE
Mike Morse - NOPE
Chris Young - Yes, please
Pitchers
Masahiro Tanaka - … RELUCTANT NOPEMatt Garza - NOPE
Ervin Santana - NOPE
Ubaldo Jimenez - NOPE
Ricky Nolasco - NOPE
Bronson Arroyo - ODDLY INTRIGUING, BUT NOPE
Jason Vargas - NOPE
Scott Feldman - I guess, whatever
Phil Hughes - AGENT YES, GM NOPE
Hiroki Kuroda - YES
Scott Kazmir - NOPE
Bruce Chen - NOPE
A.J. Burnett - OKAY
Bartolo Colon - SURE
Josh Johnson - FINE
Jason Hammel - I CAN DIG IT
Paul Maholm - NOPE
Tim Hudson - YES, PLEASE
Roy Halladay - WHY NOT?
Dan Haren - SOUNDS GOOD
Mike Pelfrey - NOPE
Scott Baker - EH
Gavin Floyd - AGENT YES, GM NOPE
Sorry/not sorry about the caps. Felt good. Try typing NOPE in all-caps like that. Strangely cathartic.
Really, there's nothing in the outfield other than Chris Young. Beltran costs a pick and a bajillion dollars. I'd pay it; the Giants wouldn't. Unless there's something cooking on the trade market, it's Young or bust. Visit my tumblr 4everchrisyoung.tumblr.com and make a donation or just leave a message of support.
The pitchers, though. There are three categories: Masahiro Tanaka, Wacky Town, and Nordstrom Rack. The Giants desperately need to stay away from Wacky Town. Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez are in Wacky Town. The mayor of Wacky Town bangs a squeaky gavel, and the cars walk around on legs with knobby knees. Stay away from Wacky Town.
Nordstrom Rack has good deals, though. In that list of pitchers is someone who will make the All-Star team for a reasonable amount of money. He's surrounded by pitchers that will struggle or get hurt. It will all seem very clear in retrospect.
That's still where the Giants should go. Gimme two from Nordstrom Rack.
You knew the names of the free agents, but here are the predicted contracts. That Ubaldo guess can't be serious, can it? Can it?
This is horrifying.