Why the A's should trade us Matt Holliday (or possibly why I am an idiot)

Dear Diary,

I've been thinking this one over for a little bit. I just knew there had to be something I was missing. It just shouldn't make sense. It's never gonna happen; because it shouldn't make sense. But it seems to. At least to me....

The A's should trade us Matt Holliday for Randy Winn and a couple of decent prospects (not the fantastic 4 or Neal or Barnes). This is absurd, right? The A's would never do this. What am I smoking? I should just delete this right now.

Except that I still can't get around the fact that it seems to make sense. Maybe I'm missing something...

So here's the reasoning.

Here is what Matt Holliday is worth to the A's: a half a season of production and 2 draft picks.

That half a season of production is pretty much worthless to the A's, who have no hope at making the post-season. They are not playing for this year. So that leaves the 2 draft picks as the only value left in Matt Holliday for the A's. If they are holding out for a package similar to what they gave up to get him, they aren't going to get anything but the draft picks.

This is where Randy Winn comes in. Who wouldn't swap Matt Holliday for Randy Winn? The defense is great. But he appears to be done as a hitter. I know he's always started off slow, but it does appear that age has caught up to him.

Randy is probably going to be a type A free agent, though. So the A's will get their two picks. That just leaves the half a season of production; something that is next to worthless to the A's but worth something to the Giants. How much is it worth? Not much, considering Holliday has been worth 1.9 WAR so far this season while Randy Winn has been worth 1.6 WAR.

Who is likelier to increase his production in the second half? Probably Holliday. This means that I would place his worth at two decent but not great prospects. (I am pretty terrible at gauging trade value so this might be too high or too low, what do you guys think?)

Why should the Giants do this trade? Because Holliday is likelier to be more valuable over the second half than Randy Winn is and they wouldn't be giving up too much.

Why should the A's do this trade? Because if the A's don't settle then they will only be getting two draft picks (Everybody's scared that Holliday's production was mainly Coors based, as they should be). But if they do this trade, they will have their two picks plus two prospects to show for him.

I'm sure there's some glaring hole in my thinking. I just couldn't find it. Perhaps you can.

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