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Bill James and the 2009 San Francisco Giants, Part II

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And lo, after Bill James begat the hitter projections, a bright light emanated from his abacus, and, yea, he came forth verily with the pitcher projections for 2009. On the third projection day, he rested. Thou who art beho…

…wait a sec…

  • Matt Cain with a winning record?
  • Tim Lincecum with an ERA over 3.00?
  • Barry Zito, a productive, worthwhile, and competent member of the rotation?

Thus saith James, he who holds dominion over a vast statistical kingdom. The whispering grows among the parish: Blasphemer! Blasphemer! Though if this silver-keyboarded devil be correct, the fruits of the starting rotation would be bountiful.

I’m not sure if I buy it, but I’ll hope for it. The front four of the Giants rotation all project to have ERAs under 4.00. And that’s even before the Giants sign CC Sabathia!!!!!fourthsongonandjusticeforall!! The bullpen…less good news, though the projections doesn’t include mustachioed master of movement, Sergio Romo, and most of the worst offenders have already been excised from the roster.

One of the oddest things, though, is that the walk rates of the pitchers prone to walking people don’t change much, yet Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, and Barry Zito are projected to allow far fewer runs. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum stagnate (with Lincecum showing a little regression) which wouldn’t be the worst news in the world.

Comment starter: Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?