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Community Projection: Russ Ortiz

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I tried to get the established players out of the way first, so the projections wouldn't be tainted with inflated/deflated spring stats. For some players, though, it just made sense to wait. If Russ Ortiz gave up thirteen runs in four spring innings, making a projection would have been useless. More so than the usual projections are, even. Ortiz has been the best Giants starter this spring, though, and that's a statement laden with all sorts of connotations -- both good and awful.

Things we know about Russ:

  1. His fastball isn't the 95-MPH-model he featured in San Jose, nor is it the 92-MPH-model he featured during his first tour of duty with the Giants. It's 89/90 MPH, which is still a heck of a lot better than the sub-87 meatballs he was tossing in Arizona, Kansas City, and Baltimore.
  2. He's obviously dedicated. If I were in the same situation, I probably would have sat at home, rolled around in a pile of cash, and only stopped to crank call the Diamondbacks front office. His slim frame is a testament to some serious commitment.
  3. He'll never have good control. Never. But he had a long stretch of success without even average control, so that isn't a point against him by itself.
Still don't trust him, though.

Russ Ortiz

ERA: 5.19
IP: 156
K: 79
BB: 64
HR allowed: 16

Bonus points for catching the irony in the projection, which is almost exactly the projection I would have gone with in the first place.

Negative bonus points for commenting on the misuse of "irony." Go back to Oberlin, nerd.