My abbreviated offseason plan:
- Keep Cain and Lincecum.
- Trade Lowry and Sanchez for maximum value.
What if Misch cuts his thumb on a tube of Pringles? What if Barry Zito twirls too fast at a String Cheese concert, dislocating his shoulder? What if some billionaire super-villain creates a robotic exoskeleton and takes Congress hostage? The Giants surely would have to be without Cain or Lincecum while they save our democracy.
At first glance, a stray "Bartolo Colon to the Giants"-rumor might not make sense, but if the plan is to trade two potential starters, it wouldn't hurt to sign an end-of-the-rotation guy and keep either Misch or Correia in the bullpen. Colon is one possibility, though Matt Clement would be another. Heck, Kerry Wood would even be a consideration if he would consider starting again. I wish I had the HTML-fu to do a decision tree graphic, but here's my best attempt at cost/benefit analysis:
Hypothetical headline: Bartolo Colon or Matt Clement signs for two years, $6M, with incentives that could push him up to $15M
If he is hurt or ineffective:
That's a shame. The Giants could have spent that money on Sean Casey.
If he pitches well, and the Giants have the non-contending powerhouse most of us are expecting:
Helllloooooo, trade deadline magic. No one wants a multi-year risk in August, so a player of repute on the comeback trail would be valuable.
If he pitches well, and the Giants contend:
Uh, sure. If the Giants speed 'n' defense their way to contention, a healthy Colon or Clement would be a nice 4th starter down the stretch.
I'd put the odds at 75% for hurt or ineffective, 20% for deadline-flipping magic, and 5% for improbable contention. For that 25% chance of organizational help, I'd dish out $6M. Any more, and it's harder to be so dismissive of the cost. Even if there aren't any free agents of note this year, a wasted contract to Colon or Clement would still impact the budget at some point.
Texas outbid the rest of baseball to spend on a reclamation project, didn't contend, and were rewarded with a pretty nice package from Boston. I think I made this exact argument for Gagne last year, actually. Maybe next time I'll just post a link to the rumor and title the post "The Gagne Paradigm." Of course, then you'd think the post was going to be about classically stupid goatees.
Comment starter: Assuming the Giants trade Sanchez and Lowry, how much would you spend on a reclamation project?