clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2006 Hitter Projections

New, 38 comments

Good gravy, it takes up a lot of space just to write about how lousy I am at predicting player performance. Clicking "Read More" will transport you into a dreamworld of magic: a dreamworld of wrong and embarrassing hitter projections from 2006.


Moises Alou

Predicted:

AB: 418
HR: 18
AVG: .322
OBP: .368
SLG: .489

Actual

AB: 345
HR: 22
AVG: .301
OBP: .352
SLG: .571

Huh. That's weird. There's still a shrapnel shard of optimism lodged in my abdomen when it comes to the '07 Giants, even though the second-most productive hitter on the team is gone. Huh. I think I'm just ignoring that Moises Alou ever existed. Ignoring that who ever existed? Exactly. (Taps side of nose)

Barry Bonds

Predicted:

Games: 72
AB: 201
AVG: .280
OBP: .460
SLG: .640
HR: 27

Actual:

Games: 130
AB: 367
AVG: .270
OBP: .454
SLG: .545
HR: 26

One of my greatest predictions, as this was proven to be mathematically impossible in the comments section of the post. I'm a genius. The dip in his slugging percentage and relative health were the biggest surprises.

Ray Durham

Predicted:

AB: 480
HR: 13
AVG: .278
OBP: .370
SLG: .445

Actual:

AB: 498
HR: 26
AVG: .293
OBP: .360
SLG: .538

That he failed to meet my OBP prediction was disgusting. Clean it up, Ray.

Man, that was a good season.

Pedro Feliz

Predicted:

AB: 580
HR: 24
AVG: .254
OBP: .303
SLG: .442

Actual:

AB: 603
HR: 22
AVG: .244
OBP: .281
SLG: .428

If he hits the original projection from 2006 this year, I'll be happy.

Steve Finley

Predicted:

AB: 420
AVG: .254
OBP: .310
SLG: .429
HR: 12

Actual:

AB: 426
AVG: .246
OBP: .320
SLG: .394
HR: 6

If Finley had more power, he would have been better. And as my grandpappy used to say, "And if Goat Girl didn't have horns, I'd spend the night with her." He would have been much better in limited action. I kind of wish Don Nelson managed the Giants.

Mike Matheny

Predicted:

AB: 401
HR: 7
AVG: .243
OBP: .289
SLG: .368

Actual:

AB: 160
HR: 3
AVG: .231
OBP: .276
SLG: .338

Sigh. It would really depress me if he has permanent lingering effects from the concussion. Get better soon, Mike.

Lance Niekro

Predicted:

AB: 430
HR: 21
AVG: .279
OBP: .301
SLG: .488

Actual:

AB: 199
HR: 5
AVG: .246
OBP: .286
SLG: .387

Sweet petunia, what was I smoking? Some sort of knuckle-opium of optimism, apparently. Lance Niekro will never hit better than .270 in the majors. He'll crack 20 homers if he gets 700 at-bats. He is a splendid first baseman to have in AAA, though. For the AAA team, that is. I still love his defense.

Mark Sweeney

Predicted:

AB: 199
AVG: .255
OBP: .360
SLG: .425
HR: 8

Actual:

AB: 259
AVG: .251
OBP: .330
SLG: .382
HR: 5

I did a projection for Sweeney? Man, last year must have been slow too. Sweeney was mildly disappointing, and then went on to frame our greatest player out of spite. Here's to a better year off the bench.

Jose Vizcaino

Predicted:

AB: 180
HR: 0
AVG: .255
OBP: .280
SLG: .350

Actual:

AB: 142
HR: 2 (!)
AVG: .232
OBP: .314
SLG: .317

That's a bad hitter. Let us all learn from his presence, dismissal, and eventual championship ring.

Omar Vizquel

Predicted:

AB: 490
AVG: .255
OBP: .330
SLG: .360
HR: 4

Actual:

AB: 579
AVG: .295
OBP: .361
SLG: .389
HR: 4

HA! I nailed the HR total! Suck it, PECOTA! I don't remember being so bearish on Vizquel. I'm glad he proved me wrong.

Randy Winn

Predicted:

AB: 625
AVG: .286
OBP: .366
SLG: .440
HR: 15

Actual:

AB: 573
AVG: .262
OBP: .324
SLG: .396
HR: 11

Most disappointing season of 2006. Now I'm just hoping for a repeat of his .290/.340/.425 Seattle years.

Scour those old threads and make fun of yourself. C'mon now. Be brave.