Bullies

By Grant Brisbee@GrantBrisbee Jan 18, 2007, 9:01am PST

There was a jar of jelly beans at the state fair that said `guess how many and you win the jar'- I was like `c'mon man; lemme just have some. You can guess how many I want. If you guessed `a handful', you are correct." - Mitch Hedberg

So, like, forecasting relievers is like guessing how many jellybeans are in the jar. You have reasons for your guess - heck, they sound like good and logical explanations - but you're usually about 200 jellybeans off. Maybe 300. Sometimes 1,000. If you had seven guesses, maybe you'd come within spitting distance of the real answer.

And wanting the relievers to be good is like only wanting a handful of jellybeans.

And Armando Benitez is one of those wretched Jelly Belly flavors. Buttered popcorn, I'm looking at you.

The predictions for last year's bullpen:

Tyler Walker:

Predicted

ERA: 3.86
IP: 56
K: 68
BB: 24

Actual
ERA: 7.11
IP: 25.3
K: 19
BB: 12

Ick.

Tim Worrell:

Predicted

ERA: 5.48
IP: 33
K: 20
B: 11

Actual

ERA: 7.52
IP: 20.3
K: 12
BB: 7

Even when I picked someone to immolate, they out-immolated my best guess.

Jack Taschner

Predicted

IP: 45
ERA: 3.78
K: 40
BB: 21

Actual

IP: 19.3
ERA: 8.38
K: 15
BB: 7
COLLARS: 17

If he did throw 3.78 ball, he would have had 130 innings out of the bullpen. So he's probably a little lucky.

Scott Munter

Predicted

IP: 24
ERA: 4.60
K: 8
BB: 10

Actual

IP: 22.7
ERA: 8.74
K: 7
BB: 18

I'm starting to think that the Giants' bullpen had some problems last year. I haven't seen this many sevens and eights since ___. (Left blank for the readers to fill in, not because I couldn't think of something. I could, and they were all funny.)

Steve Kline

Predicted

G: 78
IP: 58
ERA: 3.45
K: 39
BB: 28

Actual

G: 72
IP: 51.7
ERA: 3.66
K: 33
BB: 26

No bonus points will ever be awarded for getting a Steve Kline projection right. He'll have this same season for the next twenty years.

Armando Benitez

Predicted

IP: 72
ERA: 2.59
K: 75
BB: 31
S: 39

Actual

IP: 38.3
ERA: 3.52
K: 31
BB: 21
S: 17

On the surface, the prediction doesn't look too far off, but we actually watched the games last year. We know the horror, the horror.