I wanted to come correct with a fly column, but ran out of time. I'll be at a work function all day, so there's no more time to be found. It's probably for the best, as I'm only at peak form when the Giants aren't doing well. A sweep on the road, absolutely deconstructing the other team? Pedro Feliz hitting the husk off the ball? What the hell am I supposed to do with that material?
Instead, a simple grouping and a comment starter:
Playing above their PECOTA projections:
Steve Finley
Omar Vizquel
Pedro Feliz
Brad Hennessey
Playing below their PECOTA projections:
Barry Bonds
Ray Durham
Lance Niekro
Mark Sweeney
Matt Cain
Matt Morris
Perfectly warmed PECOTA porridge:
Randy Winn
Mike Matheny
Jason Schmidt
Jamey Wright
Incomplete:
Noah Lowry
Moises Alou
Bullpen and bench
PECOTA isn't perfect, but it's the best forecasting model out there by a fair margin. If you have statophobia, sub the word "reasonable" for PECOTA. Vizquel is on his way down, while Durham is on his way up. We all expected Feliz up there about a month ago, and were just wondering what was taking him so long. Bonds' PECOTA forecast (.312/.464/.658) came to be without the help of an abacus and a Commodore 64, as there was no historical precedent for the combination of Bonds' Gatticaed super body, injury history, and aging talent. The forecast was just the average of guesses given by Baseball Prospectus staffers.
The comment starter: From the overperforming and underperforming categories, take a guess as to the most likely to switch categories by the All-Star break. Give me a shot of Hennessey, with a side of Durham. I'd love to write Bonds' name in, but .312/.464/.658 seems like a fantasy right now, even though he's almost there already with the OBP/SLG. Scary.