Community Projections: Jason Schmidt

The scenarios of Jason Schmidt's season and impending free agency, as I see them:

1. Pitches great, and signs with another team for silly money.
   
2. Pitches great, and signs with the Giants for silly money.
   
3. Pitches inconsistently, and signs with another team for just less than silly money.
   
4. Pitches inconsistently, and signs with the Giants for just less than silly money.
   
5. Pitches poorly, and signs an expensive contract based on reputation only.
   
6. Pitches poorly, and signs an expensive contract with the Giants based on reputation and nostalgia.
   
7. Pitches great, the Giants sign him to a 3/$15M contract, all woodland animals dance a mirthful dance, and nation-states line up to dispose of all existing nuclear weapons.

I just can't see Schmidt being any kind of bargain for anyone, unless he:

8. Blows out his arm, and has to Wade Miller his way back to a big contract.
   
9. Pitches so poorly, there isn't a team that would go for more than a year-long gamble. See: Hideo Nomo.

I see #3 happening, but am following #4 around the store to make sure it doesn't lift anything. A best-case scenario, other than the unrealistic #7, might be #1. Regardless of how Schmidt performs this year, he'll never inspire a whole lot of confidence for a long-term contract. It's well established that the Giants will only go as far as Bonds takes them, but the success of Schmidt is almost as important.

Jason Schmidt

ERA: 4.30
IP: 180
K: 174
BB: 80