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IF: Ted Lilly is worth a four-year contract close to $10M per...

THEN: Noah Lowry, signed for the next four seasons for a total of $14M, is one of the biggest bargains in the game.

You can't front on that logic. I went over a lot of this here, but that was before Lowry's name was actually coming up in rumors. Lowry for Sexson? Not a fair deal. Lowry did have a down year last year, but he's pitched more 200-inning seasons than Lilly over his career. Sexson is good, but owed far more than he's worth. Lowry for Ramirez, with the Giants neglecting to sign Bonds? That'd be a legendary blunder, as Lowry + Bonds = more financial flexibility for 2008 and a better team for 2007.

I'm not saying that Lowry is destined for greatness, but that he's destined for competence. He's already established he can be a middle of the rotation starter, and should only be dealt for pre-arbitration players or for young players whose arbitration years have also been bought out. Mike Jacobs, maybe. Wily Mo Pena and friends, perhaps.

But you just know -- feel it in the pit of your soul -- that one of these is going to come about:

Lowry for Jacque Jones
Lowry for Garrett Anderson
Lowry for Richie Sexson
Lowry for Melvin Mora
Lowry for Geoff Jenkins and Derrick Turnbow
Lowry for Pat Burrell
And it will be followed by one of these:
Jeff Suppan for 4/$40M
Mark Mulder for 2/$15M (with incentives)
Jason Marquis for 3/$27M
It's going to be something like that, and I'm leaning toward the Jenkins/Turnbow dealie with a side of Marquis. Mmmmmm, that'll be some good fury. I can't wait.