What would Noah Lowry bring back in trade?
The contract particulars:
Signed through '09. Owed $1.115M in '07, $2.25M in '08, $4.5M in '09 with a club option of $6.25M in '10.
'04 - age 23 - ERA+ 116 - ERA 3.82 - K/9 7.04
'05 - age 24 - ERA+ 110 - ERA 3.78 - K/9 7.56
'06 - age 25 - ERA+ 95 - ERA 4.74 - K/9 4.74
Fun fact: One of his Baseball Reference comparables is Les Cain. I think we already knew that....
Reason for the hypothetical gymnastics: If the Giants are absolutely committed to bringing in a Famous Player for Big Money, they could conceivably sign Barry Zito for way too much and trade Lowry to fill lineup holes. If the organization was willing to shell out $110M for Carlos Lee, it wouldn't be a completely crazy scenario. It wouldn't be a smart or likely move, but the offseason is all about pulling filthy hypotheticals from unspeakable places.
There are two ways to look at Lowry: a. Promising young pitcher locked up for three to four years, or b. Oft-injured soft-tosser who might not get back the strikeouts he lost last season. Mark me down as an "a."-man, but what if Lowry could bring back a package like Adam Eaton did last year (Adrian Gonzalez and part of Chris Young)? Assuming the Giants re-signed Bonds, it isn't inconceivable Lowry could bring 1/4th of a starting lineup back from another organization. If Woody Williams is worth 2/12, Lowry has to be one of the better bargains in baseball. Even in his down year, Lowry was still a league-average starter.
I don't want to trade him -- he's one of my favorite players to watch when the change and curve are working -- and I realize as homers we'll completely overvalue him. Still, it's worth wondering about. So who would want him, and what could we get?