Reason for the late posting: Tables

Ah, year-end fluff. You're probably seeing a good dose of this kind of writing:

The wishy-washiness isn't standard, but it helps. There has to be just the right balance of outlandish prediction and safe prediction to make a proper list. I just don't feel comfortable making predictions about the Giants, mostly because I'm caught in a multi-part bind:

1. I don't want to predict good things for the Giants, because I'm a superstitious ninny.
2. I don't want to predict bad things for the Giants, because I'm a superstitious ninny.

So it goes. Also, it should be noted I have the predictive powers of a Speak and Spell dropped in a puddle. Witness the audit for some of my Giants hitting predictions:

Moises Alou

Predicted	Actual
AB: 504	AB: 427
HR: 27	HR: 19
AVG: .276	AVG: .321
OBP: .348	OBP: .400
SLG: .475	SLG: .518

I didn't give him enough credit, but my prediction was much better than a lot of the others I read. Alou's hitting stroke is so bizarre ? so much of his power comes from the wrists and upper body ? I'm hoping he doesn't age like other hitters. There's absolutely no reason to think that, mind you. Just wishcasting out loud.

Edgardo Alfonzo

Predicted	Actual
AB: 453	AB: 368
HR: 14	HR: 2
AVG: .295	AVG: .277
OBP: .368	OBP: .327
SLG: .450	SLG: .345

I cribbed that prediction from the Weekly World News baseball preview. I was busy, and just didn't have time to make a prediction of my own. I confess to the plagarism, and I'm not proud of it. I thought it was a Baseball Prospectus, I swear. It was right after an article predicting the 2005 success of a Detroit Tigers player who was actually half-tiger, so I should have known. Man -Tiger had a better chance of happening.

Omar Vizquel

Predicted	Actual
AB: 590	AB: 568
HR: 5	HR: 3
AVG: .270	AVG: .271
OBP: .342	OBP: .341
SLG: .376	SLG: .350

That makes up for the Alfonzo debacle. Almost. If I were pushing a book, that prediction would go on the back cover.

Ray Durham

Predicted	Actual
AB: 530	AB: 497
HR: 15	HR: 12
AVG: .285	AVG: .290
OBP: .367	OBP: .356
SLG: .445	SLG: .429

I'm sensing a trend. I predicted more playing time and more pop for all of these guys. Only on Alfonzo was I way off on, until....

J.T. Snow

Predicted	Actual
AB: 459	AB: 367
HR: 12	HR: 4
AVG: .268	AVG: .275
OBP: .359	OBP: .343
SLG: .412	SLG: .365

Again, I went with too many at-bats. The AVG/OBP was close enough, but the late-2004 surge from J.T. made me think he'd have at least below-average power. Instead, he only hit like Edgardo Alfonzo on steroids.

Mike Matheny

Predicted	Actual
AB: 426	AB: 443
HR: 7	HR: 13
AVG: .257	AVG: .242
OBP: .315	OBP: .295
SLG: .379	SLG: .406

I predicted a career year for Matheny for no other reason than to amuse myself, and the guy actually had one. The career yeariness was more power-based than I thought, but I wasn't too far off. Just try not to think about the idea those are career-best numbers, and we'll all make it out okay.

And suddenly, I stopped making predictions. There's no way to tell if I forgot or got lazy. I'd like to think my Barry Bonds prediction was so incredibly accurate I had to stop, wipe a tear from my eye, and decide whether I should tell the common folk who read my site. Eventually I said, no, let's let them believe in something. It should be known the predictions I made but didn't publish were remarkable in their accuracy. Like:

Matt Cain

Predicted	Actual
IP: 46.3	IP: 46.3
W/L: 2-1	W/L: 2-1
ERA: 2.33	ERA: 2.33
Range factor: 0.58	Range factor: 0.58

I probably should have published that one, and the others which were just as accurate. I'll do a better job finishing the team this year.