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Reason for the late posting: Tables

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Ah, year-end fluff. You're probably seeing a good dose of this kind of writing:

Five top ten predictions for 2006 or a list of favorite albums -

1. The Giants will not make the playoffs in 2006.

Unless they do, the Giants will not make the playoffs in 2006.

2. Moises Alou will lead the Giants in homers in 2006.

Unless he doesn't, Alou will lead the Giants in 2006.

3. Bloc Party - Silent Alarm

Unless it isn't, my favorite album of the year is from Bloc Party.

The wishy-washiness isn't standard, but it helps. There has to be just the right balance of outlandish prediction and safe prediction to make a proper list. I just don't feel comfortable making predictions about the Giants, mostly because I'm caught in a multi-part bind:
  1. I don't want to predict good things for the Giants, because I'm a superstitious ninny.
  2. I don't want to predict bad things for the Giants, because I'm a superstitious ninny.
So it goes. Also, it should be noted I have the predictive powers of a Speak and Spell dropped in a puddle. Witness the audit for some of my Giants hitting predictions:

Moises Alou

Predicted Actual
AB: 504 AB: 427
HR: 27 HR: 19
AVG: .276 AVG: .321
OBP: .348 OBP: .400
SLG: .475 SLG: .518

I didn't give him enough credit, but my prediction was much better than a lot of the others I read. Alou's hitting stroke is so bizarre ? so much of his power comes from the wrists and upper body ? I'm hoping he doesn't age like other hitters. There's absolutely no reason to think that, mind you. Just wishcasting out loud.

Edgardo Alfonzo

Predicted Actual
AB: 453 AB: 368
HR: 14 HR: 2
AVG: .295 AVG: .277
OBP: .368 OBP: .327
SLG: .450 SLG: .345

I cribbed that prediction from the Weekly World News baseball preview. I was busy, and just didn't have time to make a prediction of my own. I confess to the plagarism, and I'm not proud of it. I thought it was a Baseball Prospectus, I swear. It was right after an article predicting the 2005 success of a Detroit Tigers player who was actually half-tiger, so I should have known. Man -Tiger had a better chance of happening.

Omar Vizquel

Predicted Actual
AB: 590 AB: 568
HR: 5 HR: 3
AVG: .270 AVG: .271
OBP: .342 OBP: .341
SLG: .376 SLG: .350

That makes up for the Alfonzo debacle. Almost. If I were pushing a book, that prediction would go on the back cover.

Ray Durham

Predicted Actual
AB: 530 AB: 497
HR: 15 HR: 12
AVG: .285 AVG: .290
OBP: .367 OBP: .356
SLG: .445 SLG: .429

I'm sensing a trend. I predicted more playing time and more pop for all of these guys. Only on Alfonzo was I way off on, until....

J.T. Snow

Predicted Actual
AB: 459 AB: 367
HR: 12 HR: 4
AVG: .268 AVG: .275
OBP: .359 OBP: .343
SLG: .412 SLG: .365

Again, I went with too many at-bats. The AVG/OBP was close enough, but the late-2004 surge from J.T. made me think he'd have at least below-average power. Instead, he only hit like Edgardo Alfonzo on steroids.

Mike Matheny

Predicted Actual
AB: 426 AB: 443
HR: 7 HR: 13
AVG: .257 AVG: .242
OBP: .315 OBP: .295
SLG: .379 SLG: .406

I predicted a career year for Matheny for no other reason than to amuse myself, and the guy actually had one. The career yeariness was more power-based than I thought, but I wasn't too far off. Just try not to think about the idea those are career-best numbers, and we'll all make it out okay.

And suddenly, I stopped making predictions. There's no way to tell if I forgot or got lazy. I'd like to think my Barry Bonds prediction was so incredibly accurate I had to stop, wipe a tear from my eye, and decide whether I should tell the common folk who read my site. Eventually I said, no, let's let them believe in something. It should be known the predictions I made but didn't publish were remarkable in their accuracy. Like:

Matt Cain

Predicted Actual
IP: 46.3 IP: 46.3
W/L: 2-1 W/L: 2-1
ERA: 2.33 ERA: 2.33
Range factor: 0.58 Range factor: 0.58

I probably should have published that one, and the others which were just as accurate. I'll do a better job finishing the team this year.