Ah, year-end fluff. You're probably seeing a good dose of this kind of writing:
1. The Giants will not make the playoffs in 2006.
Unless they do, the Giants will not make the playoffs in 2006.
2. Moises Alou will lead the Giants in homers in 2006.
Unless he doesn't, Alou will lead the Giants in 2006.
3. Bloc Party - Silent Alarm
Unless it isn't, my favorite album of the year is from Bloc Party.
- I don't want to predict good things for the Giants, because I'm a superstitious ninny.
- I don't want to predict bad things for the Giants, because I'm a superstitious ninny.
|AB: 504||AB: 427|
|HR: 27||HR: 19|
|AVG: .276||AVG: .321|
|OBP: .348||OBP: .400|
|SLG: .475||SLG: .518|
I didn't give him enough credit, but my prediction was much better than a lot of the others I read. Alou's hitting stroke is so bizarre ? so much of his power comes from the wrists and upper body ? I'm hoping he doesn't age like other hitters. There's absolutely no reason to think that, mind you. Just wishcasting out loud.
|AB: 453||AB: 368|
|HR: 14||HR: 2|
|AVG: .295||AVG: .277|
|OBP: .368||OBP: .327|
|SLG: .450||SLG: .345|
I cribbed that prediction from the Weekly World News baseball preview. I was busy, and just didn't have time to make a prediction of my own. I confess to the plagarism, and I'm not proud of it. I thought it was a Baseball Prospectus, I swear. It was right after an article predicting the 2005 success of a Detroit Tigers player who was actually half-tiger, so I should have known. Man -Tiger had a better chance of happening.
|AB: 590||AB: 568|
|HR: 5||HR: 3|
|AVG: .270||AVG: .271|
|OBP: .342||OBP: .341|
|SLG: .376||SLG: .350|
That makes up for the Alfonzo debacle. Almost. If I were pushing a book, that prediction would go on the back cover.
|AB: 530||AB: 497|
|HR: 15||HR: 12|
|AVG: .285||AVG: .290|
|OBP: .367||OBP: .356|
|SLG: .445||SLG: .429|
I'm sensing a trend. I predicted more playing time and more pop for all of these guys. Only on Alfonzo was I way off on, until....
|AB: 459||AB: 367|
|HR: 12||HR: 4|
|AVG: .268||AVG: .275|
|OBP: .359||OBP: .343|
|SLG: .412||SLG: .365|
Again, I went with too many at-bats. The AVG/OBP was close enough, but the late-2004 surge from J.T. made me think he'd have at least below-average power. Instead, he only hit like Edgardo Alfonzo on steroids.
|AB: 426||AB: 443|
|HR: 7||HR: 13|
|AVG: .257||AVG: .242|
|OBP: .315||OBP: .295|
|SLG: .379||SLG: .406|
I predicted a career year for Matheny for no other reason than to amuse myself, and the guy actually had one. The career yeariness was more power-based than I thought, but I wasn't too far off. Just try not to think about the idea those are career-best numbers, and we'll all make it out okay.
And suddenly, I stopped making predictions. There's no way to tell if I forgot or got lazy. I'd like to think my Barry Bonds prediction was so incredibly accurate I had to stop, wipe a tear from my eye, and decide whether I should tell the common folk who read my site. Eventually I said, no, let's let them believe in something. It should be known the predictions I made but didn't publish were remarkable in their accuracy. Like:
|IP: 46.3||IP: 46.3|
|W/L: 2-1||W/L: 2-1|
|ERA: 2.33||ERA: 2.33|
|Range factor: 0.58||Range factor: 0.58|
I probably should have published that one, and the others which were just as accurate. I'll do a better job finishing the team this year.