Dayan Viciedo was supposed to be introduced as the newest member of the White Sox in a press conference on Friday, but apparently visa issues--there's always visa issues--may have derailed the event, though not the signing itself. The terms of the contract are as of yet unknown, but Phil Rogers put us in the $11M ballpark and you guys keep talking about 4-5 years (though I'm unsure where that info originated).

Until Viciedo is officially signed and plays a few spring training games all we'll be able to do is speculate on his ability. Personally, I think the notion that he'll compete for a job as the starting 3B this year is laughable, but I also thought that Alexei Ramirez should have gone to the minors out of camp last spring and thought he would probably end up in AA when the Sox signed him just before Christmas. So what do I know?

What does Viciedo's contract tell us?

There aren't many comparables for Vicideo's contract or the situation which allowed him to become a 19-year old free agent. In the '96 draft, Scott Boras got a number of the draftees (including Sox first-rounder Bobby Seay) declared free agents after they were not tendered a contract offer within two weeks of the draft, which resulted in a number of ridiculous contracts, most notably Matt White's $10+M deal. More recently Boras tried to get Landon Powell declared a free agent when he completed his GED before he started his senior season of HS. But the best comparison has to be Kendry Morales, who like Viciedo defected Cuba and incited a bidding war as a free agent, ultimately settling for the following contract.

Kendry Morales

• 6 years/$4.5M (2005-10)
  • signed by Angels as a free agent from Cuba (via the Dominican Republic) 12/04
  • $3M signing bonus
  • 05:$0.316M, 06:$0.35M, 07:$0.4M, 08:$0.5M, 09:$0.6M, 10:$0.7M
  • minor-league salaries: o5:$0.1M, 06:$0.15M, 07:$0.2M, 08:$0.3M, 09:$0.35M, 10:$0.4M
  • with 3 years of Major League service, may void remaining years of deal and go to arbitration
  • total value may reach $10M with bonuses
• signed as a free agent from Cuba (via the Dominican Republic) 12/04
• agents: David Valdes, John Mano

I recalled the deal being reported as a $10M deal back then, but I now see that it's a well constructed split contract which is fair to both sides. (I hope the Sox are able to set up a similar mutually beneficial contract.) Morales is without question the best comp we have for Viciedo right now. Since being considered on the top prospects in all of baseball, his stock has fallen to that of a AAAA player; a guy who has crushed minor league pitching in favorable hitter's leagues who doesn't seem to possess either the plate discipline or power to merit an everyday spot in a major league lineup.

I'm interested to see the terms of the contract before I make any judgments, but I would think (without actually doing the proper research) that the reported $11M would be the most expensive major or minor league contract handed out to a player of Viciedo's age. It's a huge deal, but as was seen in '96, being a free agent inflates the value of the contracts offered. For some more timely perspective, it was speculated that Pedro Alvarez might receive a deal from $15M to upwards of $20M at free agency during the few days when it was speculated that might be declared a free agent.

When I say it's a huge deal, it's because $11M doesn't really represent any real cost savings over a first-rounder. Take the recently exported Nick Swisher, for example. He was drafted by Oakland in '02 at age 21 and signed for a $1.78M bonus. He spent all of '03 and most of '04 in the minors, drawing a small salary, before making the minor league minimum plus a small raise each of his first three seasons. He signed his current contract during the middle of his third pre-arbitration year, raising his salary to a pro-rated portion of $700K for the remainder of that season. Add in his $3.5M he made in the first full year of the contract, and Swisher has made something in the area of $6.7M in his 6+ years as a professional.

To use the most dynamic young third baseman in the league as an example, Evan Longoria got a $3M signing bonus out of college, spent a full season in the minors and played only 6 games in the majors before signing his current deal. That deal combined with his signing bonus has him making a conveniently comparable $11M in his first 5 years in the majors.

If the $11M figure is to be believed, along with it being a guaranteed major-league deal, the Sox won't really experience any savings from the deal unless Viciedo quickly makes the majors and quickly proves to be worth a huge deal like Longoria.

What does a major league deal mean?

More than anything, Viciedo signing a major league deal will effect his option status. Players on a major league contract are required to be on the 40-man roster, and as such have to optioned to the minor leagues once a year if they don't make the big league club. Thankfully, Viciedo should get the benefit of receiving a 4th option year, so it shouldn't affect the Sox too greatly. With all the hype some have heaped on Viciedo already, if he isn't contributing by the 4th year of his contract (when he'll be just 23 years old, mind you), he'll already have been labeled a Borchard-like bust.

So, is this a good signing?

The truth is, I don't know. The Sox didn't sign Viciedo looking to lock up some talent for a below market value. They signed him (or rather will sign him) to add more talent to their system. Period. The major league contract and the limitations that such a contract brings would seem to indicate their faith in Viciedo's talent, but the contract's overall value means Viciedo has to produce and produce relatively quickly to justify such a price. It's a substantially riskier signing than your average top prospect.

Note to Rogers, Merkin, Gonzo, and Cowley: If the deal is for the rumored less than 6 years, or even if it is, please ask if there is a free-agency-inducing clause at the end of the contract like Contreras and Iguchi had. For those that don't understand why such a question is important: If there's no such out clause, the Sox can take Viciedo to arbitration, if, after his contract has expired, he has not reached 6 years of major league serive.

I never got around to posting a South Side Sox Official Off-Season Plan this year mainly for two reasons. One, I couldn't really see the White Sox being players in the free agent market. And Two, any plan I would have come up with simply would have been a collection of guidelines on what not to do.

It almost goes without saying that trading Nick Swisher would have violated our rule #1, Don't Sell Low on Swisher/Konerko/Vazquez.

I'm appalled by the reasoning used by some to defend the Swisher deal; the idea that Kenny Williams (and his scouts) have come out on top of other deals so we should just assume that they'll eventually end up smelling like roses on this one, the idea that Jeff Marquez is two bullpen sessions and a Don Cooper cutter away from turning into a mid-rotation starter. It requires a dizzying form of circular logic which I (thankfully) lack.

Maybe Marquez gives the Sox years of league average work from the rotation all for a below market price tag. Maybe Wilson Betemit takes over at third base full time. Maybe Jhonny Nunez becomes an integral part of the Sox bullpen. But none of that will change the fact that the Sox turned 3 of their top 5 prospects in '07 into two years of a below average defensive utility man with an OBP below .300 in the AL and two prospects who couldn't crack the Sox current top 10 (according to Baseball America). The Sox return for Swisher, and thus the '07 prospects, was inadequate. Period.

If Williams and company were as smart as some are making him out to be, then they should have been able to pry away the utility player and two mid-to-low level prospects for similar package of scraps, but scraps the super-smart Sox scouting staff was positive wouldn't amount to anything in the future. The Sox get their guys and still have Swisher, who can be held onto, or, with patience, dealt for a more palatable higher-upside return.

Back to the point, though I suspect that ripping on the Swisher deal will become a recurring theme around here, what happens now that the Sox have dispatched The Awesome? Jim asks essentially the same question, though he wants to know what happens to The Swagger.

* * * * *

With the acquisition of Betemit, the White Sox entire infield appears set. Konerko will hold down first, obviously, and Ramirez has been handed the shortstop job. That leaves four players (Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, Betemit, and Josh Fields) to compete for (probably) 3 spots; though Betemit is assured of a job, his role is undetermined. As I see it right now, Betemit will be the primary back-up at every infield position, with the opportunity to beat out Josh Fields and play everyday at 3B. Getz has the inside track to the 2B job, where the loser figures to be sent to the minors.

The Betemit acquisition has all but ended Juan Uribe's career on the south side, and although a similar move has yet to be made at back-up catcher with each passing day it appears more likely to be Cole Armstrong's job. Initially, I didn't think the Sox buyout of Toby Hall meant anything more than they didn't want to pay him $2+M for his pieing capabilities, but after the Swisher trade I think the Sox might be looking to purge a large part of their non-Pierzynski goofball demographic. Armstrong appears to be a late bloomer, and impressed in the Arizona Fall League, hitting 7 homers and nearly matching his '08 regular season total.

But Armstrong is a left-handed hitter who posted a .290 OBP against LHP in the minors and has not displayed any patience at the plate. He hardly seems like a compliment to Pierzynski's skill set. But unless the Sox can get Henry Blanco to sign a 1-year deal on the cheap, the job appears to be Armstrong's.

Swisher's departure is felt most in the outfield, where the Sox hope to deploy a true center fielder next year. Right now, that would probably mean Jerry Owens (whose groin was the Sox '08 MVP). Thankfully we've got a few months before spring training opens. Carlos Quentin isn't going anywhere, and the Swisher trade makes a Jermaine Dye deal seem much more unlikely. Unless the Sox make an unexpected splash at free agency, or ship out a valuable arm for an outfielder, any deal that included Dye would have to bring an outfielder in return, and thus wouldn't make much sense for either party.

In the rotation, Javier Vazquez seems like the only player with a chance to change uniforms. Plenty of teams might be interested, but a market won't develop until after CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and Jake Peavy have all found new homes. Bobby Jenks may represent Williams most valuable trade chit, but the Mets have backed off interest citing his declining strikeout rate; and like the Vazquez situation, most teams will want to wait until the top free agent options (Fuentes and K-Rod) have been exhausted).

All of which is a way of me saying, I'm bored and had to write something, why not a little stream-of-consciousness on the Sox situation?

And... Where the heck is the Dayan Viciedo News?

He was supposed to be signed last weekend, for sure by Monday. But here it is Thursday, and I haven't seen anything about his workouts--not a single leak hit a major newspaper--or any real updates on the teams interested in pursuing him. The most recent thing I can find is a blurb from the East Valley Tribune (AZ) which states "some believe he will get a contract similar to the four-year, $4.75 million deal [Alexei] Ramirez signed last year." But even that seems more like a guess than an informed opinion.

The answer is $5M, apparently.

Mark Gonzales is reporting that a deal could be announced by as soon as Tuesday night, which just so happens to match the reports from our embedded SSSer Hoytsstach.

Was having a beer at a bar here in Phoenix. A guy came up to me, saw my Sox hat, said he’s been workin on the move from Tuscon, should be announced tomorrow night. By the way, he bought me a beer cuz of the hat, as if you wanted to know.

Beer tastes good.

We're going to call this one. The always reliable Phoenix area bar exit polls indicate that the White Sox are moving to Glendale.