The Official Scorer of the Reds passed away last night.  He'd been on the job for 29 years, and even though he's not someone most people are familiar with, I was a little saddened at the news.  I met Sample back in high school and only got to talk to him for a couple of minutes but he was a very gracious man.  Strangely that short meeting with him always left me kind of rooting for him.  Thinking on it now, all I can think is, that's weird.

Sample was also the head baseball coach at the University of Cincinnati for 21 years.  He still holds the record for most wins, with an overall record of 391-333-7.

----------------------------

In unrelated news, but something that might add a little more meat to this FanPost(tm), I invite you to read the story of Squeaky Parker.  It's nice to hear the Reds taking care of one of their own even when they aren't obligated to.

I hadn't looked at the Reds 40-man roster in a while, so I decided to check it out.  Did you know there are only 32 players currently on the 40-man roster?  (Reds.com lists 33, but I don't believe Andy Phillips belongs on there)  There's a lot of space to fill. 

Some of that will be with players that need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  Based on this list from Shawn back in October, I'd guess that Carlos Fisher will definitely be protected, and possibly Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, and Sam Lecure.  I don't believe they'll protect more than two players though because they have too many holes on the big league roster to fill.

I think all of these guys from the 40-man are pretty much locks to make the team in Spring:

That leaves 8 open roster spots: SP, 3 RP, 2 OF, C, IF

The last starting pitcher spot will likely be filled from the 40-man roster, specifically from Owings, Bailey, or Thompson.  We may see bullpen help from Herrera, Masset, Fisher, one of the losers from the SP chase or, gulp, Majewski or Belisle.  I would guess though that Majewski and Belisle will not be offered arbitration and therefore will be released, freeing up 2 more spots on the 40-man roster. 

On the offensive side, there isn't a lot of help coming from the 40-man.  Adam Rosales, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar all look like backups, and Hopper is the only remaining OF on the the 40-man roster.  I would say that Drew Stubbs and Danny Dorn are the only other outfielders in the organization that would have a shot at making the roster out of the spring, but both are unlikely.

So the Reds have a lot of work that needs to be done, but at least they have a lot of space to work in.  By my estimate, they are currently only on the hook for around $49.5 million in signed contracts, with EdE being the only likely arbitration case they'll face.  Throw in another $4-6 million to cover the pre-arb players, and it really looks to me like the Reds have some money to spend - at least $25-30 million, I would think. 

What do you think, can they build a winner with the money they have left to spend?

I'm fighting my first cold of the season and it's moved into my sinuses, so all you get are links once again.  Special thanks to Scrabbles and Kyle for posting something worth talking about the last couple of days.  I hope to be back to a healthier level tomorrow.

• Baseball Prospectus has the Hot Stove Preview up for the Reds.  It's behind the subscription wall, so I can only give you a blurb:

  So here's the suggestion that they sneak up on people by giving Milton Bradley a multi-year offer to play left field in a park he'll continue to thrive in. Skip the cautions over dealing in-division, and try to get Alcides Escobar and whatever else from the Brewers for Arroyo, resolving their shortstop problem and adding a hitter who, while he won't get on base a lot, will deliver more power than you expect because of his ability to make contact in a homer-happy park.

  Bradley's not a bad idea, but he might be too expensive and risky for a team that isn't quite ready to compete. I have to think the Brewers would be more likely to trade Hardy than Escobar, especially if they are taking on salary. I wouldn't mind having either one.
• Crosley Field Terrace likes the new Mariners GM's plan to set up a statistical analysis department.  I think he also is personally asking me to hassle Jocketty at Redsfest next month.  Sounds like a plan.
• Doug's been doing some thinking about Justin Turner.  He's an interesting, under-the-radar prospect in my opinion.  I think he'll be a good player some day, but probably not for the Reds.
• The Orioles are interested in adding Wayne Krivsky to their front office.  Is it too late to trade him for Brian Roberts?
• Can you name the last 10 NL MVPs in 3 minutes?  How about the last 10 AL MVPs?  I got all of the NL and missed 2 from the AL.
• The AFL has named 6 finalists for the Dernell Stenson Award.  None of them are Reds prospects, but I think it's good to think about Stenson every once in a while to remind ourselves how quickly it could all end.
• Brew Crew Ball thinks that the Brewers could get CC Sabathia if they just add a 6th year to the deal, even if they don't match the Yankees money.  As little as I want to see CC face the Reds 5 times a year, I'm kind of rooting for Sabathia to pick the Brewers over the Yanks.  And once he does, I'll start rooting for him to get hurt. :)
• Does anybody know if the MLB Network is going to be carried by Time Warner in Cincinnati?  If it is, I may very well get fired for lack of output in my job.

Things to ponder while you ponder things:

Matt York/AP

• We all know that Edinson Volquez needs to work on his control a bit.  He had the 7th highest walks per 9 IP among qualified pitchers last season.  More importantly though, he may want to improve on throwing first pitch strikes.  He had the second lowest rate for first pitch strikes in baseball last season, behind only Barry Zito (for qualified starters) at 52.6%.  How big of a difference can strike one make?  Batters hit .268/.408/.414 against Volquez last year after a 1-0 count.  When the count starts out 0-1, they hit just .195/.253/.297.
• John Erardi had a fine article this weekend about the Latin pipeline for the Big Red Machine.  As Erardi points out, it's relevant to look at that link since the Reds are starting to make significant moves in Latin America once again.  This may be the most important development for the future of the franchise that we've seen.  Sure would be nice if Johnny Almaraz was still involved though.
• I've been pushing defensive improvement a lot this off-season, mainly because I think it's a cheap way for the Reds to improve.  When it comes to evaluating defense, there isn't one perfect system.  Each has it's flaws and shortcomings, but most of them contribute to our knowledge on the subject.   As much as I can, I try to not leave my evaluation to just one system - though that can be difficult since they are all released at different times during the season.  My point in all this babble is that we've got more data to look at as Baseball Musings has released his Probablistic Model of Range numbers for 2008.  Long story short, it doesn't look good for the Reds.  Beyond the Boxscore has converted most of the positions to run values and the Reds are second-to-last at -29 runs.  The good news is that there is room for improvement.
• We haven't heard much about the Reds in terms of shoring up the bullpen this off-season, but I came across a couple of names that interested me.  First, Bob Howry had a bad year last year, but I think the reason might because he stopped throwing his fastball in favor of his slider.  Given his down year in 2008, he could be had for a one-year deal or a reasonably cheap two-year deal.  The other pitcher is Will Ohman.  Ohman is definitely a LOOGY, so I wouldn't sign him for more than $2.5 million, but the guy shuts down left-handers (.197/.285/.318).  Given that Bill Bray is the only lefty in the pen right now with any real experience, I think Ohman is definitely worth a shot.
• I've recently added 3 Reds blogs to our blogroll and I figured I should bring attention to them.  It looks like they've all been around for some time, but for some reason I just found them.  RedLegs Baseball has been around since May of 2007, but for some reason I cared not.  He recently put up a cool video of Neftali Soto hitting the ball far.  I think I may have linked to Dunn and Dunner before, but nothing formal.  And lastly, there is OMGReds, who have a super-rad Photo Blog to go along with their site, including pictures from this weekend's Big Red Machine Reunion.  I'm terrible about linking to work from other blogs, so please click the links in the blogroll often to keep up with their work.  And if there is any Reds site out there that I'm missing, drop me a line or put it in the comments and I'll add it.

I may have scraped the bottom of the barrel for Reds new right now.  Today is the day that free agents can start talking with other teams.  As you know, that probably means the end of David Weathers's tenure with the Reds.  Assuming Javier Valentin and Matt Belisle aren't back, that means the only players left from the 2005 squad are Ryan Freel, EdE, and Aaron Harang.  Doesn't that seem like a lot of turnover in just 3 years?  Granted that team was bad, but for a team that doesn't play much on the free agent market, they sure have gone through a lot of players.

The latest word from Walt Jocketty (via Fay) is that "the Reds will look to trades first and free agency second."  Jocketty added:

“I don’t think that’s going to happen right away,” Jocketty said. “It could. You never know until you start talking to people but I don’t expect it.”

So, we may be twiddling our thumbs here for a bit.

Then again, maybe something might happen quickly with Bronson Arroyo.  In case you haven't heard, Jayson Stark mentioned:

We're hearing the Reds are quietly investigating whether there's a market for Bronson Arroyo. One team believed to be mulling Arroyo: Texas.

I wonder if an Arroyo trade would get Saltalamacchia or Teagarden in return.  Of all of the Reds starting pitchers, Arroyo is the one that I'd be most open to trading.  Then again, I'd be perfectly happy with him as the #4 starter next year too.

I think we'll start to see a few more rumors flying around leading up to the Winter Meetings, but I doubt we'll see much major activity.  Where's your head on this?  Are you optimstic that the Reds are going to make the right moves?  Do you think we'll see something soon or do you expect that Walt will wait to strike?

Use this thread to discuss that or anything else going on around the game.  Dump any rumors of interest in here as well.

From Hal:

The Cincinnati Reds are set to announce, probably late this afternoon, the addition of three top-notch front office people.

General manager Walt Jocketty confirmed this morning to The Dayton Daily News that he has hired Cam Bonifay, Mike Squires and Jamie Quirk.

They are additions and there are no substractions.

Bonifay and Squires will become special assistants to the general manager and Quirk will be a pro scout with additional duties as directed by Jocketty.

You may remember Bonifay as the GM of the PIttsburgh Pirates from 1993 to 2001.  There he developed a pleasant reputation for giving big money to not so great players. 

After that he worked for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as their director of player development and scouting until 2005.  While there, the Durham Bulls won 3 straight International League Titles.  They also drafted BJ Upton, Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, and Andy Sonnanstine, as well as a couple of others who did not sign like Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew Miller.  I'm not completely sure what role he played in their drafts, but it looks like it was a mix of good and bad, with only Upton being the clear success so far.

It'll be interesting to see if we hear much from Bonifay or the previously hired Bill Bavasi.  Neither has a very good track record as a GM, but that doesn't mean they won't be useful.  Hopefully Walt won't let them muck things up like they did at their previous jobs.

Some names and notes of players that have been floating throughout the interwebs:

Braden Looper - Rotoworld seems to think the Reds would have an interest in his services.  Not sure if there is any real rumor here.  Sounds like speculation:

Braden Looper (Cardinals) - Looper's 4.94 ERA and dismal strikeout rate in his first year as a starter suggested that he'd have a hard time lasting another season in the rotation in 2008, but he was able to improve for the Cardinals, finishing 12-14 with a 4.16 ERA. That's enough to insert him into the Jason Marquis class of starters and potentially land him another three-year deal as a free agent. The top teams probably won't be after him, but clubs looking for a guy to eat innings could see considerable value in his durability. It'd be for the best if he stays in the NL.

Previous prediction: Nationals - three years, $21 million
New prediction: Reds - three years, $21 million

Jocketty has signed Looper in the past, so it's not out of the realm of possibility, but I see this one as highly suspect, especially at that amount.

Continue reading this post »

David Kohl/AP

The talk yesterday of trading for Garrett Atkins left me with just one question: why?  I'm not questioning why because I think Atkins is a bad player.  That's not the case at all.  He's a good - not great - Major League player.  And while his numbers are inflated by playing in Colorado, it's not as if he would likely come to Cincinnati and turn into a terrible hitter. 

No the reason why I ask why is because he's not really an improvement over Encarnacion at third base.  On paper, they are essentially the same player:

• 20-25 home runs a year
• an OPS+ of 100-110 every year
• bad defense
• better numbers at home than on the road

On that last point, the resemblance between their career road numbers really is quite striking:

Atkins: .260/.328/.424
EdE: .259/.326/.434

You really can't get much closer than that, can you?

The only real difference between the two player's history is that Atkins has 2006 to hang his hat on, a season where he posted a .329/.409/.556 batting line with an OPS+ of 136.  It was a year where Atkins finished 15th in the MVP ballotting.  Encarnacion doesn't have a season anywhere near that year.  But then, besides 2006, neither does Atkins.

Oh, and there is one more difference.  Atkins didn't finally settle into the big leagues until 2005 when he was 25 years old.  Edwin just finished his third full season in the big leagues - a year when he was just 25 years old.  Atkins is moving into that phase into his career where we pretty much know what type of player he is.  EdE is still developing a bit - though by no means do I think he'll become an All Star.  Given the age of the two players, it's more likely that Edwin will be the one to continue to improve over the next couple of seasons.

On top of that, Atkins is in his second year of arbitration after making $4.4 million last season.  With EdE just entering his first arb year this season, I think we can expect that he'll be much cheaper in 2009.  Plus there is the extra advantage of another year of control over him.

Like I said, this is not a case of me thinking that Atkins is a bad player - far from it.  And if he were a left fielder or if he played good defense at 3B (a la Adrian Beltre), I'd be in support of the move.  But if he is any sort of an upgrade over EdE, it's minimal.  If both players stay on the roster, then one of them is going to play a new position while the other continues to play bad defense at 3B.  How is that an upgrade?  If they decide to trade EdE - a move I'm not opposed to if the deal makes sense - doesn't it make more sense to try to replace him with someone who is not an older, more expensive version of himself?

Can anybody give me a good reason why Garrett Atkins would be a real improvement over Encarnacion?

Getty Images

I was thinking this morning about the possibility that the Reds may remain inactive during the off-season.  My next thought was that maybe then they should go with a full-on youth movement and let the players for 2010 - at least those that have played in Double-A or higher - play and get them some experience so that they are rolling when 2010 comes along.  Who would those players be?

Drew Stubbs - he's probably the only real prospect in Triple-A, at least on offense.  Shaun Cumberland put up decent numbers, but I think he looks more like a 4th outfielder than an everyday starter.  A case could be made that Stubbs should start in CF even if the Reds don't go the youth route in 2009.  His defense should solidify the Reds up the middle and I believe that eventually he'll post an OBP in the .350-.360 range.  He probably could use some refinement though.  Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Very good.

Daniel Dorn - he's a left-handed power-hitter who played most the season in Chattanooga last year.  I doubt he'd make the leap over Stubbs, and given that he's left-handed I don't see him starting in front of Dickerson.  Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Slim.

Sean Henry/Chris Heisey - both of these guys are right-handed corner outfielders who need to develop some more power if they are going to play in the Majors.  They both get on base well and Heisey has some decent speed.  Neither player is ready to sniff starting in the Majors.  Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Tiny.

Chris Valaika - Outside of his first 200 PAs in Sarasota, his bat has been good all throughout the minors.  His defense was questionable at shortstop, but Doug has been noticing some chatter indicating that he might be improving enough there to stick.  If his defense is truly improved, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him break camp with the Reds and start at shortstop on Opening Day - especially if Alex Gonzalez continues to be unhealthy.  If the Reds decide to make it look like they are playing for 2009 though, Valaika will probably start the year in Louisville.  Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Good.

Justin Turner - By all accounts, Turner's defense at 2B is very good and his bat has been solid throughout the minors.  With Brandon Phillips holding on to 2B right now, it's doubtful that Turner will see any time in 2009 with the big club, but don't be surprised if he makes the jump if BP goes down with an injury.  Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Doubtful.

What do you think?  Any of these guys going to make the team out of Spring Training?