Often times, the analysis on this, and many sabermetrics inclined sites, rely heavily  on batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to indicate luck in a hitters profile. Peter has done extensive work on BABIP and batted balls, but I wanted to take a different look at the concept. My focus was not on what components weighed heavily in BABIP, but rather what player types, if any, conveyed unnatural BABIPs. Generalizations about styles like three true outcome hitters and speedsters are usually made in the context of a conversation about BABIP, are those stereotypes true, or simply misconceived?

The only overall qualifications were: active post-1980 and 5,000+ plate appearances. Here are the player styles tested:

Three True Outcomes (Top 50 were tested)
Essentially 3TO types are the players who either walk, strikeout, or hit a homerun in a disproportional amount of plate appearances. Think Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Pat Burrell, or even Jay Buhner. These players are bulkier, slower, defenseless, and possess what Bill James labeled "Old player skills", although they're not always old.

Speedsters (Top 50 were tested)
This category is exactly what you're thinking it consists of. These guys don't hit homeruns, but do steal bases, and generally make good usage of their speed in the field. Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, Kenny Lofton, and Trot Nixon are grouped here.

The Non-Three True Outcomes (Top 50 were tested)
Exact opposite of 3TO. Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco, Lance Johnson, and Rey Sanchez don't tend to homer, walk, or strikeout.

Now, on to the results.

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Hinske's first and last hits as a Ray were homeruns. He had a solid run through mid-September where his OPS was over .800. So naturally, Hinske finished just shy of a .800 OPS, which would've marked some nice symmetry with his 800k salary. Alas it was not to be, not after a disastrous second half.  Frankly, this picture says it all:

In the field: ~ -0.7 wins (and positional adjustment of -0.75, so more)

At the plate: ~1 wins

Playing time: 70%

Wins above replacement level: ~1.5

Eh, back to being lukewarm on the idea, but something screams Eric Hinske about him, that deal didn't work out too awfully. I'm obsessing at this point. Rivera's a mini-Vlad type, but he's also what you'd expect from a mature Delmon Young. Dave Cameron said it better than I can here, but I wouldn't pay Rivera more than Gomes, and if that's what it takes I would just keep Gomes, or look elsewhere.

Tommy and I have been talking about RF/DH options a lot lately. Almost to the point to overload. I think I finally reached a conclusion, and I'll keep this brief:

- We lead the league in team O-Swing% last season.

- We were 10th in OBP.

- We were 13th in SLG.

Obviously more OBP would be nice, but I've actually arrived at the realization that I would be willing to punt some of that for a power hitter who hacks. That leads me to Juan Rivera. He's not a good defender, and not my ideal player whatsoever, but he does have some power, and again, we're overlooking his weaknesses for that power -- a lot like Eric Hinske/Cliff Floyd, only rolled into one, and right-handed. 

In fact: if Rivera simply had a career norm slugging percentage of .468 he would've ranked third on the team in SLG last season. In 2008 Rivera didn't hit his usual amount of liners and had an awful BABIP, but if he can regain his .394 wOBA* from 2006, he wouldn't be a bad option.

For a cheap enough deal, he'd be a decent risk worth taking.

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Also, I know it might go for naught, but I really want Jason Giambi at DH. So bad.

Essentially the rules are this:

• If 18 years old or younger on the June 5 preceding the player's original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Draft following  the player's original contract;
• If 19 years old or older on the June 5 preceding the player's original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fourth Rule 5 Draft following the player's original contract;

Morlan was 18 when he signed in mid-June, 2004. Meaning he passed drafts in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and is now eligible for the 2008 Rule 5 draft. The Rays can no longer add non-free agents/traded players to the 40 man, so unless he's traded, he's going to be selectable. The good news is, he's unlikely to stick on a roster for the entire season. The bad news is: he's apparently not what we were hoping for, despite decent numbers last season.

Edit: Unless there's some injury bypass the Rays can press for, since Morlan did miss time with a shoulder injury this year.

There's not.

Others who appear eligible:

Ryan Royster

Chris Nowak

Matt Spring

Wood Fines

Wade Townsend

Chris Mason

Mike Wlodarczyk

The international amateur free agency game is a lot more fun than its domisticated big brother is right now. The White Sox appear close to ponying up 11 million dollars and a 40 man roster spot to 19-year-old Cuban defect Dayan Viciedo. If that comes to be, the Sox will have tapped into the same resource that landed them Alexei Ramirez not even a year ago, and Kenny Williams remains one of the most inconsistent general managers in the league.

Viciedo is a 19-year-old third  baseman (who also played some right field) who defects after playing at the top Cuban level since age 16. Some have proclaimed him, "The Cuban Babe Ruth", and while that might be a stretch, Viciedo is an interesting prospect nonetheless, and while it is a bit hard to project his performance (and whether the price is justifiable), we can at least discuss the move in pure processes form.

Viciedo would be a top 10 selection in the amateur draft, assuming he grades out as well as recent selections like Mike Moustakas and Josh Vitters. His price is almost four times what Vitters received, but keep in mind; this is on the open market. Moreso, it is only one million less than what Jon Garland made in 2008. Moving forward, is there anyone who would take Garland over Viciedo?

With such, I must applaud the White Sox. Especially for paying the price to acquire Viciedo and amateur talent overall, even while they're seemingly going to trade one of their older bats in order to free up some major league payroll. Some teams would've taken the 11 mil, kept their elders intact and signed another free agent or two and focused only on the now. Thankfully, we aren't talking about Ed Wade or Houston, but instead a sometimes sly, sometimes straight up questionable Kenny Williams.

Whether Viciedo is the next Adrian Beltre or not is irrelevant. Sure, it makes Williams look better if he is, but either way the move is a smart one. Spending money on good amateur talent is a lot smarter than spending money on mediocre veterans.

However, if you do vote, please explain why you chose that option. It's not a trick question either.

Per the Heater; Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Dale Thayer.

I've changed my stance on Thayer since StatCorner's minors section launched and alerted me that Thayer got quite a good chunk of swinging strikes (11.5%). The "book" on him was that his stuff was marginal. My apologies to all those who were Thayer backers since the beginning who I, foolishly, took a scouting view on.

McGee will miss part of (if not most) of 2009 recovering from UCL/Tommy John surgery. Upon his return some indications have been that he'll slide into a relief role down the road, but for now who knows. Davis could be the man to knock Andrew Sonnanstine out of the rotation. Timetable unknown.