Some things to read while making yourself look more intellectual.

Today's Mug is a little short on time, so my apologies if it seems rushed.

Let's open with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• The Dodgers are reportedly getting ready to make an offer.
• The Giants may be getting ready to do so as well.
• The Yankees may be putting a deadline on their offer to Sabathia.
• The White Sox may be considering getting involved.

Chone Smith is the latest to attempt to attach a dollar value to free agent pitchers. He has Sabathia as the mot valuable pitcher, at $27.7 million for 2009 and $81.8 over the next three years. Ben Sheets is the fourth most valuable, at $15.7 million for 2009 and $45.9 for three seasons.

If the Brewers lose Sheets, they may get better defensively. Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranked Brewer pitchers dead last defensively in 2008, and Ben Sheets was the worst pitcher, scoring 57.52, where 100 is average. Dave Bush was also near the bottom.

As noted in the FanShots, the Brewers added four minor league pitchers to their 40-man roster (Mark Rogers, Omar Aguilar, Cody Scarpetta and Alexandre Periard) to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Of the four, only Aguilar strikes me as someone another team would consider keeping on their roster all season. Meanwhile, Paul DePodesta explains why adding a player to your 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft makes it easier to lose them later.

Four Brewer prospects (although one is a former Brewer now) made the TOPPS AA All-Stars: Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Angel Salome.

On the flip side, Corey Hart's 2008 OBP was the fourth worst among full time outfielders.

On the hot stove:

Marlins: The team and Hanley Ramirez reportedly have differing opinions on whether or not he should play winter ball. The team has told him to stay home and rest.
Phillies: Could be looking to make a move on Raul Ibanez.
Royals: Acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for RP Ramon Ramirez.

In other news, the owners have agreed to ensure all playoff games go at least nine innings, but won't make a decision on blackout policy until January.

A scheduling note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go hunting for several days, and while I'll be available to write on occasion in the evenings, my mornings will be tied up. Roguejim has agreed to handle the Mug for a couple of days early next week, and I'll be back on Friday. The Mug may take a couple of days off for the holiday in the middle. While I'm gone, I'm still hoping to finish my AFL recap and I'll likely be lurking from time to time.

Oh, and I'm not worried about increasing competition.

Drink up.

In Arizona: Wednesday, Lou Palmisano entered the game as a pinch runner and went 0-for-1 with a walk as the Javelinas got shut out by Scottsdale, 5-0.

Thursday, the Brewer bats came to life. Brent Brewer went 2-for-4 with two solo home runs, and Lou Palmisano went 3-for-4 with a solo shot. David Welch pitched 1.2 scoreless innings and the Javelinas won their season finale 13-6 over Phoenix.

The Javelinas did not qualify for postseason play. I'll have an AFL recap sometime in the coming days.

In Mexico: Casey McGehee went 2-for-4 with a single and an RBI Wednesday, extending his hitting streak to 18 games.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar went 1-for-5 and was caught stealing for Lara Wednesday. He's hit in eight straight games.
• Tony Gwynn went 1-for-5 and struck out three times for Magallanes Wednesday. He's striking out once every 3.6 AB in VWL play.
• Hernan Iribarren walked and was caught stealing in his only plate appearance for Lara Thursday.
• Brendan Katin went 3-for-9 over the last two days for Zulia, scoring a run and striking out three times.

In the Dominican Republic: Joe Bateman had another scoreless outing Wednesday, pitching an inning and striking out one.

In Puerto Rico:

• Mike Rivera is now 0-for his last 14 after going 0-for-4 with a strikeout Wednesday.
• Richie Gardner also continues to struggle, giving up seven runs on eight hits and two walks in 3.1 innings of work Wednesday.

My internet just came back after taking an all-morning hiatus. I've got too much on my calendar to write the Mug now, so the Mug is going to have to take an off-day.

Consider this an open thread to discuss unreliable internet, places you'd like Rickie Weeks to play in 2008, your favorite Arizona Fall League moment (the final AFL games of the regular season are today), or anything else that may strike you.

Also, here's a picture of Gorman:

Have a good day.

Some things to read while waiting for your gummy legos to solidify.

So the Brewers are still waiting for a response from CC Sabathia regarding their contract offer. Meanwhile, Home Run Derby thinks Sabathia signing in New York would be the worst possible outcome for everyone involved.

In the meantime, the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles have all turned their attention to A.J. Burnett.

As I mentioned yesterday, the 2009 Marcels are out. My spreadsheet is sitting in exactly the same condition it was yesterday, but Balking Traditionalism has combined the 2009 Marcels with Sean Smith's 2009 defensive projections to create a starting point for 2009 Brewer projections.

That's about all that's out there for Brewer news today, so let's move right to the hot stove:

Blue Jays: The team still appears interested in bringing back A.J. Burnett, but beyond that they may not be players in free agency.
Cubs: Signed Ryan Dempster to a 4-year deal yesterday. This may preclude them from trading for Jake Peavy. They are, however, interested in acquiring Mark Teahen from the Royals.
Marlins: Placed C Mike Rabelo on waivers to remove him from their 40-man roster.
Orioles: Are still in the hunt for Mark Teixiera.
Tigers: Have reportedly been in touch with free agent RP Joe Beimel.

Another BBWAA Award, another day of stories about how the BBWAA blew it. Chuckie Hacks noticed a 5th place vote for Jason Bartlett. Beyond the Box Score has a step-by-step plan for discrediting the BBWAA Awards.

The saga is over: The Mariners have named a new manager, and it's Don Wakamatsu.

There are some records in baseball that may never be approached again. Ripken's consecutive games played streak. DiMaggio's hitting streak. Cy Young's wins. But does 70 home runs belong on that list? Beyond the Box Score takes a look at what it would take and gives an edge to, of all people, Rangers prospect Chris Davis.

Depending on how you like your off-topic conclusion, I've got three options for you today:

• The last two issues of "By the Numbers," the newsletter of SABR's Statistical Analysis Committee, are now available online.
• It's a Woot-off day.
• This guy can hit a baseball with nunchucks.

Drink up.

In Arizona: Brent Brewer went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk, Lorenzo Cain went 0-for-3, and Omar Aguilar gave up two runs on a hit and two walks in 1.1 innings of work as the Javelinas lost to Mesa, 10-4. The two runs Aguilar allowed were his first in Arizona, ending a 10 game, 10.1 inning scoreless streak in AFL play.

The Javelinas travel to Scottsdale for their final AFL home game tonight at 8:35.

In Mexico:

• Casey McGehee went 1-for-4 with a single to stretch his hitting streak to seventeen games for Culiacan.
• Chris Narveson pitched 6.1 innings, allowing just two runs on two hits, two walks and striking out six, but he picked up a no-decision for Hermosillo. He has a 3.54 ERA in Mexico in 40.2 IP, with 42 K and 9 BB in that time.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run for Lara. He has a hit in seven straight games.
• Tony Gwynn went 1-for-3 with a walk and scored a run for Magallanes.
• Hernan Iribarren went 1-for-5 and was caught stealing for Lara.
• Brendan Katin went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts for Zulia. He's 2-for his last 18 with seven strikeouts.
• Guilder Rodriguez had hits on back to back days for Lara, going 1-for-5 on Sunday and 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored Monday.

In the Dominican Republic: Juan Sandoval appears to have switched teams from Licey to Oriente, and pitched 1.2 perfect innings in his first two appearances for Oriente on Sunday and Monday.

In Puerto Rico:

• Martin Maldonado struck out in his only plate appearance for Mayaguez.
• Mike Rivera went 0-for-4 with a strikeout for Santurce. Maybe playing everyday isn't his thing after all: He's 0-for his last 10 with five strikeouts.

Some things to read while firming up your evening plans.

I don't really have much for you today, but the 2009 Marcel Projections are out, so if you've got a big empty gap in your schedule that's usually filled by the Mug but isn't today, you could go play with those. I've got them open in another window right now, waiting for a handful of free minutes.

Everyone else with time on their hands is talking about the NL MVP voting and the various BBWAA writers who came in with off the wall selections. This time the conversation hits close to home, as one of the writers taking a lot of criticism is our own Tom H, who had Albert Pujols seventh on his ballot, behind Prince Fielder. That's both the lowest Pujols appeared and the highest Fielder appeared on any ballot. Let's wander through the field of frustration for a moment:

• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wants to know how Chase Utley finished 15th. So do some of the commenters in this FanShot.
• Chuckie Hacks called Tom H.'s ballot "asinine" and wonders how Carlos Delgado could've ended up ahead of Pujols.
• Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score says the most valuable Brewer wasn't neither Braun or Fielder, it was J.J. Hardy.
• Baseball Musings thought Braun belonged around eighth. That's about where I expected him to finish too.
• The commenters over at Baseball Think Factory are having some fun with Tom H.'s ballot too.
• Goatriders of the Apocalypse thought the 2008 NL MVP was...Brad Lidge? I still have no idea how Lidge got two first place votes.
• The Griddle wasn't a fan of Tom H.'s ballot either.
• Lookout Landing is also unimpressed with Chase Utley's 15th place finish.
• Peter Gammons is upset about Hanley Ramirez's 11th place finish.
• Todd Zolecki reveals the one voter who left Ryan Howard off of his MVP ballot.

Now, moving on: I thought we had already heard the Sabathia Sweepstakes chronicled from every angle, but we hadn't...no one had asked LeBron James. That problem was remedied yesterday.

Also, Hot Foot thinks the Mets should sign Ben Sheets.

If the BBWAA voters had seen this, they probably would've voted about the same anyway: Bill James says Prince Fielder is the seventh worst baserunner in baseball.

If only all the decisions were this easy: The Brewers must either place Mark Rogers on the 40-man roster, or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. I don't think there's much risk there.

Everyone knows versatility is an important skill. That's why the Brewers had two catchers in the top ten and bottom ten in Recondite Baseball's minor league CS% leaderboards.

On the hot stove:

Braves: Submitted a contract offer to Will Ohman yesterday.
Giants: Signed Jeremy Affeldt yesterday, the first free agent of the offseason to sign with a new team.
Mets: Are reportedly making offers to Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Derek Lowe.
Phillies: are reportedly pursuing relievers Juan Cruz, Doug Brocail and Russ Springer.
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his throwing shoulder.

Elsewhere, it appears the Mariners could announce a new manager as soon as today and it won't be Ned Yost or Willie Randolph.

Matt LaPorta has had quite the season. He played for two minor league teams, was part of a blockbuster trade, got hit in the head by a pitch in the Olympics, and got the flu and fouled a pitch off his ankle in Venezuela. He returned home yesterday and my guess would be he's ready for a break.

A tech note: MLB.com is dumping Microsoft Silverlight and switching over to Flash. All I knew about Silverlight was that it was a pain to have to tell my computer I didn't want it every time I logged into Gameday Audio. Good riddance.

Oh, and the Brewers never really found another blogger to pick up the slack after Taylor Green was sent home from the AFL, so we'll have to settle for Mariner prospect Joe Woerman's story about getting nailed by a speed limit enforcement camera.

Drink up.

In Arizona: Lorenzo Cain went 1-for-4 with a double and a walk and Alexandre Periard got shelled, giving up six runs on eight hits and four walks in 3.2 innings of work as the Javelinas lost to Mesa, 13-6. Braves prospect Tommy Hanson pitched five scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and striking out ten to pick up his fifth AFL victory.

The Javelinas host Mesa at 1:35 today.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar went 1-for-3 to extend his hitting streak to six games.
• Hernan Iribarren went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and scored a run for Lara.
• Brendan Katin went 2-for-4 with a double, a triple and three RBI for Zulia.

In The Dominican Republic: Rafael Lluberes pitched on Sunday and put up a scoreless inning despite allowing two walks. He's walked four in his last five outings, spanning 2.2 innings.

So, as noted in this morning's Fall/Winter League Update, the Hawaii Winter Baseball season concluded on Sunday with West Oahu's 5-1 loss to Waikiki in the HWB Championship Game. All told, five Brewers played in Hawaii this fall. Let's take a closer look at their performances:

It's worth noting before we begin that Hawaii is a bit of a pitchers' league, with a league OPS of .701, even with the DH in effect. The 2008 NL OPS, for comparison purposes, was .744, without the DH. The AL OPS was .756.

Caleb Gindl, OF

What we knew: Gindl spent the 2008 regular season in West Virginia (low-A), where he hit .307/.388/.474 in 508 regular season at-bats. Gindl turned 20 in August, and was a South Atlantic League Postseason All Star in 2008. In 2007, he led the Pioneer League (Rookie+) in batting average and finished second in OBP. He was selected to the Pioneer League Postseason All Star Team and the Baseball America Rookie All Star Team, and rated as the second best prospect in the Pioneer League and 10th best in the Brewer organization.

What we saw in Hawaii: Gindl played in 25 of the CaneFires' 36 games in Hawaii, batting .281/.361/.438 (.799 OPS) in 96 AB. He crushed righties to the tune of .409/.500/.727 in 44 AB, but hit just .160/.208/.160 in 50 AB vs lefties. During the regular season was actually more productive against lefties. He was the second youngest position player on the CaneFires, and the youngest outfielder by a year and a half. In the field, he made two errors in right, but so far that's all we know.

What to take away from it: 2008 was Gindl's first full professional season, so the simple fact that he was able to hold up through 137 games in West Virginia and another 7 weeks in Hawaii is notable. On the field, Gindl's .799 OPS was above league average, but only the fifth best on his team. All told, this is another promising step for Gindl, but it's probably about the performance one would expect from a well-regarded young prospect.

Logan Schafer, OF:

What we knew: Schafer was the Brewers third round pick in the 2008 Draft, and after a brief stop in Helena he spent most of his first pro season patrolling center field in West Virginia, where he hit .276/.306/.370 in 43 games. It's worth noting that, while this is Schafer's first pro season, he played in college and is already 22, almost two full years older than Gindl.

What we saw in Hawaii: Schafer played in 25 games for the CaneFires, hitting .253/.351/.349 (.700 OPS) in 83 ABs. He stole three bases in four attempts. Small sample size is certainly a factor, but Schafer's splits were all over the place. Nearly all of his extra base hitting came against lefties, where he hit .304/.298/.457. Against righties, his power dissipated but his plate discipline improved dramatically, to the tune of .167/.388/.194. He drew 13 walks against righties, none against lefties. He also hit .326/.420/.465 during the day and .175/.277/.225 at night. His minor league splits suggest he's always been more selective against righties.

What to take away from it: I didn't feel like Gindl played enough to get a fully accurate evaluation, and Schafer played even less. The downside of being a college player in the low minors is that is really only takes a bump or two in the road to end up past the prospect age and still in the minors. Schafer could start 2009 in Brevard County, but he'll be 23 before the season ends and at this point he hasn't done much to establish himself as an upper-echelon prospect. On a positive note, he took as many walks in 86 AB's in Hawaii (13) as he did in 206 ABs between Helena and West Virginia. If he can get his OBP up into the .350-.360 range, his low slugging percentage will be much more tolerable.

Chris Cody, SP

What we knew: Chris Cody is 24 years old and was acquired in the deal that once and for all removed Jose Capellan from the Brewers. He was showered with awards during his collegiate career at Manhattan College, had a good first pro season split between the Tigers and Brewers, and a better second year, going 6-6 with a 1.81 ERA over 114.2 IP (19 appearances, 17 starts) between West Virginia and Brevard County.

What we saw in Hawaii: Cody made eight appearances (7 starts) in Hawaii, and alternated between good and bad starts in an incredibly predictable fashion, giving up just three runs on nine hits in 19 innings of work (1.42 ERA) in starts 1, 3, 5 and 7 and giving up 11 runs on 19 hits in just 12.1 innings of work (8.05 ERA) in starts 2, 4 and 6. He did throw 4.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen, including 3.2 scoreless in long relief in the HWB Championship game Sunday. Overall, he did not factor in the decision in any of his appearances, but posted a 3.50 ERA in 35 innings of work (including those 3.2 postseason innings). Cody's 32.1 regular season innings were the fourth most thrown by any pitcher in Hawaii.

What to take away from it: At 24, Chris Cody was one of the older players on the CaneFires, and more than four full years older than some players. His flashes of brilliance were at longest 5 innings long and bookended by ineffective starts. Cody is lefthanded and had a relatively dominant season in A-ball (where he was also one of the older players), but he'll come into spring training at 25 years old without ever having pitched above Brevard County, so time is not his friend at the moment.

Cody Scarpetta, SP

What we knew: Scarpetta was an 11th round draft pick in 2007 but didn't actually take the field until rookie ball in 2008 due to a tendon injury in his hand which he explained to Battlekow in this interview. After missing a year to rehab the injury, he split 2008 between Rookie ball stops in Arizona and Helena, going 2-0 with a 2.23 ERA between the two stops in just 36.1 innings. Scarpetta turned 20 in August, and while I don't know this for sure, I'd guess he had as little or less pro experience than any other player in Hawaii. He replaced Mike Ramlow on the CaneFires' roster mid-season.

What we saw in Hawaii: Obviously, as someone who joined a short-season league midseason, Scarpetta didn't get a lot of playing time in Hawaii, but he did factor in the decision of each of his five Hawaii starts, including one postseason start, going 2-3 with a 7.96 ERA in 14.2 innings. He walked 11 over that stretch but also struck out 18, including eight in one start in a dominant win a week ago.

What to take away from it: It's hard to be excited about a pitcher who got rocked a few times and showed control issues, but I don't know how much the Brewers could have reasonably expected from a guy who had only pitched 36 pro innings and never pitched above rookie ball. Scarpetta's few bright spots were pretty bright, though, and show some hope for a guy who's still pretty young.

Mike Ramlow, RP

What we knew: Ramlow just finished his third season in the Brewers organization, and his first full season as a reliever. In 2007, Ramlow went 5-5 with a 6.11 ERA in 104.2 innings, primarily as a starter for West Virginia. In 2008, Ramlow repeated the Sally League and pitched mainly out of the bullpen (25 of 31 appearances), posting a 2.59 ERA in 90.1 innings of work with a 0.94 WHIP. Ramlow is a lefty and will turn 23 in March.

What we saw in Hawaii: Ramlow appeared in six games early in the HWB season, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 10.1 innings of work. He allowed ten hits and five walks in those innings for a WHIP of 1.45. He was replaced in Hawaii on October 21 by Cody Scarpetta with no mention of injury, so he might have been injured, the team might have just decided to replace him, or the CaneFires might have needed another starter.

What to take away from it: Not much, really. Ramlow might have found his calling as a reliever, but there's not much he could have done in 10.1 innings in Hawaii to confirm or deny that.

Some things to read instead of simulating a universe with rocks.

So if you missed the announcement yesterday, I decided to go ahead and create the Brew Crew Ball WhatifSports League. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, click this link for an explanation. There are only 12 teams in the league and two have already been created, so if you want one of the 10 remaining spots, click the first link soon.

As the trade market continues to swirl, you may find yourself wondering, "Has anyone ever created a database featuring every trade Doug Melvin has ever made as a major league general manager?" Yes, someone has.

There are more than a handful of free agent predictions out there today, so I'll just dump them into bullet points and you can decide for yourself what's worth noting:

• Fire Brand of the American League predicts the Brewers will pick up Jeremy Affeldt and Brad Penny, and has the Brewers as the runner-up to land Juan Cruz and Jon Garland.
• The Pinstriper has the Brewers signing Brad Penny, Juan Cruz, Jeremy Affeldt, Russell Branyan and Brad Wilkerson.
• Baseball Blogging Network says the Brewers would be a good fit for Trevor Hoffman. So does FakeTeams.
• A monkey drawing names and teams out of a plastic cup thinks CC Sabathia will be a Marlin.

Let's move right into a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs estimates Sabathia's value at 6 years, $162 million.
• Blue Jays beat writer Jordan Bastian says the Yankees' big offer to Sabathia could impact the Jays' negotiations with A.J. Burnett.
• Chone Smith has a projection for the 2009 Yankees that includes Sabathia, Burnett AND Derek Lowe.
• The Mets reportedly are not pursuing Sabathia after all.
• Sabathia received one vote in ESPN's NL MVP balloting.
• Oh, it's THOSE Girls has made a list of pros and cons for Sabathia to consider before signing or not signing in New York.

Staying on the mound, there are a few notes out there regarding Ben Sheets. Crawfish Boxes has combined predictions for the Astros for 2009 and the monetary value of a win to make the case that, in Houston, signing Ben Sheets could pay for itself. USS Mariner thinks the Mariners should also be keeping a close eye on him. Finally, Recondite Baseball noted that Sheets was one of only twelve pitchers since 1990 to post a season with a WHIP under 1 and pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. (Sheets did it in 2004)

Will the Brewers trade one high priced, high injury risk pitcher for another? Adam McCalvy says the Brewers are not a likely candidate to sign Kerry Wood. Neither are the Tigers.

On defense: Baseball Musings Probabilistic Model of Range has the Brewers 23rd in baseball in first base defense, and Prince Fielder well below average at 95.26. On the flip side, Brewer catchers ranked first, and Jason Kendall was the best full-time defensive catcher in all of baseball at 109.97. It's worth noting that a measure of range isn't really the complete picture on catcher defense.

Two prospect notes today: The Official Site has another look at Lorenzo Cain's impressive season in the AFL, and Hot-prospects.net thinks the Brewers will have Brent Brewer play in Brevard County for the third straight season in 2009.

Elsewhere, around the hot stove:

A's: Might be looking to trade Bobby Crosby.
Braves: Are reportedly out of the running for Jake Peavy but may have interest in A.J. Burnett.
Cardinals: Are reportedly making left-handed relief and shortstop a priority.
Cubs: May consider offering a deal to Randy Johnson.

As Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Trevor Hoffman and others continue to sit on the free agent market, Big League Stew asks when everyone started hating closers. The answer is pretty resounding: "When they started asking for 5/$75 deals."

Does the ball fly differently at Miller Park based on the month? Beyond the Box Score did the math and the answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes.

FanGraphs has resurrected their "Get to know a stat" series. The first two up this time are First pitch strike percentage and outside swing percentage.

Looking for something to do in between Mugs? Apparently MLB.com is hiring. I think I may polish my resume a bit today.

Oh, and as someone witnessing way too much wedding planning, seeing virtually every picture taken at Chad Cordero's wedding was a bit more than I needed this morning.

Drink up.