Serious Analysis
"Say there, Grant," no one has ever asked. "Don't you remember the last time a Giants team was given absolutely no chance to compete? Hello, 1997?" Interesting point, questioner made up to introduce this post. That's still my favorite Giants season of the past 15 years. Let's go through and compare both teams at each position.
C - Bengie Molina isn't an All-Star, and his on-base percentage is usually pretty wretched. Still, he gives a little pop from the catcher's position, which is more than the remains of Rick Wilkins provided. Brian Johnson came in at the trading deadline and provided some fluky-clutch goodness, but Molina is a better bet.
Advantage: 2008
1B - Faced with starting a non-prospect like Desi Wilson, Brian Sabean traded for a youngish first baseman whose value had bottomed out after a down season. This player's minor league career indicated that he could be an average MLB hitter, even if he was likely to be below the positional average for first base. That move worked out so horribly that there was no way Sabean would make the same mistake this offseason by filling the first base hole with a sense of urgency.
The Snow trade was widely reviled by the internet baseball nerd consortium, but at least Snow had a MLB season under his belt (1995 - .289/.353/.465) that was as good as Dan Ortmeier's best season in the minors.
Advantage: 1997
2B - Jeff Kent was good...but he wasn't Hall-of-Fame good yet. His .250/.316/.472 line was about what the Giants had a right to expect in 1997. There's a small chance that Ray Durham could better that line - he did from 1998 to 2006, after all - but the odds are that Durham ain't gonna find what's been lost, and Kevin Frandsen probably won't come too close to a .472 slugging percentage at any point during his career.
Advantage: 1997
SS - Jose Vizcaino hit .266/.323/.350 in 1997, which is about what the Giants should have expected. Vizquel will probably put up similar numbers, but his defense is still an improvement on vintage Vizcaino's defense.
Advantage: 2008
3B - If the Giants get the production from third in 2008 that they did from the Bill Mueller/Mark Lewis combo in 1997, it will be a small miracle.
Advantage: 1997
CF - Darryl Hamilton had a fine year with the glove and bat, but Aaron Rowand will supply a bit more power to go along with the sweet fielding.
Advantage: 2008
RF - Glenallen Hill had a sub-.300 on-base percentage, and he had the defensive mobility of that AT-AT from Empire Strikes Back with its legs bound together. Randy Winn is Randy Winn, but that's better than Glenallen Hill.
Advantage: 2008
SP - Shawn Estes had the best year of his career, as did Kirk Rueter. If Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum combine for 390 innings of 125 ERA+, we'd probably all consider that a successful year. The 2008 Giants have more depth, though. Barry Zito, Noah Lowry, and Kevin Correia/Jonathan Sanchez are better options than Mark Gardner, Osvaldo Fernandez, and William Van Landingham, for sure.
Advantage: 2008
RP - Rod Beck had a pretty nice season, Fred McGriff aside, and Julian Tavarez and Doug Henry had nice first halves. Still, the bullpen was mostly a disaster until the team traded for Roberto Hernandez. The 2008 Giants have more potential, but it's tough to call this one.
Advantage: Push
Lessee....that's five positional advantages for 2008, three for 1997, and one push.
It's settled: The Giants will win the division in a thrilling fashion! I don't see any problems with my analysis. Nope. No flaws in the methodology, no egregious exclusions. Nothing like that.
Comment starter: What scrub will hit the memorable home run against the Dodger lefty?
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59 comments
Comments
Re: Serious Analysis
Travis Ishikawa
by Natto on Feb 8, 2008 1:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by oneflapdown on Feb 8, 2008 1:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by raisingcain on Feb 8, 2008 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Skaldheim on Feb 8, 2008 1:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
Advantage 2008
by WilliamVanLandingham on Feb 8, 2008 1:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Kitspool on Feb 8, 2008 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by ResDog on Feb 8, 2008 1:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by leftymalo on Feb 8, 2008 1:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
I had a friend who used to do it. Snowmo.
by Grant on Feb 8, 2008 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by billiejameshayes on Feb 8, 2008 1:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The spark for 1997
He joined Boston in 1997 and they went 78-84, finishing in fourth place.
You decide!
by mlb22 on Feb 8, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
I hope Ortmeier and Frandsen are the second coming of Clark and Thompson! Go Giants!
by Mike New on Feb 8, 2008 2:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by nick on Feb 8, 2008 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I love to hear this...
by Andy from DC on Feb 8, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I love to hear this...
by EliminateMe on Feb 8, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I love to hear this...
Play (something like) Ball!
by Moggeee on Feb 9, 2008 12:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by GaryEdmundCarter on Feb 8, 2008 2:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
And how dare you not mention Rich Rodriguez in your bullpen analysis? Dude was solid. There are just so many holes in this post.
It's almost like you're deliberately excluding the most important parts.
by groug on Feb 8, 2008 2:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
No kidding...
by UnleashTheGore on Feb 8, 2008 2:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Darwin? And Javier?
by blank on Feb 10, 2008 3:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Feb 8, 2008 2:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
Even if we only had to field 8 players, we'd still suck.
by wjackalope on Feb 8, 2008 2:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Natto on Feb 8, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
The Bums are somewhat better this season than at the same time 11 years ago.Greg Gagne at short, Wilton Guerrero at second and Todd Zeile at third; Raul Mondesi and Todd Hollandsworth in the OF corners and the platoon of Roger Cedeno and Brett Butler in center - these are not lineups that can compare to what the Bums will trot out in 2008.
About the only place the team takes a step down is at first base, and only because Karros had his best season in '97.
I could probably make similar comparisons to the other teams in the West as well (Dante Bichette in Colorado, Greg Vaughn in San Diego).
As much as it would be nice to think the Giants could rise up and surprise people, logic says that the three other teams in the NL West are better prepared to keep the Giants down in 2008.
by Teh Nuschler Face on Feb 8, 2008 3:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Using Those Rose Colored Glasses Again
Could the following 6 small advantages overcome the following 2 large disadvantages?
Advantage 08 Molina vs 97 Wilkins/Johnson
Advantage 08 Konerko vs 97 Snow
Advantage 08 Crede vs 97 Mueller/Lewis
Advantage 08 Vizquel vs 97 Vizcaino
Advantage 08 Rowand vs 97 Hamilton/Javier
Advantage 08 Schierholtz/Ortmeier vs 97 Hill/Javier
Disadvantage 08 Durham/Frandsen vs 97 Kent
Disadvantage 08 Lewis/Davis vs 97 Bonds
by giantsrainman on Feb 8, 2008 3:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Using Those Rose Colored Glasses Again
by daveinexile on Feb 8, 2008 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
BTW wasn't Fred Mcgriff's HR back in 93'. If I rememebr correctly it was right after Atlanta got him, and right before the all-star game. It kind of catipulted the Braves. Thanks grant, now Im feeling suicidal again.
by ramirez415 on Feb 8, 2008 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by rocketdog on Feb 8, 2008 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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by howtheyscored on Feb 8, 2008 4:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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by milesntrane on Feb 8, 2008 5:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Grant on Feb 8, 2008 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
I'm kind of hoping that you built the entire column backwards knowing that you'd get to say, "No, I mentioned Mark Lewis."
by hammystyle on Feb 8, 2008 6:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
Do you ever, when writing these main page posts, make bets with yourself on how many people will miss the joke? And if so, what was the over/under for this post? Currently, I count 2 or 3, depending on how much credit you're willing to give.
by marcello on Feb 8, 2008 5:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by howtheyscored on Feb 8, 2008 6:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by jponry on Feb 8, 2008 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We do Serious Analysis
He gets testy just about this time of year, every year.
by Moggeee on Feb 9, 2008 1:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Grant on Feb 9, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
Besides, transparent suits you...especially something lacey.
by Goofus on Feb 9, 2008 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Grant on Feb 9, 2008 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Feb 9, 2008 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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by zenbitz on Feb 9, 2008 7:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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by marcello on Feb 9, 2008 10:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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by howtheyscored on Feb 9, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
Gatta love The Denker.
by Kid Fresh on Feb 8, 2008 5:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Feb 8, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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by WalrusMan on Feb 9, 2008 10:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
This will cause nightmares that go all the way until the following opening day, as we imagine yet another season where Not Dave Roberts is sitting on the bench.
by Gabafnerhagen on Feb 8, 2008 7:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
Then again, if we're comparing pitching staffs, the 1997 bunch was a ragtime band. This 2008 group could be the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Only problem is, the hitters should be nicknamed Low Tide.
by sectionop92 on Feb 8, 2008 7:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
I think you should write a post about William Roger Clemen's wife.
by Mrbasepaul on Feb 8, 2008 9:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Who eliminates the Fodgers?
by Lyle on Feb 9, 2008 8:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
The Giants' minor leagues -- particularly the low minors -- will however be about 11 games per team better.
by sharksrog on Feb 9, 2008 1:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Who pulls an Ortmeier?
by chefasaurus on Feb 10, 2008 1:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Whipping Boy on Feb 10, 2008 4:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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by daveinexile on Feb 10, 2008 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Whipping Boy on Feb 11, 2008 2:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by Natto on Feb 12, 2008 8:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Serious Analysis
by howtheyscored on Feb 12, 2008 8:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We Came, We Saw, We Beat It
We beat it because it's a dead horse.
by Moggeee on Feb 14, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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