The Prestige
A progression of offseason hopes:
- October 30 - Trade Noah Lowry for a 23-year-old future All Star first baseman and two starting shortstops. Then let the shortstops battle it out in the spring.
- November 17 - Trade Jonathan Sanchez for a young corner infielder, but only if it's a sensible trade.
- November 20 - Put the Lincecum down, and step away from the phone. Hands where I can see them.
- December 13 - Do something. Anything. Freakin' dying of boredom here.
- December 18 - Wait, I take that back. Don't sign anymore center fielders. Please.
- January 15 - Make Dave Roberts disappear.
So now we're left with this last hope: Trade Dave Roberts, eat $10M of the remaining $13M of his contract, and start either Nate Schierholtz or a Rajai Davis/Fred Lewis tandem in left. Please. It'd be a $10M payment towards an installment plan of interesting. The Giants aren't going to contend. So, please, just let us watch young players who might contribute to a contending team of the future. Let us form opinions on these young players. Let us have hopes for them. If they flop, let us realize that we need different young players. Please. Throw a bone to the nerds who are on a baseball site in January, and to Giants fans everywhere.
Roberts's second half (.291/.362/.388) might tempt an outfielder-starved team. I received an e-mail with a fourth-hand rumor that the Padres might be interested. At this point, I'll take any rumor like that I can get. The Red Sox have an opening for their fifth outfielder's slot, and Roberts could rent a little condo on Dave Roberts Way in Boston. If not the Red Sox, then someone will want a free Dave Roberts. Well, Dave Roberts would be free. Then the other team will receive a new veteran every month for just $3M plus shipping. They can cancel at any time, but maybe they'll forget and wake up in July to a team with Roberts, Rich Aurilia, and Ray Durham. We can only hope.
I'm resigned to watching either Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum in a total of 40% of the games this year, and, really, that's a hell of a consolation prize. Most really awful teams don't have anyone worth watching, so the Giants are ahead of the curve. By donating Dave Roberts to the Salvation Army of MLB, the Giants could give us another player or two or three worth watching. Having one of the team's under-30 outfielders in the starting lineup would be the most satisfying part of the offseason.
Please?
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91 comments
Comments
Re: The Prestige
So yeah, trade Roberts. Or at least be willing to make him the team's fourth/fifth outfielder (lol that would never happen.)
by jponry on Jan 15, 2008 11:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Grant, if this is the Prestige, did I miss the Pledge and the Turn already? And I certainly hope you aren't killing a doppelganger with every diary you start. Ick.
by Lyle on Jan 16, 2008 6:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Weird, this is like the 3rd time we've had a Prestige Spoiler in the last year...
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Well, I guess THAT'S coming off the queue....
by howtheyscored on Jan 20, 2008 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by Aadik on Jan 15, 2008 11:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Or get a two-year extension.
In which case it wouldn't really be a silver lining but more like a silver kick to my balls.
by Woody Wins on Jan 15, 2008 1:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
depressing and sad, but funny.
by The Gene Hackman on Jan 15, 2008 6:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Amen.
by victor frankenstein on Jan 15, 2008 7:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by someguynamedg on Jan 15, 2008 11:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
What about Velez and Burris?.. Lets give them a shot too.
Imagine a lineup with Davis, Velez and Burris. I'd love to see those guys go wild on the base pads.
Hey while were at it, why don't we deal Molina.. I love the guy, but he slows down our lineup and his ability to throw runners out has declined substantially. Plus we got two decent backups.
I hear the Reds are looking for a productive bat behind the plate.. Molina could hit 25 to 30 homers in that park.
Lets pull a billy beane here Sabes!! Do it!!
by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 11:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
"Besides, the Giants need him in left field, since the other leading outfield candidates -- Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz -- are virtually rookies and lack a track record."
That sentence is so depressing. It exemplifies everything that is wrong with the Giants mindset.
by FavoriteSpring on Jan 15, 2008 11:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by jponry on Jan 15, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
sorry.
by jponry on Jan 15, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
oh Haft
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 15, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: oh Haft
by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
It doesn't exemplify the Giants mindset, it is the Giants mindset. Chris Haft has spent a year now hanging around the masterminds of this organization and apparently he's been talked into their specious arguments. There's a term for this type of identifying with your captors: it's called the Stockholm Syndrome.
by Kitspool on Jan 15, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I CAN'T!
by lrs77 on Jan 15, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by Evan on Jan 15, 2008 12:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
- Dave Roberts to the WhiteSox for Joe Crede without any dollars changing hands.
- Dave Roberts and Rich Aurilia to the Tigers for Branden Inge without any dollars changing hands.
Is time to also reconsider Ray Durham to the Mariners for Richie Sexson and Cash to balance the contracts?
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2008 12:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
3) Dave Roberts to the Padres for three Rubio's fish tacos. Man those suckers are good; Thighler could probably handle ten or so.
by oooreebay on Jan 15, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I grew up in San Diego,now I'm stuck in the desert with nary a fish taco to be found. Edible ones anyway. Mmmmmm......Rubios.
by nvsfg on Jan 15, 2008 3:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by oooreebay on Jan 16, 2008 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
WShat about...
by victor frankenstein on Jan 15, 2008 7:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
1) No major injuries to Cain, Tim or Wilson. Moderate or better progression in harnessing their talent.
2)Add significant value to 4 (or more) position players under team control post Sept, `09. Significant being defined as players that Sabean & Co. would be comfortable handing a role to confirmed by most other teams in MLB would be willing to give a role to the same player is they had him
Is this too much to ask?
by daveinexile on Jan 15, 2008 1:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Currently Pounding Head Against Wall
This is a year that has seen blue chip prospects change hands (i.e. Dukes, Milledge, Delmon Young, Hamilton) as well as solid young players (all of Detroit's system, most of the D'Bags) and even some vets who I would have considered taking to fill a corner (Rolen, Glaus, fuck it...even Broussard) and all of that really pisses me off.
What pisses me off more, however, is that in the Giants doing of nothing we still have Roberts, Aurilia, and Ray Ray blocking what little young in house talent we have. Schierholtz played well enough last year in limited time to earn a shot. Frandsen started slow and then hit the crap out of the ball the last month and a half. I know I'm not saying anything new, but does Brian Sabean really want an empty phonebooth that they still owe a shitload of money on? I think they might...
Furthermore, we are really getting to the end of the hot stove action and I would like to ask some questions, is Andy LaRoche at all available? Could we trade a reliever like Kline to the Astros for Darin Erstad? I think I might like Erstad, at least he could play first on a speed and defense team. I want a lot, let's make something happen... please?
by lincysgiants on Jan 15, 2008 1:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Erstad?
by groug on Jan 15, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by groug on Jan 15, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by Evan on Jan 15, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by oooreebay on Jan 15, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by victor frankenstein on Jan 15, 2008 7:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
I would like to take a flier on a guy like Shelton as much as the next guy, but be realistic... you know Sabes will sign a veteran to "push" Ortmeier. And do we want two unproven commodities at first?
by lincysgiants on Jan 15, 2008 11:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
.645, .605, .696
There is absolutely without a doubt indisputably 100% for sure in the absolute most certain way possible no reason in the world to sign him to any team at all, period, no doubt, do not think there are any positives here. At this point a random 27 year old career minor leaguer would probably outhit him.
Darin Erstad is an awful awful awful awful baseball player. I don't have any jokes to go here. He's terrible.
by groug on Jan 16, 2008 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
Where every other character became a parody of him or herself, Chandler actually became a character with depth where he had not been one before. He was, in essence, the only redeeming factor of the last 3-5 years of that show.
Also contrary to that joke, I will not buy any of the seasons of Friends, as though I find it mildly amusing, I don't make a habit of buying hundreds of hours of being occassionally entertained.
Also, the series finale was teh uberlame. Yeah, I said it.
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
Yes, I guess it has.
by thehavenot on Jan 16, 2008 11:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by oldrips on Jan 16, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
Besides, everyone knows I'm just coasting off my earlier success. I haven't made any good jokes since early 2006, and even that one was an accident.
by groug on Jan 16, 2008 1:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by Evan on Jan 16, 2008 7:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Erstad?
by groug on Jan 16, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Currently Pounding Head Against Wall
by jasomack on Jan 15, 2008 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
i feel like its the day before xmas, im on the gottschalks santas lap, hes smelling of wild turkey and garlic, and he isnt listening to a thing im asking for. im from a poor family so i know not to ask for too much, and hes ignoring me anyway. i dont want a toy train santa, ive had a toy train. it cant hit curveballs, santa. i want a nintendo...its older and may be broken and everyone else has playstations and xboxes, but it still might be good for some fun. and it sure as hell is an upgrade from the same old toy train and socks ive been getting the last few years. hey santa, go to ebay and get me that nintendo cheap!
by son of riles on Jan 15, 2008 1:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by daveinexile on Jan 15, 2008 1:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by Giant Escape on Jan 15, 2008 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by BigO on Jan 15, 2008 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by ramirez415 on Jan 15, 2008 2:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by ResDog on Jan 15, 2008 2:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 15, 2008 11:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by KCDrummer82 on Jan 16, 2008 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by oldrips on Jan 16, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I'd also like to see Winn gone. One position isn't enough to get all these kids into games. And his value is about as strong as its going to be. And I think Lewis could be a comparable player, based on his MiLB numbers and what little he's done in the bigs.
Schierholtz, Davis and Lewis NEED TO PLAY NOW. Velez and Ortmeier need looks as well. Rebuilding teams are supposed to play their young players.
by jasomack on Jan 15, 2008 3:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Rebuilding teams do things like "trade veterans for prospects." Which would apparently, if you ask Sabean, cause all their fans to go away, or become A's fans, or something.
It's utterly ridiculous-- in a year in which Oakland managed to turn JASON KENDALL AND MARK KOTSAY (combined VORP last season: -23 runs) into two promising relief pitchers, a backup catcher and a potential fifth starter, the Giants have done NOTHING to try to get any value out of the sub-zero VORP guys on their roster.
Oakland's gotten rid of every negative-VORP player from last season except for the pitchers and Bobby Crosby. The only move the Giants have made with their FOUR sub-zero VORP guys (Durham, Feliz, Aurilia and Vizquel) has been to re-sign one and try to re-sign a second.
by PaulThomas on Jan 15, 2008 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Roberts has never been durable. He'll give Davis and Lewis their share of ABs all year.
Winn, Molina, Vizquel could very possibly have solid years and be a trading chip for a prospect in August Giving more ABs to Velez, Frandsen, Lewis, Scherholtz and Davis.
Lowry and Sanchez might have solid Spring trainings that increase their trade values. Especially if Lowry can prove to be healthy.
Once we see what kind of talent these kids have, we'll know what we need from the free agent pool in '09 and if its worth trading Linccumm or Cain. They'll be worth twice as much next year - think Bedard.
by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 4:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
As for the kids getting playing time, it's true-- all the veterans will have significant time on the DL, thus giving the kids a chance to play. HOWEVER, considering the need is to focus on THE FUTURE with this team, we shouldn't have to wait for old man Roberts to bust his hip, or crotchety Durham to pull a hammy in order to see the kids get their due time. They should be the starters and the veterans should be coming off the bench as pinch-hitters and substitutes.
Oh well. C'est la fuck it.
by lrs77 on Jan 15, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
But think of the trade value Linccumm and Cain will have next off season. Unless they get hurt (knock on wood!!) these guys are gonna throw 200 or close to 200 innings and strike outs regardless of their W-L records.
We may be able to pick up a handful of tier 1 position prospects and a quality arm in return. Not to mention, holding onto Sanchez and Lowry would help us maintain depth in the rotation.
The free agent pool doesn't look great next year, but we could consider guys like Furcal and Texeria. Or if Wilson doesnt pan out, we could sign Nathan.
by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:Winn, Molina and Vizquel having solid years...
by chefasaurus on Jan 15, 2008 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by KCDrummer82 on Jan 16, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brain Sabean, Steroids
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/15/giants-gm-brian-sabean-could-be-in-hot-water/
by ET90210 on Jan 15, 2008 8:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Meanwhile, we dodged a 2006 bullet when Winn returned to his ordinary, average batting line in 2007 (and people were bemoaning Winn and his contract at that time, you know who you are), and nobody thinks anything of keeping him around and tempt the same fates that brought us 2006. And he's horrible stealing bases.
People tout his RF play, but Roberts was an excellent defensive LF when he was at SanD.
Keeping Roberts around would mean Davis gets extended play in LF and Schierholtz gets to start in RF, or at least share it with Lewis. Keeping Winn around instead means platooning Lewis/Davis in LF instead of starting Schierholtz (people seem to forget that he's not a natural OF and haven't played LF, he's barely learned RF). Schierholtz has performed better than any of our position prospects, if anyone deserves a chance to start, it is he.
There's nothing really extraordinary about Winn in any way, which is not a damning thing, you need players like him, but still, he's average; probably his defense is the only thing above average, but offensively he's average or worse in all the categories.
Roberts, at least, is above average in getting on base, a good thing to have when he is the lead-off guy, above average in steals, above average in stealing percentage (Winn is up to 50% CS now if I recall right), and above average in defense in LF. In addition, he costs us $6.5M per season while Winn is costing us $8M. And if he gets injured, our young players will get to play, whereas Winn plays 150+ games a year.
Lastly, I would think Winn would get us a better prospect in return than would Roberts, for mainly the reasons everyone seems to love Winn for.
Meanwhile, everyone loves Davis but what has he done in the minors? He's shown off 4th OF potential, and if you look past his shiny first month with us, in Sept he hit an ugly .241/.305/.241/.546.
People like to roast Bochy for playing vets and not young players, but who was playing a lot in Aug/Sept? Frandsen and Ortmeier. They were basically our regular right side of the infield during that time. And they played well during that time. In fact, Ortmeier played well during the two extended stints he was up in the majors in 2007.
Yet Ortmeier, people scoff at giving him a shot, but bemoan to the seven seas why, why, why don't the Giants give Davis, who was stone cold in Sept after pitchers figured him out, a chance to play? Plus, Davis, being another young'un, played extensively in August when he was playing well.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 15, 2008 10:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
So as the team currently stands, I'm afraid the best thing for Nate is to just flat out rake at AAA. Freddie becomes the 5th outfielder.
That's why something like a Fred Lewis and a low level pitching prospect for Joe Crede makes sense to me, since someone like Ortmeir can easily fill that 5th outfielder role.
by tellusfrank on Jan 15, 2008 11:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Unfortunately, this isn't true. Randy Winn consistently outperforms Dave Roberts in that he hits for a much higher slugging and adds at least some HRs to the team total. Also, RF defense > LF defense, especially at Mays Field. I don't think Randy is all that spectacular, but he is much much better than Dave Roberts.
One point that can't be stressed enough is the overmphasis and overvaluing of speed in MLB. SB do not add very much to the total offensive output of a player and don't increase his actual value by much. Speed is what leads people to pay 4yr/44mil to Juan Pierre or 2/12 to Dave Roberts.
In addition, Randy Winn is a local boy who has a full no-trade clause in his contract and likely wouldn't be a fan of moving.
Lastly, Dave Roberts is from Japan and i still don't trust asians, ever since Pearl Harbor.
As far as the young'uns go, Rajai Davis showed, in the short time given, That he halls all the skills (speed) and more (defense, high OBP, even better speed, ability to hit doubles). He also plays for 1/18 what Davey boy plays for.
I think Aurilia and Klesko hitting a combined OPS+ of like 73 kind of influenced the decision to play the young guys in the infield.
Ortmeier, however, didn't do all that well. He couldn't take a walk and struck out in 1/3 of his plate appearances.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 15, 2008 11:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Randy Winn of
3 years/$23.25M (2007-09)
*signed extension 2/06
*$3M signing bonus
*07:$4M, 08:$8M, 09:$8.25M
*full no-trade clause 2006-07
*limited no-trade clause 2008-09 (Winn may block deals to 10 clubs)
by nvsfg on Jan 16, 2008 8:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I guess you don't see my point. My point is multi-fold: getting rid of Winn benefits the Giants more - from our viewpoint - than getting rid of Roberts. One, Winn should get more in prospects. Two, we lose more salary that way. Three, it opens up RF for Schierholtz, whereas trading Roberts only gives some ABs to Fred Lewis, who I don't think deserves a chance to start over Schierholtz, and if they really wanted to play Nate in LF, they would have already. Four, our offense is messed up and poor as it is right now, Roberts at .350+ OBP is probably our best hitter in terms of getting on base and then doing something with it when he gets on, Winn is basically about average, whereas Roberts in 2005-2006 was about 30 points above average (about .360 vs. about .330 league average; Winn has basically been about 10 point above league average). Leadoff is a pretty important part of any offense and Roberts is our best leadoff guy, whereas Winn doesn't do anything particularly well so he doesn't fit in at leadoff, cleanup or 5th.
And people point to Lewis, but his MLE OBP for the past two years is .320 and .293, respectively, according to Baseball Forecaster.
Davis hit .241/.305/.241/.546 in Sept once pitchers figured him out. His MLE OBP the past two seasons are .323 and .308, respectively.
No, Aurilia and Klesko didn't force anything, if you kept up with the Bochy era in San Diego, the big thing there was that he would play Vinnie Castillo over some young stud, in spite of how poorly he was playing, so the GM got rid of Castillo to force Bochy to play the young guy.
Ortmeier hit .287/.317/.497/.814 in 2007, averaging 26 AB/HR (a 25+ HR pace if he played a full season). His OPS+ was the second highest on the team for anyone with over 12 AB. I consider that playing well.
Still, I understand it's small sampling, but what I don't understand is he gets scraped on the bottom of people's shoes, but Rajai Davis, who hit worse than Ortmeier and did no better in the minors than Ortmeier, is treated like the second coming. Same too for Lewis. And Ortmeier's OPS+ was better than the other two plus it was at an offensive position, not CF.
The three of them have very similar minor league career numbers. They all probably hit better than they are capable of in the majors, all their BABIP are much above .300. Any issue you want to point out about Ortmeier, I can probably list one for Davis and Lewis as well, none of them are perfect prospects, I've never said Ortmeier is.
However, what Ortmeier has that the others don't have, and frankly our offense don't have, is plenty of slugging. Lewis, Davis, they both have very little power, and it is basically too late for them to be developing much more power, both will be 27 next year. We need power and Ort has it, why not play him? Plus, he has base-stealing savvy, he can regularly steal over 10 bases, so he gives power and SB at 1B.
If you don't like him at 1B, then why not him playing in the OF rather than Davis or Lewis? Or at least in the same mix? No, he's the thing lower than the belly of a caterpiller, whereas Davis and Lewis should be getting starting positions.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 16, 2008 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by groug on Jan 16, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Also, it seems contradictory to favor Roberts over Winn because we need OBP (ignoring Winn's power advantage), then to favor Ortmeier over everyone else because we need power (ignoring everyone else's OBP advantage).
Also, this: "And people point to Lewis, but his MLE OBP for the past two years is .320 and .293, respectively, according to Baseball Forecaster." Yikes. Are Shandler's MLEs always so conservative? Szymborski translates Lewis's 2006 to .340, and Baseball Prospectus translates it to .357.
by Evan on Jan 17, 2008 8:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
This is not about fairness. This is about positional need.
Roberts fills a need: leadoff hitter with above average OBP (about 30 point above league position average in 2005-2006), with very good speed (and success rate) so that he can start rallies and do things on the basepaths. Someone said that Roberts can't get .350 OBP in 2008:
2005 .275/.356/.428/.784
2006 .293/.360/.392/.753
07H1 .226/.297/.337/.633 (elbow injury/recovery)
07H2 .291/.362/.388/.751
Which statline don't belong? Roberts's OBP has been basically in the .360 range the past three seasons when his elbow was healthy (he's had other health problems, alas, I think hammies, but they apparently didn't affect his OBP much, I guess the Padres were smarter with when he gets back into the lineup).
Ortmeier fills a need: we need somebody with power to drive in the runners. We got Rowand, Molina is good but not clean-up good, not even #5 good, he's better as a #6-7 hitter. Admittedly, small samples, but still he did it when he had the chance, about 26 AB/HR, why not give him a chance?
And if not now, then when would a player like that get a chance? At worse, whoever it is you think would be better, is probably still available if/when Ortmeier shows that he can't do it.
If there was a free agent 1B prospect who is similar to Dallas McPherson (I'm not aware of any other than Josh Phelps, but he's old and never done much with his chances plus just signed somewhere now), then I can see going with that prospect - since he won't cost the Giants anything - but I don't see why the Giants should trade anybody of value to get someone else's 1B failure and see if the jell-o sticks to the wall. Why not use our free jell-o, which had a good first taste, first before we buy someone else's? He actually hit when given the chance, why not give him another chance? I'm not saying he's a sure thing, but it seems like everyone wants to give Rajai Davis the starting job and he stunk up September: .241/.305/.241/.546/
Winn fills no real need: his career OBP, SLG, OPS are all about league average OPS+. He doesn't homer enough to bat in the middle of the lineup, he doesn't get on base enough to bat leadoff plus he's horrible at stealing bases. He's probably good batting 2nd, but that's ideally Frandsen's spot in the lineup I think. He also blocks our best position prospect, Nate Schierholtz, who would also help with our power outage.
And, also very importantly, he should be more valuable in terms of prospects gotten back. He really fits in well with a team that is competitive and ready to win in 2008, he is a good complementary piece for a good team. However, the Giants in 2008 will not be a good team unless all our prospects suddenly hit what the most optimistic Giants fans have been saying they could do.
As I noted, I'm just thinking what's possible with the Giants. If I could trade Roberts and Winn away and start our young prospects and let them fight it out, I would. I think 2008 should be a year we find out what our top prospects are capable of so that we know what we need to get in order to be competitive in 2009.
However, in the real world, the Giants management is talking about being competitive in 2008 so I think getting one of Roberts/Winn traded is doable, and if I had to chose between the two, I would rather keep Roberts over Winn.
And Ortmeier's not ideal for 1B, but at least he's done something in the majors and we have no one better on the team right now, whereas people would rather go and trade some of our best trading chips to get a 1B who may or may not be good, or worse, already struggled in the majors already and/or is getting close to his "Best if used by" date. I don't see how that is better than giving Ortmeier a chance.
Again, if Ort's not the one, and we should find out pretty fast, then we could still make that deal for the 1B prospect/suspect, it is not like any of those teams are giving that guy a chance either, that's why he ended up on this target list of 1B prospects.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
On positional need: A year ago, Ortmeier was an outfielder too. Is there some reason Lewis or Schierholtz or any of the others couldn't pick up a first baseman's mitt as well?
The case for Ortmeier rests on six major-league home runs. Six. As I've mentioned before, he was about the eighth- or ninth-best hitter on his AAA team last year. If we think he can be a major-league hitter, great, but let's see him prove it in the minors first.
I also expect Roberts to come back to .350 OBP territory, but he still has plenty of negatives: he gets hurt a lot, he can't hit lefties, he's not great in the field, and there's no chance at all that he develops into something better than he is today. A Lewis/Davis platoon wins on all counts, and I bet they can match his .350 OBP as well.
I'm certainly happy to trade Winn if we get something good back. Not sure how likely that is.
by Evan on Jan 22, 2008 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I was going to use your example, by comparing Kotchman vs. Dye for 2007, but Kotchman hit .372/.467 and Dye hit .317/.486, so of course Kotchman is better, he has an equivalent SLG and much better OBP. Giles is a better one to compare so I tried him.
Using the Morong data, Giles would generate just about as many runs as Dye would in the cleanup spot; Dye was about 3% better in run production from the cleanup spot. Giles, however, would be better in spots 1-3 and 5. Dye was better 6,7,8.
Of course, Dye should be better, his OPS was .803 while Giles was .777; that shows the power of OBP, particularly at the top of the lineup. However, it also shows the power of SLG in the bottom of the lineup, which is where I expect Ortmeier to bat, Lewis too, if you played him at 1B instead. We need more power in the bottom of the lineup to drive in the guys who get on base at the top.
I would be OK with Schierholtz playing 1B, particularly since he was a 3B previously, maybe the Giants could platoon him with Ortmeier at 1B so as to get them both ABs, while opening up ABs in the OF for Lewis. Lewis at 1B, I'm not sure what aptitude he would have there, but I'd be willing to give him a shot there in a platoon with Ortmeier also.
I mean, I've seen Ortmeier's minor league stats, so I know it's an uphill climb and I'm not sold on him, but the main thing is that I just want to give him a chance to show whether 2007 was a fluke or not, why not reward good play? Platooning him with someone would do that for me.
Plus, as Grant had noted in a post previously, Matt Holliday didn't show much of anything in the minors, it was certainly as good (i.e. bad) as Ortmeier's, so his 103 OPS+ first season (albeit with 400+ ABs so more substantial), much like Ortmeier's 107 OPS+ in 2007, wouldn't have convinced you to play him in the majors then and you would have put him back in the minors the next season, it seems from your logic.
I'm not saying Ortmeier will be a big success, and I'm willing to split 1B between him and Schierholtz, if you want to put Nate through another defensive change, but at what point do you say he has shown enough in the majors, even if he didn't have the greatest of minor league stats?
I've never said Roberts would be better than he is today, that's not the question I was tackling, the question is if you had to chose between Roberts and Winn, who would you pick and why?
Obviously, Winn won't be better tomorrow either, heck, I'll throw out Barry Bonds out there too, I'm sure he won't be better tomorrow either, and there are those here who still want him back. Vizquel, Molina, Durham, any pro above 30 won't be better in the future than what he is today. May I assume that your stance is that we dump everyone above 30 and just go with young players? That's what you seem to be implying.
Both Bill James and Chone's projections for Davis and Lewis have them in the low .340 OBP range, so I don't think they'll be matching Roberts approximately .360 OBP that he's done the past 2.5 seasons.
True, he don't hit lefties, neither does Lewis hit lefties and neither does Davis hit righties.
Yes, Roberts is injury prone, that's good for our prospects to get extended time to start when he's out.
That's not true about Robert's fielding in LF, he was highly ranked for fielding in LF in the stats I saw for him when he was playing LF for the Padres. CF, yet, he doesn't field well there, but Rowand's our new CF now.
So I don't agree that a Lewis/Davis platoon wins on all counts, mainly because I'm not even sure what your strategy is. If you are just looking to the future, then yes, obviously that's true as far as future development goes. It's also not realistic because the Giants are not going to do anything like that if they don't trade anyone. And if Winn is traded, meaning the Giants will start Roberts and Winn, no, a Lewis/Davis platoon does not win because I would much prefer to see Schierholtz get the nod to start.
Nate has earned a chance to start in the majors due to his minor league stats. I see placing Lewis, Davis, and Ortmeier more of a matter of giving them playing time and seeing what happens, none of them has done anything in the minors to earn starting in the majors, they are only up because we have space on the major league roster and no obvious candidate. Ortmeier has done more with his time in the majors so I prefer to give him the nod.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Lewis .234/.292/.417/.709
Orty .205/.252/.331/.583
Davis .260/.308/.371/.679
Based on these, none of them should see the majors for more than a cup of coffee. But, now that we've seen some major league performance from them, I personally prefer the guy who did more with his limited time up.
In addition, Ortmeier's overall numbers were skewed downward by him going 1 for 8 as a PH (as was Lewis, which I'll note, 1 for 6), which is a hard role, period, and particularly so for a rookie. His OPS would have been .826 overall then.
And I'm trying to work within what I think the Giants are choosing. If it were up to me, I would have Lewis/Davis/Schierholtz in the outfield (maybe even Timpner sharing time in CF because I'm not sold on Davis other than his speed; he's a Juan Pierre type I'm fearing), Ort at 1B, Frandsen at 2B, Ivan Ochoa starting at SS (his MLE was just as good as Vizquel's in 2007, and he supposedly has a good arm/defense), with 3B filled with McPherson.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 21, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I'm not saying Shandler is wrong; I have no way to know. But every other translation system I'm aware of assumes a smaller difference between AAA and the majors.
by Evan on Jan 22, 2008 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I will note one thing I can add about their methodology that possibly others don't use: age. "Another of the enhancements we made [to Bill James MLE model] is to include an adjustment for each player's age and relative level reached at that age. This serves to truly separate the prospects from the suspects." And in their Toolbox section at the front of the book, they provide the tools they use to analyze, giving you the secrets to how they do things. And there they note that players past 26 are passing their peak skill - oh, and here is where the error might be: they have Lewis as 27 in 2007, when he was only 26. Perhaps that will boost his numbers back up.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Winn vs. Roberts
by Lyle on Jan 17, 2008 9:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Winn vs. Roberts
Personally, I think Schierholtz still has things to learn in AAA, so I'd leave him there for at least a couple of months. Give Lewis and Davis more time to show they're for real.
by Evan on Jan 17, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I'm sure you know this but
>> His OPS+ was the second highest on the team for anyone with over 12 AB. I consider that playing well.
OPS+ gets extremely distorted when using it in super low sample sizes like that, it's just not useful in a 12-AB sample. So, I think its a little misleading to use that stat.
by xanthan on Jan 17, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
A couple of points.
Dave Roberts sucks. He cannot be counted on for a .350 OBP, I don't think ever. Lewis has shown just as good, if not better, ability to get on base and I trust Rajai with the same. That's the thing that gets me about Roberts. He's a complete redundancy on this team. Rajai Davis and Fred Lewis could both occupy the leadoff spot as well as Eugenio Velez. Winn, at least, is good and only really blocks Nate. I don't see why Nate couldn't take the left field spot Roberts would occupy.
Davis > Ort because Davis has shown that he has OBP skills, regardless of how well he hit. Ortmeier still has major holes in his swing and doesn't get on base at that decent of a clip. I believe in him more than I believe in Schierholtz, actually. Don't ask for solid reasoning on that point though.
a Davis/Lewis platoon would provide us with, I'd think, league average offense combination and a steady defense whereas we still don't really know what to expect out of Ortmeier. I'm fine with him at 1b to start anyways.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 17, 2008 5:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
On to happier things, like the Giants...
As I noted above, Roberts has been a .360 OBP hitter the past 3 seasons when his elbow is healthy.
And my view is that it is either Roberts or Winn - at best - that the Giants might pull the trigger on to trade, given all the talk by management about competing in 2008. Obviously I think Roberts is the best to keep for a number of reasons.
One is that Roberts fills the leadoff position and gives Davis a chance to play part-time and let us see what he got. Davis started out great, but crashed in September. His minor league stats aren't that great either. But he doesn't strike out much while walking a lot relative to strike outs, so I still would like to see him get a chance to show what he got.
Also, at some point, Roberts's wheels will either break down or need some rest, and Lewis will get a chance to play in place of Roberts. Plus if we get rid of Winn, Lewis will probably get some starts in RF as well, I don't see Schierholtz getting all the ABs because, as people have noted, he's not a finished product yet, with some holes, so I expect some up and down, thus giving Lewis time.
That's basically 1.5 OF position worth of playing time (approximately 1100 PA) for our OF prospects, plus when there is the DH, there are 9 games in 2008 (KC, CLE, OAK). Thus, if we keep Roberts, then Davis, Lewis, and Schierholtz should see significant playing time (200+ AB for Davis, Lewis, rest for Nate assuming he does OK for the most part).
If you keep Winn, then we have Rowand and Winn playing nearly 100% of the games, leaving one OF position for the prospects to show anything and mainly only 1 OF prospect get significant playing time.
In addition, Winn would net us more and better prospects than Roberts would, not many teams want a platoon player who regularly have leg problems, while most teams would love a team player like Winn who is good enough to play all three OF positions (a key skill to have in today's world of 12 man pitching staffs) and provides enough offense to not be a dead weight on the team, a complementary piece to the heavy hitters in other positions.
Lastly, from what I've heard, Nate is not the most natural RF they have ever seen but he has worked hard on learning that position. True, LF is not as demanding a defensive position as RF, so Nate should be able to handle it, but why throw him into another defensive position when he's trying to figure things out? That would just add to his learning curve. Not that RF in AT&T Mays Field isn't hard, but at least he's comfortable playing in that position.
Now, I just realized that Winn could play LF while Nate plays RF, so I guess I can't use that as an objection.
But I think the main thing is that keeping Roberts around means more playing time for Davis, Lewis, Schierholtz, while also netting us more prospects (assuming Winn would draw more interest from other teams), plus saving us $1.5M in 2008 and $1.75M in 2009, meaning more money hopefully to acquire prospects, like international prospects.
Also, new thought, Schierholtz should be able to play 1B since he once was a 3B, so maybe he sees more time at 1B if Ortmeier fails, giving more time to Davis and Lewis in RF. Win-win-win all the way around if Winn is traded.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 11:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
WTF?
Is this some kind of joke?
If so, it's in astoundingly bad taste.
by PaulThomas on Jan 17, 2008 9:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: WTF?
sorry it was offensive, but yeah it was a joke. my asian friend thought it was funny :(
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 17, 2008 5:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: WTF?
It's weird cause I don't know what you look like.
by groug on Jan 17, 2008 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: WTF?
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 17, 2008 6:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Randy Winn Career EqA - .265
EqA works like batting average in that league average is .260
EqA has the advantage of taking base running into it's calculation which should help Roberts and hurt Winn -- because he's been a poor base stealer in his career. 168 career SB against 80 CS -- but it does not consider defense in it's calculations. They both come out as the pretty much the same player by EqA.
At least in 2007, defensively, Roberts and Winn were at opposite ends of the spectrum. Roberts was obviously very poor in CF while Winn was one of the better defenders in the NL for RF's.
I'd agree with OGC and say that Winn is a little better than Roberts because of his superior defense, but he doesn't blow him out of the water IMO. I'd love to see both Roberts AND Winn moved so that a combination of Lewis, Schierholtz, and Davis could play the remaining 2 positions but we all know that'll never happen.
I will say that I think OGC's point of "teaching the younger guys how to steal" is a little nebulous. We've all heard that same type of reasoning for the vets before, how Morris was going to mentor the youngsters, etc, etc. I just have a hard time buying it and I generally chalk it up to PR fluff or the love affair with intangibles that seems to thrive in baseball.
I don't mind Roberts if he can keep his OBP around .350 or better but you can't deny that on a team like the Giants, he's not really a key component. Which isn't saying much because most of the players on our offense aren't key components but I'd rather see a younger player like Lewis or Schierholtz start in LF in '08.
by xanthan on Jan 16, 2008 6:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 16, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
by chefasaurus on Jan 16, 2008 11:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
The problem comes that Sabean doesn't really want to get rid of Roberts, or the other veterans. He's looking to trade them & their contracts for something useful & that's just not going to happen. To get rid of them we need to eat some money and i just don't think Sabean is interested in doing that. They are sunk costs & i'd much rather us pay Roberts $6M to play elsewhere, get something in return & let others have the at-bats than i would pay him $6M to be our LF.
Roberts value is hurt by his CF defense, Roberts as a good fielding CF would be quite useful to lots of teams, but as a LF nobody has much interest. With players like Lofton available still, i don't see the logic in a team trading for Roberts.
by GiantFan on Jan 16, 2008 4:02 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
Now I will be content with losing Durham (literally losing him... like in the woods somewhere) and allowing Frandsen to showcase what he can do, giving up Roberts for anything and trading a sub-Sanchez type player/players for a risky first baseman (like Johnson or Sexson). That's it. That's all I want. I'm fine with keeping Aurilia because of his versatility. I'm fine with going to battle with our current bullpen. I'm even fine with (gulp) signing Feliz to a one-year deal as it appears all of our options now involve giving something up for someone who isn't a significant upgrade.
by saveuszito on Jan 16, 2008 7:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Prestige
I have completely lost every ounce of faith and hope in this team. I do not believe Sabean will ever make a winning team. (Am I the last sane person who was holding out hope for this?)
At least now there will be no disappointment.
by thehavenot on Jan 16, 2008 11:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
WeHaveNotMuch
Ah, but soon it will be Spring....when the acrid smell of burning Giant hopes and corpses fill our bleeding nostrils...
by Moggeee on Jan 20, 2008 12:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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