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The Prestige

A progression of offseason hopes:

  • October 30 - Trade Noah Lowry for a 23-year-old future All Star first baseman and two starting shortstops. Then let the shortstops battle it out in the spring.
  • November 17 - Trade Jonathan Sanchez for a young corner infielder, but only if it's a sensible trade.
  • November 20 - Put the Lincecum down, and step away from the phone. Hands where I can see them.
  • December 13 - Do something. Anything. Freakin' dying of boredom here.
  • December 18 - Wait, I take that back. Don't sign anymore center fielders. Please.
  • January 15 - Make Dave Roberts disappear.
To be fair, the Roberts-be-gone sentiment isn't really new, but it wasn't the focus at any point during  the winter months. Now we know this offense is going to be awful. Giants fans didn't hope for a Moneyball offense, but we maybe had our eye on a Powerball offense. Odds of winning: 1 in 146,107,962, but danged if that "1" didn't seem like a sweet dream. That's where we were right after the World Series. Now we're holding the Powerball ticket in our hands, feeling stupid for even hoping for that 1 in 146,107,962 miracle. If Sabes just traded this guy for Ben Zobrist, and that guy for Steven Pearce, and the other fella for Edwin Encarncion, and maybe Nate Schierholtz busts out, and.... Nope. Forget it. It didn't happen. It was unrealistic on several levels, and, heck, it isn't like those players would have comprised a juggernaut.

So now we're left with this last hope: Trade Dave Roberts, eat $10M of the remaining $13M of his contract, and start either Nate Schierholtz or a Rajai Davis/Fred Lewis tandem in left. Please. It'd be a $10M payment towards an installment plan of interesting. The Giants aren't going to contend. So, please, just let us watch young players who might contribute to a contending team of the future. Let us form opinions on these young players. Let us have hopes for them. If they flop, let us realize that we need different young players. Please. Throw a bone to the nerds who are on a baseball site in January, and to Giants fans everywhere.

Roberts's second half (.291/.362/.388) might tempt an outfielder-starved team. I received an e-mail with a fourth-hand rumor that the Padres might be interested. At this point, I'll take any rumor like that I can get. The Red Sox have an opening for their fifth outfielder's slot, and Roberts could rent a little condo on Dave Roberts Way in Boston. If not the Red Sox, then someone will want a free Dave Roberts. Well, Dave Roberts would be free. Then the other team will receive a new veteran every month for just $3M plus shipping. They can cancel at any time, but maybe they'll forget and wake up in July to a team with Roberts, Rich Aurilia, and Ray Durham. We can only hope.

I'm resigned to watching either Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum in a total of 40% of the games this year, and, really, that's a hell of a consolation prize. Most really awful teams don't have anyone worth watching, so the Giants are ahead of the curve. By donating Dave Roberts to the Salvation Army of MLB, the Giants could give us another player or two or three worth watching. Having one of the team's under-30 outfielders in the starting lineup would be the most satisfying part of the offseason.

Please?

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Re: The Prestige
Yeah, I totally agree. Roberts isn't a horrible player, but it'd be really depressing if we go into 2008 with him in the starting lineup and Schierholtz/Davis/Lewis on the bench or in Fresno. They really need to dump him for whatever they can get. It'd be an absolute joke for this team to go into next year without a single lineup spot reserved for a younger hitter who still has some modicum of upside.

So yeah, trade Roberts. Or at least be willing to make him the team's fourth/fifth outfielder (lol that would never happen.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jan 15, 2008 11:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
How about we institute the Veteran Of The Month Club? For a small fee (which we'll pay), the selected team gets a different veteran each month ABSOLUTTELY FREE. Each veteran comes with a personalized glove, and is guaranteed to ooze savvy for the rest of the season.

Grant, if this is the Prestige, did I miss the Pledge and the Turn already? And I certainly hope you aren't killing a doppelganger with every diary you start. Ick.

The SF Giants: we're not much, but you should check out our team in Augusta!

by Lyle on Jan 16, 2008 6:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
SPOILER!

Weird, this is like the 3rd time we've had a Prestige Spoiler in the last year...

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM! / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 12:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Soylent Green is PEOPLE!
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Jan 18, 2008 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
God dammit!!!

Well, I guess THAT'S coming off the queue....

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM! / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Jan 20, 2008 1:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Yup. Of course, it won't happen because he's a veteran, and Sabean's an idiot.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Jan 15, 2008 11:48 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Silver lining:  this team will be so horrid that Sabean will likely lose his job.  

Or get a two-year extension.  

In which case it wouldn't really be a silver lining but more like a silver kick to my balls.

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Jan 15, 2008 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
that's pretty funny.
depressing and sad, but funny.
"cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Jan 15, 2008 6:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
"Throw a bone to the nerds who are on a baseball site in January, and to Giants fans everywhere."

Amen.

Rockies juggernaut rolls o...ver , dead. NL West TempestTeapot CASE IN POINT!

by victor frankenstein on Jan 15, 2008 7:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I actually like watching Roberts play but I'd rather see him moved to make a spot for some player development this year. This team has a serious problem with expecting young players to jump from AAA and compete without any experience in the show. Then benching or shipping them back to Fresno when they don't become studs after >100 ABs. There is no way Sabes is going to ship Roberts after just signing him. That would be an admission of defeat and as we all know Sabean's decisions are never wrong. NEVER. I'd also love to scrap half our roster but since I doubt any other MLB team wants them I guess we will just wait it out. By then we will be talking about Rowand like we do Winn and Roberts. No light at the end of this tunnel.
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Jan 15, 2008 11:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Amen brother.. Trade him for a bag of balls for all I care.

What about Velez and Burris?.. Lets give them a shot too.  

Imagine a lineup with Davis, Velez and Burris.  I'd love to see those guys go wild on the base pads.  

Hey while were at it, why don't we deal Molina.. I love the guy, but he slows down our lineup and his ability to throw runners out has declined substantially.  Plus we got two decent backups.

I hear the Reds are looking for a productive bat behind the plate.. Molina could hit 25 to 30 homers in that park.

Lets pull a billy beane here Sabes!! Do it!!

by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 11:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Chris Haft - who intially showed signs of remaining a serious and interesting journalist despite the move to sfgiants.com but sadly is becoming fluffier and fluffier - says this about Roberts in today's mailbag:

"Besides, the Giants need him in left field, since the other leading outfield candidates -- Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz -- are virtually rookies and lack a track record."

That sentence is so depressing. It exemplifies everything that is wrong with the Giants mindset.

by FavoriteSpring on Jan 15, 2008 11:55 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
HE SAYS IT LIKE THAT IS A BAD THING. DDDDDDDD:
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jan 15, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
ALSO HOW WILL THEY EVER DEVELOP A TRACK RECORD IF THEY AREN'T ALLOWED TO PLAY LASDJKAL;JEQLWNLAMCA >:(

sorry.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jan 15, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

oh Haft
Man and I once thought he was really cool.
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 15, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: oh Haft
He's a fuckn moron.  PLAY YOUNG GUYS SABEAN.. thats what we wanna see!!

by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
It exemplifies everything that is wrong with the Giants mindset.

It doesn't exemplify the Giants mindset, it is the Giants mindset. Chris Haft has spent a year now hanging around the masterminds of this organization and apparently he's been talked into their specious arguments. There's a term for this type of identifying with your captors: it's called the Stockholm Syndrome.

Lon Simmons' adopted dad.

by Kitspool on Jan 15, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I can't believe Haft would say something like that. I just can't.

I CAN'T!

by lrs77 on Jan 15, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
If I had a team that needed Dave Roberts, I'd just sign Kenny Lofton instead. I think we're stuck with Roberts on the depth chart till at least spring training.

by Evan on Jan 15, 2008 12:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I really only see two possibilities.
  1. Dave Roberts to the WhiteSox for Joe Crede without any dollars changing hands.
  2. Dave Roberts and Rich Aurilia to the Tigers for Branden Inge without any dollars changing hands.
While I think both the WhiteSox and the Tigers would do this I fear Sabean won't and will trade young talent instead holding on to his PMVs.

Is time to also reconsider Ray Durham to the Mariners for Richie Sexson and Cash to balance the contracts?  

by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2008 12:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I'd consider...

3) Dave Roberts to the Padres for three Rubio's fish tacos. Man those suckers are good; Thighler could probably handle ten or so.

Derin McMains had five fingers, but he only used three.

by oooreebay on Jan 15, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Dude ! You'd need at a couple dozen from Rubios because you would have to share :-) They've kind of gone commercial over the past couple of years, but still. Fin's would work too !

I grew up in San Diego,now I'm stuck in the desert with nary a fish taco to be found. Edible ones anyway. Mmmmmm......Rubios.

My adopted son Matt Downs. Because face it, everybody else was already taken by the time I got here.

by nvsfg on Jan 15, 2008 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Yeah, I noticed they had a Rubio's in Denver last year. The regional goodness is waning, but they make a damn fine fish taco - also the shrimp burrito is delectable.
Derin McMains had five fingers, but he only used three.

by oooreebay on Jan 16, 2008 2:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

WShat about...
Dave Roberts to Camarillo for Britney Spears and an EKG?
Rockies juggernaut rolls o...ver , dead. NL West TempestTeapot CASE IN POINT!

by victor frankenstein on Jan 15, 2008 7:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
A successful `08 Giants squad as two things to me.

1) No major injuries to Cain, Tim or Wilson. Moderate or better progression in harnessing their talent.

2)Add significant value to 4 (or more) position players under team control post Sept, `09. Significant being defined as players that  Sabean & Co. would be comfortable  handing a role to confirmed by most other teams in MLB would be willing to give a role to the same player is they had him

Is this too much to ask?

by daveinexile on Jan 15, 2008 1:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Currently Pounding Head Against Wall
This offseason may be the most depressing to date, and not because we have 49 centerfielders, but because of what we don't have and how close spring training is.

This is a year that has seen blue chip prospects change hands (i.e. Dukes, Milledge, Delmon Young, Hamilton) as well as solid young players (all of Detroit's system, most of the D'Bags) and even some vets who I would have considered taking to fill a corner (Rolen, Glaus, fuck it...even Broussard) and all of that really pisses me off.

What pisses me off more, however, is that in the Giants doing of nothing we still have Roberts, Aurilia, and Ray Ray blocking what little young in house talent we have. Schierholtz played well enough last year in limited time to earn a shot. Frandsen started slow and then hit the crap out of the ball the last month and a half. I know I'm not saying anything new, but does Brian Sabean really want an empty phonebooth that they still owe a shitload of money on? I think they might...

Furthermore, we are really getting to the end of the hot stove action and I would like to ask some questions, is Andy LaRoche at all available? Could we trade a reliever like Kline to the Astros for Darin Erstad? I think I might like Erstad, at least he could play first on a speed and defense team. I want a lot, let's make something happen... please?

lincecum, cain, lowry, sanchez for jeff kent

by lincysgiants on Jan 15, 2008 1:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Erstad?
FOOTBALL PLAYER
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 15, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
Also he's old and terrible.
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 15, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
We do need help at the CF/1B position, though.

by Evan on Jan 15, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
Old and terrible you say? Perhaps he can back up Weinke.
Derin McMains had five fingers, but he only used three.

by oooreebay on Jan 15, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
An' we gots that.
Rockies juggernaut rolls o...ver , dead. NL West TempestTeapot CASE IN POINT!

by victor frankenstein on Jan 15, 2008 7:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
I'd take Erstad at first over a 27 year old minor league outfielder. Just a suggestion, want to give up a draft pick for an old free agent? Let's say a Sean Casey or a Shawn Green?

I would like to take a flier on a guy like Shelton as much as the next guy, but be realistic... you know Sabes will sign a veteran to "push" Ortmeier. And do we want two unproven commodities at first?

I hope we find out someday that Jeff Kent did steroids

by lincysgiants on Jan 15, 2008 11:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
Darin Erstad's OPS the last 3 years:

.645, .605, .696

There is absolutely without a doubt indisputably 100% for sure in the absolute most certain way possible no reason in the world to sign him to any team at all, period, no doubt, do not think there are any positives here.  At this point a random 27 year old career minor leaguer would probably outhit him.

Darin Erstad is an awful awful awful awful baseball player.  I don't have any jokes to go here.  He's terrible.

Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 16, 2008 12:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
But jokes are your thing? Oh, god, this is almost as bad as when Chandler stopped being the guy who made jokes and started being the sappy guy in love with Monica... sure, he would still make a joke every now and then to appease the fans, but the character had been compromised forever. FOREVER! You'll never be the same, groug! Like Chandler on friends, you've just ruined this show! I won't be watching anymore and I'll only get the DVDs through season 6!
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM! / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
Contrary to this joke, in reality I only find Friends to be a mildly amusing show that had full, well rounded characters when the show began and eventually devolved into a sad charicature of itself. In the midst of the degenerative cardboard cutout years of "Phoebe is weird, Joey is stupid, Ross is psychotic, Rachel is emotional, Monica is a control freak," the character of Chandler actually bucked the trend of "human characters become one moderately amusing characteristic" and stopped being "Chandler tells jokes" in favor of "Chandler becomes a full, well rounded human character."

Where every other character became a parody of him or herself, Chandler actually became a character with depth where he had not been one before. He was, in essence, the only redeeming factor of the last 3-5 years of that show.

Also contrary to that joke, I will not buy any of the seasons of Friends, as though I find it mildly amusing, I don't make a habit of buying hundreds of hours of being occassionally entertained.

Also, the series finale was teh uberlame. Yeah, I said it.

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM! / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
You just spent, like, 10 minutes of your life talking about Friends on a Giants message board.  Has the off-season been that bad?

Yes, I guess it has.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Jan 16, 2008 11:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
If you don't make a habit of buying hundreds of hours of being occasionally entertained, then how do you explain following the Giants then?
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Jan 16, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
I watch them for free!
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM! / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
But...I get celebrities to come hang out with me in season 7.  Don't you like celebrities?  I think I heard that Brad Pitt shows up at some point.  Don't you like Brad Pitt?  Or are you a communist?

Besides, everyone knows I'm just coasting off my earlier success.  I haven't made any good jokes since early 2006, and even that one was an accident.

Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 16, 2008 1:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
Darin Erstad is going to make the All-Star team this year just to spite you. Mark my words.

by Evan on Jan 16, 2008 7:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Erstad?
I considered that while I was writing it, but I figured that the Fire Joe Morgan posts about how this is the most utterly insane thing to ever happen in the history of time would be worth my being wrong.
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 16, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Currently Pounding Head Against Wall
Erstad has been worth having one year out of the last 7. Besides, he just signed with the Astros. A bullet actually might have been dodged there...
Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Jan 15, 2008 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
i wonder if sabean jumps on here sometimes to see the scuttlebutt....nah, he couldnt, otherwise wed all be dead in a river somewhere. still, wouldnt it be nice to kidnap him and force him to read all the suggestions? i wonder if it would spurn his last unfired synapse into atomic reaction
i feel like its the day before xmas, im on the gottschalks santas lap, hes smelling of wild turkey and garlic, and he isnt listening to a thing im asking for. im from a poor family so i know not to ask for too much, and hes ignoring me anyway. i dont want a toy train santa, ive had a toy train. it cant hit curveballs, santa. i want a nintendo...its older and may be broken and everyone else has playstations and xboxes, but it still might be good for some fun. and it sure as hell is an upgrade from the same old toy train and socks ive been getting the last few years. hey santa, go to ebay and get me that nintendo cheap!
thank god the patriots dont have the giants' first round pick too

by son of riles on Jan 15, 2008 1:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I find posting while wearing a foil hat  helps prevent unwanted "swimming lessons". At least it has worked so far...

by daveinexile on Jan 15, 2008 1:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Flew through Chicago the other day and local newspapers report the Cubs could use a 4/5 OF with speed. They have some interesting corner prospects, well better then ours, and they're blocked by an All Star 3rd basemen and a number 1 prospect, Roberts sure fits their needs and if we eat salary they may give up someone who's blocked anyway. What-ya-think about their prospects?

by Giant Escape on Jan 15, 2008 2:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Yeah, I heard something about this too, but I'm pretty sure they specified that they want a RH-hitter, since Pie and Fukudome are lefties.

by BigO on Jan 15, 2008 8:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I agree. Nate needs to play. Unfortunately Sabean isn't showing that he will trade any of the old guys. The problem with that is not Brian(Brian is the problem in so many other ways though), but Bochy has a habit of favoring veterans over young players, he was practically ran out of San Diego because of it. So If Brian doesn't rid us of, Durham, Aurilia and Roberts, sadly we are going to watch a lot of them this season.
Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Jan 15, 2008 2:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Look at it this way, the more we suck this year, the better the odds Sabean gets run out of town.... finally.

by ResDog on Jan 15, 2008 2:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I'm pretty sure the last time we sucked, he got signed to a two-year extension.
Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 15, 2008 11:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I'm very sure. It keeps me up at night.

by KCDrummer82 on Jan 16, 2008 12:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
But isn't that what we have been saying for the last 3 years?
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Jan 16, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I'm in agreement, and have been for some time. Probably since about June. These kids need AB's, and a solid year from Roberts is going to give us marginal gain this year, and nothing for the future.

I'd also like to see Winn gone. One position isn't enough to get all these kids into games. And his value is about as strong as its going to be. And I think Lewis could be a comparable player, based on his MiLB numbers and what little he's done in the bigs.

Schierholtz, Davis and Lewis NEED TO PLAY NOW. Velez and Ortmeier need looks as well. Rebuilding teams are supposed to play their young players.

Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Jan 15, 2008 3:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
You forget: the Giants aren't rebuilding...

Rebuilding teams do things like "trade veterans for prospects." Which would apparently, if you ask Sabean, cause all their fans to go away, or become A's fans, or something.

It's utterly ridiculous-- in a year in which Oakland managed to turn JASON KENDALL AND MARK KOTSAY (combined VORP last season: -23 runs) into two promising relief pitchers, a backup catcher and a potential fifth starter, the Giants have done NOTHING to try to get any value out of the sub-zero VORP guys on their roster.

Oakland's gotten rid of every negative-VORP player from last season except for the pitchers and Bobby Crosby. The only move the Giants have made with their FOUR sub-zero VORP guys (Durham, Feliz, Aurilia and Vizquel) has been to re-sign one and try to re-sign a second.

by PaulThomas on Jan 15, 2008 5:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Its only a matter of time..

Roberts has never been durable.  He'll give Davis and Lewis their share of ABs all year.

Winn, Molina, Vizquel could very possibly have solid years and be a trading chip for a prospect in August Giving more ABs to Velez, Frandsen, Lewis, Scherholtz and Davis.

Lowry and Sanchez might have solid Spring trainings that increase their trade values.  Especially if Lowry can prove to be healthy.

Once we see what kind of talent these kids have, we'll know what we need from the free agent pool in '09 and if its worth trading Linccumm or Cain.  They'll be worth twice as much next year - think Bedard.

by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 4:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I hope we can find a way around ever having to trade Cain or Lincecum. Hopefully Lowry, Misch, Sanchez, Hennesy and company will be able to fetch us some promising prospects come the trade deadline. THEN, hopefully Sabes gets canned and a new GM comes in and makes some nice pickups off the FA market.

As for the kids getting playing time, it's true-- all the veterans will have significant time on the DL, thus giving the kids a chance to play. HOWEVER, considering the need is to focus on THE FUTURE with this team, we shouldn't have to wait for old man Roberts to bust his hip, or crotchety Durham to pull a hammy in order to see the kids get their due time. They should be the starters and the veterans should be coming off the bench as pinch-hitters and substitutes.

Oh well. C'est la fuck it.

by lrs77 on Jan 15, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
True.. Well looks like I'll have to kneecap Durham when hes drinking hes sorrows away at Momos.

But think of the trade value Linccumm and Cain will have next off season.  Unless they get hurt (knock on wood!!)  these guys are gonna throw 200 or close to 200 innings and strike outs regardless of their W-L records.  

We may be able to pick up a handful of tier 1 position prospects and a quality arm in return.  Not to mention, holding onto Sanchez and Lowry would help us maintain depth in the rotation.

The free agent pool doesn't look great next year, but we could consider guys like Furcal and Texeria.  Or if Wilson doesnt pan out, we could sign Nathan.

by justinohan on Jan 15, 2008 4:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re:Winn, Molina and Vizquel having solid years...
...would mean Sabean still thinks they're "in the hunt" in July.  It's  a lose-lose situation.  

by chefasaurus on Jan 15, 2008 5:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
That's fine, but then we have wasted half a year that could have been spent developing the new core of our team. Not to mention, which one of the vets that you mentioned spent significant time on the DL last season? What makes you think they will start now?

by KCDrummer82 on Jan 16, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Brain Sabean, Steroids
It seems Sabean could be punished for this supposed knowledge of Bonds' steroid use.  Wow.  This would be taking it to another level!

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/15/giants-gm-brian-sabean-could-be-in-hot-water/

by ET90210 on Jan 15, 2008 8:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I still don't understand all the hate on Roberts.  He's a total speed guy that our speed guys can learn from because not only is he fast but he's also successful and is a good leadoff guy.  And that second half stats is basically what he hit in 2005-2006 when he played more games and his elbow was healthy, high average, high OBP.

Meanwhile, we dodged a 2006 bullet when Winn returned to his ordinary, average batting line in 2007 (and people were bemoaning Winn and his contract at that time, you know who you are), and nobody thinks anything of keeping him around and tempt the same fates that brought us 2006.  And he's horrible stealing bases.

People tout his RF play, but Roberts was an excellent defensive LF when he was at SanD.

Keeping Roberts around would mean Davis gets extended play in LF and Schierholtz gets to start in RF, or at least share it with Lewis.  Keeping Winn around instead means platooning Lewis/Davis in LF instead of starting Schierholtz (people seem to forget that he's not a natural OF and haven't played LF, he's barely learned RF).  Schierholtz has performed better than any of our position prospects, if anyone deserves a chance to start, it is he.

There's nothing really extraordinary about Winn in any way, which is not a damning thing, you need players like him, but still, he's average;  probably his defense is the only thing above average, but offensively he's average or worse in all the categories.  

Roberts, at least, is above average in getting on base, a good thing to have when he is the lead-off guy, above average in steals, above average in stealing percentage (Winn is up to 50% CS now if I recall right), and above average in defense in LF.  In addition, he costs us $6.5M per season while Winn is costing us $8M.  And if he gets injured, our young players will get to play, whereas Winn plays 150+ games a year.

Lastly, I would think Winn would get us a better prospect in return than would Roberts, for mainly the reasons everyone seems to love Winn for.

Meanwhile, everyone loves Davis but what has he done in the minors?  He's shown off 4th OF potential, and if you look past his shiny first month with us, in Sept he hit an ugly .241/.305/.241/.546.

People like to roast Bochy for playing vets and not young players, but who was playing a lot in Aug/Sept?  Frandsen and Ortmeier.  They were basically our regular right side of the infield during that time.  And they played well during that time.  In fact, Ortmeier played well during the two extended stints he was up in the majors in 2007.

Yet Ortmeier, people scoff at giving him a shot, but bemoan to the seven seas why, why, why don't the Giants give Davis, who was stone cold in Sept after pitchers figured him out, a chance to play?  Plus, Davis, being another young'un, played extensively in August when he was playing well.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 15, 2008 10:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Can't disagree there OGC. What I see is that Roberts is blocking a Lewis/Rajai platoon, while Winn is blocking Nate. The signing of Rowand pretty much ended any possibility of Nate starting. Sabean is probably not gonna trade Roberts or Winn because he views Winn as the #3 hitter and Roberts as the established leadoff hitter.  

So as the team currently stands, I'm afraid the best thing for Nate is to just flat out rake at AAA. Freddie becomes the 5th outfielder.

That's why something like a Fred Lewis and a low level pitching prospect for Joe Crede makes sense to me, since someone like Ortmeir can easily fill that 5th outfielder role.  

Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance

by tellusfrank on Jan 15, 2008 11:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
The problem with this argument is that it is along the pattern of "look, player X is almost as bad as player Y.  Why aren't we talking more about trading Player Y?"

Unfortunately, this isn't true.  Randy Winn consistently outperforms Dave Roberts in that he hits for a much higher slugging and adds at least some HRs to the team total.  Also, RF defense > LF defense, especially at Mays Field.  I don't think Randy is all that spectacular, but he is much much better than Dave Roberts.

One point that can't be stressed enough is the overmphasis and overvaluing of speed in MLB.  SB do not add very much to the total offensive output of a player and don't increase his actual value by much.  Speed is what leads people to pay 4yr/44mil to Juan Pierre or 2/12 to Dave Roberts.

In addition, Randy Winn is a local boy who has a full no-trade clause in his contract and likely wouldn't be a fan of moving.

Lastly, Dave Roberts is from Japan and i still don't trust asians, ever since Pearl Harbor.

As far as the young'uns go, Rajai Davis showed, in the short time given, That he halls all the skills  (speed) and more (defense, high OBP, even better speed, ability to hit doubles).  He also plays for 1/18 what Davey boy plays for.  

I think Aurilia and Klesko hitting a combined OPS+ of like 73 kind of influenced the decision to play the young guys in the infield.

Ortmeier, however, didn't do all that well.  He couldn't take a walk and struck out in 1/3 of his plate appearances.  

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 15, 2008 11:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Good points all, but a small correction: I believe Winn only has a limited no-trade clause this year. The full no-trade clause didn't cover the entire length of his contract.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM! / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2008 1:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Howie is correct. 2008/2009 is a limited No Trade. From Cot's Contracts

Randy Winn of
3 years/$23.25M (2007-09)

*signed extension 2/06
*$3M signing bonus
*07:$4M, 08:$8M, 09:$8.25M
*full no-trade clause 2006-07
*limited no-trade clause 2008-09 (Winn may block deals to 10 clubs)

My adopted son Matt Downs. Because face it, everybody else was already taken by the time I got here.

by nvsfg on Jan 16, 2008 8:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Well, I'm Asian and I'm American and I'm proud.  And I can tell you about how the Japanese forced my family out of their home in China and my father was forced to steal into his own home, at the risk of death, to get food for his family.

I guess you don't see my point.  My point is multi-fold:  getting rid of Winn benefits the Giants more - from our viewpoint - than getting rid of Roberts.  One, Winn should get more in prospects.  Two, we lose more salary that way.  Three, it opens up RF for Schierholtz, whereas trading Roberts only gives some ABs to Fred Lewis, who I don't think deserves a chance to start over Schierholtz, and if they really wanted to play Nate in LF, they would have already.  Four, our offense is messed up and poor as it is right now, Roberts at .350+ OBP is probably our best hitter in terms of getting on base and then doing something with it when he gets on, Winn is basically about average, whereas Roberts in 2005-2006 was about 30 points above average (about .360 vs. about .330 league average; Winn has basically been about 10 point above league average).  Leadoff is a pretty important part of any offense and Roberts is our best leadoff guy, whereas Winn doesn't do anything particularly well so he doesn't fit in at leadoff, cleanup or 5th.

And people point to Lewis, but his MLE OBP for the past two years is .320 and .293, respectively, according to Baseball Forecaster.

Davis hit .241/.305/.241/.546 in Sept once pitchers figured him out.  His MLE OBP the past two seasons are .323 and .308, respectively.

No, Aurilia and Klesko didn't force anything, if you kept up with the Bochy era in San Diego, the big thing there was that he would play Vinnie Castillo over some young stud, in spite of how poorly he was playing, so the GM got rid of Castillo to force Bochy to play the young guy.

Ortmeier hit .287/.317/.497/.814 in 2007, averaging 26 AB/HR (a 25+ HR pace if he played a full season).  His OPS+ was the second highest on the team for anyone with over 12 AB.  I consider that playing well.  

Still, I understand it's small sampling, but what I don't understand is he gets scraped on the bottom of people's shoes, but Rajai Davis, who hit worse than Ortmeier and did no better in the minors than Ortmeier, is treated like the second coming.  Same too for Lewis.  And Ortmeier's OPS+ was better than the other two plus it was at an offensive position, not CF.

The three of them have very similar minor league career numbers.  They all probably hit better than they are capable of in the majors, all their BABIP are much above .300.  Any issue you want to point out about Ortmeier, I can probably list one for Davis and Lewis as well, none of them are perfect prospects, I've never said Ortmeier is.

However, what Ortmeier has that the others don't have, and frankly our offense don't have, is plenty of slugging.  Lewis, Davis, they both have very little power, and it is basically too late for them to be developing much more power, both will be 27 next year.  We need power and Ort has it, why not play him?  Plus, he has base-stealing savvy, he can regularly steal over 10 bases, so he gives power and SB at 1B.

If you don't like him at 1B, then why not him playing in the OF rather than Davis or Lewis?  Or at least in the same mix?  No, he's the thing lower than the belly of a caterpiller, whereas Davis and Lewis should be getting starting positions.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 16, 2008 9:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
What were Ort's MLEs the last couple years in the minors?  You don't get to bring those up for some players and not others.
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 16, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Exactly. Lewis's major-league performance has been just as good as Ortmeier's and his minor-league performance has been much better, so why is Lewis the one getting squeezed out of the playing rotation?

Also, it seems contradictory to favor Roberts over Winn because we need OBP (ignoring Winn's power advantage), then to favor Ortmeier over everyone else because we need power (ignoring everyone else's OBP advantage).

Also, this: "And people point to Lewis, but his MLE OBP for the past two years is .320 and .293, respectively, according to Baseball Forecaster." Yikes. Are Shandler's MLEs always so conservative? Szymborski translates Lewis's 2006 to .340, and Baseball Prospectus translates it to .357.

by Evan on Jan 17, 2008 8:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
One thing is we have an outfield full of CF, as Grant's great mocking post about it after the Rowand signing attests to.  We have no 1B unless you want to try Lance Niekro again or a failed AAAA hitter like McClain.

This is not about fairness.  This is about positional need.

Roberts fills a need:  leadoff hitter with above average OBP (about 30 point above league position average in 2005-2006), with very good speed (and success rate) so that he can start rallies and do things on the basepaths.  Someone said that Roberts can't get .350 OBP in 2008:

2005  .275/.356/.428/.784
2006  .293/.360/.392/.753
07H1  .226/.297/.337/.633 (elbow injury/recovery)
07H2  .291/.362/.388/.751

Which statline don't belong?  Roberts's OBP has been basically in the .360 range the past three seasons when his elbow was healthy (he's had other health problems, alas, I think hammies, but they apparently didn't affect his OBP much, I guess the Padres were smarter with when he gets back into the lineup).

Ortmeier fills a need:  we need somebody with power to drive in the runners.  We got Rowand, Molina is good but not clean-up good, not even #5 good, he's better as a #6-7 hitter.  Admittedly, small samples, but still he did it when he had the chance, about 26 AB/HR, why not give him a chance?  

And if not now, then when would a player like that get a chance?  At worse, whoever it is you think would be better, is probably still available if/when Ortmeier shows that he can't do it.  

If there was a free agent 1B prospect who is similar to Dallas McPherson (I'm not aware of any other than Josh Phelps, but he's old and never done much with his chances plus just signed somewhere now), then I can see going with that prospect - since he won't cost the Giants anything - but I don't see why the Giants should trade anybody of value to get someone else's 1B failure and see if the jell-o sticks to the wall.  Why not use our free jell-o, which had a good first taste, first before we buy someone else's?  He actually hit when given the chance, why not give him another chance?  I'm not saying he's a sure thing, but it seems like everyone wants to give Rajai Davis the starting job and he stunk up September:  .241/.305/.241/.546/

Winn fills no real need:  his career OBP, SLG, OPS are all about league average OPS+.  He doesn't homer enough to bat in the middle of the lineup, he doesn't get on base enough to bat leadoff plus he's horrible at stealing bases.  He's probably good batting 2nd, but that's ideally Frandsen's spot in the lineup I think.  He also blocks our best position prospect, Nate Schierholtz, who would also help with our power outage.  

And, also very importantly, he should be more valuable in terms of prospects gotten back.  He really fits in well with a team that is competitive and ready to win in 2008, he is a good complementary piece for a good team.  However, the Giants in 2008 will not be a good team unless all our prospects suddenly hit what the most optimistic Giants fans have been saying they could do.

As I noted, I'm just thinking what's possible with the Giants.  If I could trade Roberts and Winn away and start our young prospects and let them fight it out, I would.  I think 2008 should be a year we find out what our top prospects are capable of so that we know what we need to get in order to be competitive in 2009.

However, in the real world, the Giants management is talking about being competitive in 2008 so I think getting one of Roberts/Winn traded is doable, and if I had to chose between the two, I would rather keep Roberts over Winn.

And Ortmeier's not ideal for 1B, but at least he's done something in the majors and we have no one better on the team right now, whereas people would rather go and trade some of our best trading chips to get a 1B who may or may not be good, or worse, already struggled in the majors already and/or is getting close to his "Best if used by" date.  I don't see how that is better than giving Ortmeier a chance.

Again, if Ort's not the one, and we should find out pretty fast, then we could still make that deal for the 1B prospect/suspect, it is not like any of those teams are giving that guy a chance either, that's why he ended up on this target list of 1B prospects.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 10:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Do we really need to worry about finding certain types of hitters to fill certain roles in the lineup? I don't think it matters much. If your cleanup hitter is a low-power high-OBP guy -- a Casey Kotchman, Brian Giles type -- you're going to score more runs than if he's a low-OBP slugger along the lines of Jermaine Dye (2007) or Adrian Beltre. Or so the simulations tell us.

On positional need: A year ago, Ortmeier was an outfielder too. Is there some reason Lewis or Schierholtz or any of the others couldn't pick up a first baseman's mitt as well?

The case for Ortmeier rests on six major-league home runs. Six. As I've mentioned before, he was about the eighth- or ninth-best hitter on his AAA team last year. If we think he can be a major-league hitter, great, but let's see him prove it in the minors first.

I also expect Roberts to come back to .350 OBP territory, but he still has plenty of negatives: he gets hurt a lot, he can't hit lefties, he's not great in the field, and there's no chance at all that he develops into something better than he is today. A Lewis/Davis platoon wins on all counts, and I bet they can match his .350 OBP as well.

I'm certainly happy to trade Winn if we get something good back.  Not sure how likely that is.

by Evan on Jan 22, 2008 11:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I've not seen simulations state that.  Using the Cyril Morong data points on lineup position offensive value, a cleanup hitter gains much more as a slugger than a OBP hitter, as the coefficients are just about equal, whereas a top power hitter would provide much more value since OBP caps out for most hitters around .400 whereas top power hitters get SLG of .450 and above:  .400 OBP =~ .450 SLG and .350 OBP =~ .400 SLG.  And .400 SLG is not much, probably much under average, while .350 OBP is better than average.

I was going to use your example, by comparing Kotchman vs. Dye for 2007, but Kotchman hit .372/.467 and Dye hit .317/.486, so of course Kotchman is better, he has an equivalent SLG and much better OBP.  Giles is a better one to compare so I tried him.

Using the Morong data, Giles would generate just about as many runs as Dye would in the cleanup spot; Dye was about 3% better in run production from the cleanup spot.  Giles, however, would be better in spots 1-3 and 5.  Dye was better 6,7,8.  

Of course, Dye should be better, his OPS was .803 while Giles was .777;  that shows the power of OBP, particularly at the top of the lineup.  However, it also shows the power of SLG in the bottom of the lineup, which is where I expect Ortmeier to bat, Lewis too, if you played him at 1B instead.  We need more power in the bottom of the lineup to drive in the guys who get on base at the top.

I would be OK with Schierholtz playing 1B, particularly since he was a 3B previously, maybe the Giants could platoon him with Ortmeier at 1B so as to get them both ABs, while opening up ABs in the OF for Lewis.  Lewis at 1B, I'm not sure what aptitude he would have there, but I'd be willing to give him a shot there in a platoon with Ortmeier also.

I mean, I've seen Ortmeier's minor league stats, so I know it's an uphill climb and I'm not sold on him, but the main thing is that I just want to give him a chance to show whether 2007 was a fluke or not, why not reward good play?  Platooning him with someone would do that for me.

Plus, as Grant had noted in a post previously, Matt Holliday didn't show much of anything in the minors, it was certainly as good (i.e. bad) as Ortmeier's, so his 103 OPS+ first season (albeit with 400+ ABs so more substantial), much like Ortmeier's 107 OPS+ in 2007, wouldn't have convinced you to play him in the majors then and you would have put him back in the minors the next season, it seems from your logic.

I'm not saying Ortmeier will be a big success, and I'm willing to split 1B between him and Schierholtz, if you want to put Nate through another defensive change, but at what point do you say he has shown enough in the majors, even if he didn't have the greatest of minor league stats?

I've never said Roberts would be better than he is today, that's not the question I was tackling, the question is if you had to chose between Roberts and Winn, who would you pick and why?  

Obviously, Winn won't be better tomorrow either, heck, I'll throw out Barry Bonds out there too, I'm sure he won't be better tomorrow either, and there are those here who still want him back.  Vizquel, Molina, Durham, any pro above 30 won't be better in the future than what he is today.  May I assume that your stance is that we dump everyone above 30 and just go with young players?  That's what you seem to be implying.

Both Bill James and Chone's projections for Davis and Lewis have them in the low .340 OBP range, so I don't think they'll be matching Roberts approximately .360 OBP that he's done the past 2.5 seasons.

True, he don't hit lefties, neither does Lewis hit lefties and neither does Davis hit righties.

Yes, Roberts is injury prone, that's good for our prospects to get extended time to start when he's out.

That's not true about Robert's fielding in LF, he was highly ranked for fielding in LF in the stats I saw for him when he was playing LF for the Padres.  CF, yet, he doesn't field well there, but Rowand's our new CF now.

So I don't agree that a Lewis/Davis platoon wins on all counts, mainly because I'm not even sure what your strategy is.  If you are just looking to the future, then yes, obviously that's true as far as future development goes.  It's also not realistic because the Giants are not going to do anything like that if they don't trade anyone.  And if Winn is traded, meaning the Giants will start Roberts and Winn, no, a Lewis/Davis platoon does not win because I would much prefer to see Schierholtz get the nod to start.

Nate has earned a chance to start in the majors due to his minor league stats. I see placing Lewis, Davis, and Ortmeier more of a matter of giving them playing time and seeing what happens, none of them has done anything in the minors to earn starting in the majors, they are only up because we have space on the major league roster and no obvious candidate.  Ortmeier has done more with his time in the majors so I prefer to give him the nod.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I thought mentioning that Ortmeier's minors were bad was enough, but here's their MLE stats for 2007, all bad:

Lewis .234/.292/.417/.709
Orty  .205/.252/.331/.583
Davis .260/.308/.371/.679

Based on these, none of them should see the majors for more than a cup of coffee.  But, now that we've seen some major league performance from them, I personally prefer the guy who did more with his limited time up.

In addition, Ortmeier's overall numbers were skewed downward by him going 1 for 8 as a PH (as was Lewis, which I'll note, 1 for 6), which is a hard role, period, and particularly so for a rookie.  His OPS would have been .826 overall then.

And I'm trying to work within what I think the Giants are choosing.  If it were up to me, I would have Lewis/Davis/Schierholtz in the outfield (maybe even Timpner sharing time in CF because I'm not sold on Davis other than his speed; he's a Juan Pierre type I'm fearing), Ort at 1B, Frandsen at 2B, Ivan Ochoa starting at SS (his MLE was just as good as Vizquel's in 2007, and he supposedly has a good arm/defense), with 3B filled with McPherson.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 21, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I'll just repeat that those MLEs are much more pessimistic than those of any other system I've seen (and there are plenty of them). Lewis, for instance, hit .292/.363/.550 in AAA last year. To translate that to .234/.292/.417 is a huge discount.

I'm not saying Shandler is wrong; I have no way to know. But every other translation system I'm aware of assumes a smaller difference between AAA and the majors.

by Evan on Jan 22, 2008 11:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I have no idea which is better either, I rely on his book a lot for my fantasy league and it's handy to reach for when I need stats.

I will note one thing I can add about their methodology that possibly others don't use:  age.  "Another of the enhancements we made [to Bill James MLE model] is to include an adjustment for each player's age and relative level reached at that age.  This serves to truly separate the prospects from the suspects."  And in their Toolbox section at the front of the book, they provide the tools they use to analyze, giving you the secrets to how they do things.  And there they note that players past 26 are passing their peak skill - oh, and here is where the error might be:  they have Lewis as 27 in 2007, when he was only 26.  Perhaps that will boost his numbers back up.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Winn vs. Roberts
Martin, I agree that trading Winn would get AB's for Nate, and for that very reason I've changed my mind and am now willing to trade him. I'm not a huge Roberts fan, and I'd be happy to have both traded, but I now think Winn's departure is more necessary for the long-term. Sadly. I blame Sabean for this mess.
The SF Giants: we're not much, but you should check out our team in Augusta!

by Lyle on Jan 17, 2008 9:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Winn vs. Roberts
But if your priority is getting at-bats for Schierholtz, why does it matter who you get rid of? Just clear one or the other of the outfield corners and install Nate there. Or put him at first base.

Personally, I think Schierholtz still has things to learn in AAA, so I'd leave him there for at least a couple of months. Give Lewis and Davis more time to show they're for real.

by Evan on Jan 17, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Hey Martin,

I'm sure you know this but

>> His OPS+ was the second highest on the team for anyone with over 12 AB.  I consider that playing well.

OPS+ gets extremely distorted when using it in super low sample sizes like that, it's just not useful in a 12-AB sample. So, I think its a little misleading to use that stat.

by xanthan on Jan 17, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
OK, you went the opposite way I thought people would do, but my point is that his OPS+ was above almost all players on the team, even when you get down to the guys who only had a few ABs.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 10:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Sorry, the Pearl Harbor joke was apparently in bad taste.  I apologize, sincerely.  

A couple of points.

Dave Roberts sucks.  He cannot be counted on for a .350 OBP, I don't think ever.  Lewis has shown just as good, if not better, ability to get on base and I trust Rajai with the same.  That's the thing that gets me about Roberts.  He's a complete redundancy on this team.  Rajai Davis and Fred Lewis could both occupy the leadoff spot as well as Eugenio Velez.  Winn, at least, is good and only really blocks Nate.  I don't see why Nate couldn't take the left field spot Roberts would occupy.  

Davis > Ort because Davis has shown that he has OBP skills, regardless of how well he hit.  Ortmeier still has major holes in his swing and doesn't get on base at that decent of a clip.  I believe in him more than I believe in Schierholtz, actually.  Don't ask for solid reasoning on that point though.

a Davis/Lewis platoon would provide us with, I'd think, league average offense combination and a steady defense whereas we still don't really know what to expect out of Ortmeier.  I'm fine with him at 1b to start anyways.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 17, 2008 5:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
You seem like a nice person, apology accepted; but after reading in the 5th grade about how people like me were lynched for no reason, I feel a need to respond and make sure that doesn't happen again.

On to happier things, like the Giants...

As I noted above, Roberts has been a .360 OBP hitter the past 3 seasons when his elbow is healthy.  

And my view is that it is either Roberts or Winn - at best - that the Giants might pull the trigger on to trade, given all the talk by management about competing in 2008.  Obviously I think Roberts is the best to keep for a number of reasons.

One is that Roberts fills the leadoff position and gives Davis a chance to play part-time and let us see what he got.  Davis started out great, but crashed in September.  His minor league stats aren't that great either.  But he doesn't strike out much while walking a lot relative to strike outs, so I still would like to see him get a chance to show what he got.

Also, at some point, Roberts's wheels will either break down or need some rest, and Lewis will get a chance to play in place of Roberts.  Plus if we get rid of Winn, Lewis will probably get some starts in RF as well, I don't see Schierholtz getting all the ABs because, as people have noted, he's not a finished product yet, with some holes, so I expect some up and down, thus giving Lewis time.  

That's basically 1.5 OF position worth of playing time (approximately 1100 PA) for our OF prospects, plus when there is the DH, there are 9 games in 2008 (KC, CLE, OAK).  Thus, if we keep Roberts, then Davis, Lewis, and Schierholtz should see significant playing time (200+ AB for Davis, Lewis, rest for Nate assuming he does OK for the most part).

If you keep Winn, then we have Rowand and Winn playing nearly 100% of the games, leaving one OF position for the prospects to show anything and mainly only 1 OF prospect get significant playing time.    

In addition, Winn would net us more and better prospects than Roberts would, not many teams want a platoon player who regularly have leg problems, while most teams would love a team player like Winn who is good enough to play all three OF positions (a key skill to have in today's world of 12 man pitching staffs) and provides enough offense to not be a dead weight on the team, a complementary piece to the heavy hitters in other positions.

Lastly, from what I've heard, Nate is not the most natural RF they have ever seen but he has worked hard on learning that position.  True, LF is not as demanding a defensive position as RF, so Nate should be able to handle it, but why throw him into another defensive position when he's trying to figure things out?  That would just add to his learning curve.  Not that RF in AT&T Mays Field isn't hard, but at least he's comfortable playing in that position.

Now, I just realized that Winn could play LF while Nate plays RF, so I guess I can't use that as an objection.  

But I think the main thing is that keeping Roberts around means more playing time for Davis, Lewis, Schierholtz, while also netting us more prospects (assuming Winn would draw more interest from other teams), plus saving us $1.5M in 2008 and $1.75M in 2009, meaning more money hopefully to acquire prospects, like international prospects.

Also, new thought, Schierholtz should be able to play 1B since he once was a 3B, so maybe he sees more time at 1B if Ortmeier fails, giving more time to Davis and Lewis in RF.  Win-win-win all the way around if Winn is traded.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 22, 2008 11:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

WTF?
"Lastly, Dave Roberts is from Japan and i still don't trust asians, ever since Pearl Harbor."

Is this some kind of joke?

If so, it's in astoundingly bad taste.

by PaulThomas on Jan 17, 2008 9:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: WTF?
50 years later and we can't make jokes?

sorry it was offensive, but yeah it was a joke.  my asian friend thought it was funny :(

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 17, 2008 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: WTF?
Now I'm imagining you with a Stephen Colbert-like arm-around-an-Asian guy picture.

It's weird cause I don't know what you look like.

Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Jan 17, 2008 5:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: WTF?
cross between young Bill Murray and Jim Morrison.  +15 pounds.
Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 17, 2008 6:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: WTF?
Bill Murray was last young when bombs were dropping on Pearl Harbor.

Konichiwa.

by Moggeee on Jan 20, 2008 12:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Dave Roberts Career EqA - .266
Randy Winn Career EqA - .265

EqA works like batting average in that league average is .260

EqA has the advantage of taking base running into it's calculation which should help Roberts and hurt Winn -- because he's been a poor base stealer in his career. 168 career SB against 80 CS -- but it does not consider defense in it's calculations. They both come out as the pretty much the same player by EqA.

At least in 2007, defensively, Roberts and Winn were at opposite ends of the spectrum. Roberts was obviously very poor in CF while Winn was one of the better defenders in the NL for RF's.

I'd agree with OGC and say that Winn is a little better than Roberts because of his superior defense, but he doesn't blow him out of the water IMO. I'd love to see both Roberts AND Winn moved so that a combination of Lewis, Schierholtz, and Davis could play the remaining 2 positions but we all know that'll never happen.

I will say that I think OGC's point of "teaching the younger guys how to steal" is a little nebulous. We've all heard that same type of reasoning for the vets before, how Morris was going to mentor the youngsters, etc, etc. I just have a hard time buying it and I generally chalk it up to PR fluff or the love affair with intangibles that seems to thrive in baseball.

I don't mind Roberts if he can keep his OBP around .350 or better but you can't deny that on a team like the Giants, he's not really a key component. Which isn't saying much because most of the players on our offense aren't key components but I'd rather see a younger player like Lewis or Schierholtz start in LF in '08.

by xanthan on Jan 16, 2008 6:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Yes, I agree that much of it is normally nebulous, but Maury Wills taught Roberts all the fine points of base stealing and from my view, he has learned it well.  I don't even think it has to be overt training, it could be Roberts on the bench and Lewis or Velez or whoever, picks his brain when there's a runner on the base, or get a tip or two during spring training.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 16, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
Velez seemed to get plenty on coaching from Barry Lamar and Omar the Great.  One of my few good memories of the 2007 season was seeing Bonds and Omar on the rail whenever Velez was on base.  I

by chefasaurus on Jan 16, 2008 11:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I actually don't mind Roberts & probably am higher on him than some others, but he really does serve no purpose on this team.

The problem comes that Sabean doesn't really want to get rid of Roberts, or the other veterans. He's looking to trade them & their contracts for something useful & that's just not going to happen. To get rid of them we need to eat some money and i just don't think Sabean is interested in doing that. They are sunk costs & i'd much rather us pay Roberts $6M to play elsewhere, get something in return & let others have the at-bats than i would pay him $6M to be our LF.

Roberts value is hurt by his CF defense, Roberts as a good fielding CF would be quite useful to lots of teams, but as a LF nobody has much interest. With players like Lofton available still, i don't see the logic in a team trading for Roberts.

by GiantFan on Jan 16, 2008 4:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
I too have lowered expectations about as far as they can go. Gone are the days when I dreamed of A-Rod at third and Miguel Cabrera as a converted first-baseman with Santana taking Lincecum and Cain under his wing on our 150-win team.

Now I will be content with losing Durham (literally losing him... like in the woods somewhere) and allowing Frandsen to showcase what he can do, giving up Roberts for anything and trading a sub-Sanchez type player/players for a risky first baseman (like Johnson or Sexson). That's it. That's all I want. I'm fine with keeping Aurilia because of his versatility. I'm fine with going to battle with our current bullpen. I'm even fine with (gulp) signing Feliz to a one-year deal as it appears all of our options now involve giving something up for someone who isn't a significant upgrade.

by saveuszito on Jan 16, 2008 7:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Prestige
This off-season has made me a complete pessimist.  I am now expecting four or five years of watching complete and utter crap (save Lincecum and Cain).  Even if Sabean is let go after his two years are up, I expect him to have ruined the team to the point that nothing but the guys in the lower minors coming up in four or five years will save the franchise.  Lincecum and Cain will never pitch on a winning Giants team.  

I have completely lost every ounce of faith and hope in this team.  I do not believe Sabean will ever make a winning team.  (Am I the last sane person who was holding out hope for this?)  

At least now there will be no disappointment.  

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Jan 16, 2008 11:57 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

WeHaveNotMuch
Why so dour?

Ah, but soon it will be Spring....when the acrid smell of burning Giant hopes and corpses fill our bleeding nostrils...

by Moggeee on Jan 20, 2008 12:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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