Our Little Unit?
Dear Diary,
So I thought that right after an outing where Sanchez throws 80 pitches in three innings is the perfect time for me to make a possibly out-there comparison. Bad timing? Maybe. But here goes.
Jonathan Sanchez could be Randy Johnson.
<crickets>
I'm serious. Jonathan Sanchez, our Jonathan Sanchez, ol' number 53 himself, potentially has it in him to be Randy Johnson. Well, when I say he could be Randy Johnson I mean he could put up similar numbers, not that he could be a 6'10" white guy with a mustache and a mullet.
What's that? You think the latter is the better bet going forward?
Come on, have a little faith. Here I'll show you why I think what I think. Sanchez is 24 years old. In 48 innings in the majors this year he has a better than 9 K/9 ratio to go along with his 4.5 BB/9 ratio.
Randy Johnson made his major league debut at the age of 24 and pitched 26 innings. He then pitched 160 innings and had a BB/9 of 5.4 Even more interesting, Johnson only put up a K/9 of 7.3. Over the next three seasons, until his breakout 1993 season, he posted BB/9 of 4.9, 6.8(!) and 6.4, with K/9 of 8, 10.22 and 10.33.
You'll notice that Sanchez has both a better BB/9 and better K/9 ratios than Johnson did (Granted in a small sample size).
Here's the thing, I realize that Sanchez doesn't throw as hard as Johnson but the delivery is very similar to Johnson's delivery and the results are very similar to Johnson's early career. Will Jonathan make the breakthrough that Johnson did (at the age of 29!)? Who knows. But the potential is there.
This is why Sanchez should be in the Giants rotation next year. And this is why we should not be trading him.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Re: Our Little Unit?
Johnson threw 100 MPH or close to it. he was also really tall and his release point was much closer to the plate. He was a freak of nature.
Sanchez is a normal sized lefty with good stuff.
I think Sanchez is much more likely to be a Randy...
...
wait for it...
Myers.
by positiveuphemism on
Sep 12, 2007 10:48 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
Sanchez could be great, but he is nowhere close to Randy Johnson.
Statistics are fantastic, but sometimes an eye-ball test does the trick.
Now, if Sanchez manages to develop a plus-plus slider with excellent control and ups the MPH on his fastball to say 95-98, I say you might have something. Unfortunately, until then i'm going to have to disagree.
he does need to be in the rotation though.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Sep 12, 2007 11:21 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
It's not just that RJ is unbelievably physically gifted, it's that those gifts (his height and strength) were esaily his biggest obstacles. When he strugled it was because he didn't have control of his body, because being so much bigger than everybody else meant his mechanics had to be more precise to get the same kind of control, and because of the deeper angle on his pitches cutting from left to right, his control had to be better than everybody else to begin with to throw a convincing strike for the ump.
Sanchez doesn't something like that. He has a whole different set of problems to overcome, many of which involve the strength of his arm (in terms of injuries) and the quality of his pitches themselves more than simply "control." Johnson never really had a problem with the quality of his stuff, and until his back went out he was about a zero on the injury risk-o-meter.
I certainly do not disagree that in a best case scenario Sanchez could have results that resemble Johnson, but I would say that the two will have significantly different career paths toward those results should they happen, and that Sanchez's results would have to come out of being a much different type of pitcher than Johnson ever had to be.
There is a place where the comp is there and is accurate, but kind of only in the way that you could compare Pedro Martinez to Roger Clemens (to use an extreme example).
by howtheyscored on
Sep 13, 2007 12:37 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
Though Randy Johnson is much larger and had a harder time putting his mechanics together and getting all those arms and elbows together into repeatable patterns, Johnathan Sanchez has also struggled to control his body and has a very similar delivery at the low 3/4. His slider is different to Johnson's, yet could be a definite plus pitch with it's 3 plane movement, but he has almost no control over it.
Randy Johnson actually should have been and was considered a possible injury risk. He had terrible, awful arm action and the fact that he hadn't injured his arm is a testament to his freak-of-nature-ness. The guy's a nut.
Sanchez has to do something darastic to even come close to RJ, but he could be very very good with a couple of changes.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Sep 13, 2007 9:42 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by rxmeister on
Sep 13, 2007 4:48 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
and then this one is my favorite: "I think that the main difference between the two is that until Randy Johnson 'put it together,' he was always doing less with more than Jonathan Sanchez has ever done, and most of it has to do with his size."
so what opportunity has sanchez been given? three starts and most of the his innings have come in relief. i think the book is still out on what sanchez will do.
but i have to agree with thehavenot. i do see a little of johnson in sanchez. he has the low three-quarter release, and he comes at you from an odd angle, making the ball harder to pick up. also he is wild like johnson was when he first came up. but johnson figured out how to harness his wildness into out (see john kruk's all-star at-bat against him). no sanchez doesn't hit 100mph, but he hits 93-95, and putting that on the inside corner will make any hitters thumbs numb. also, his slider is very similar to johnson's. it is a late breaker and with enough mph difference between the fastball and slider, it is a definite stikeout pitch.
so thehavenot, is not far off in my opinion. but, sanchez needs at least 2 more years of solid starting before we can gauge anything right now. if i was to trade anyone it would be lowry. his injuries that he has been getting (and not with his arm) scares the hell out of me. especially from a pitcher who relies on junk to get someone out. if he is having arm problems and his curveball is one of his better pitches (the change-up obviously the best of his throws) then i would trade him now!!! he has had a great year on a bad team. his contract is pretty friendly and he is still very young. i think the giants could get more for lowry than they could for sanchez. lowry is a proven starter in the bigs, has a good ERA this year, and has 14 wins on a shitty team.
by Cynema the Band on
Sep 13, 2007 6:20 AM PDT
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Whoa
When I say that Johnson was doing less with more, I mean he had much better stuff than Sanchez, and was doing less with it. It had nothing to do with opportunity.
And I don't think it's much of an arguable point. On top of the fastball, Johnson always had one of the top sliders in the game, but his results didn't match that until he got his mechanical control worked out at the ripe age of 29.
Sanchez's stats actually comp pretty well against Johnson, but he's doing it without as much at his disposal. So Sanchez is doing more with what he has than Johnson was doing, but the fact remains he doesn't have as much. Also, the idea is that Johnson had more to work with to begin with, which is why his success was so remarkable once he did figure it out.
How is that possibly a stupid or pessimistic statement? I then went on to say that Sanchez does have the potential to put up similar numbers to Johnson. And I think that is remarkably optimistic, especially for a guy who voted "Trade Sanchez" in our poll a little more than a week ago. But if his results do end up resembling Johnson, it won't be because he resembles Johnson.
Then I compared Sanchez and Johnson to Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens to hyperbollically illustrate my point, which, I believe, you missed completely.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 13, 2007 8:24 AM PDT
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Re: Whoa
but the bottom line, and what this diary was started as, was a comparision between the two pitchers. and purely looking at their delivery and their electric "stuff" yes it is a fair comparison. anyone who can predict the future of sanchez and if he will turn out to be like johnson is full of crap. if you want to compare what johnson did after he got control of his stuff, then fine do it. but talk to me in 3-5 years after sanchez gains control and we'll see what numbers he can put up with the control and then we'll talk.
by Cynema the Band on
Sep 14, 2007 11:55 AM PDT
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Re: Whoa
Then, they may have similar motions, but Sanchez is smaller and has a slighter frame to begin with. The two don't have the same pitch selection, and the biggest similarity is "control issues," which would describe about 95% of 24 year old pitchers in professional ball.
I'm not saying it's a BAD comp, because the numbers are there, more or less. I'm saying it's a tough comp to uphold when you step away from those numbers because of the major differences between the two pitchers - which, largely, would be the same if you were trying to comp Johnson with anybody.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 14, 2007 12:21 PM PDT
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Re: Whoa
by Cynema the Band on
Sep 14, 2007 1:11 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Sep 13, 2007 9:07 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by rxmeister on
Sep 15, 2007 8:45 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Cynema the Band on
Sep 15, 2007 9:21 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Anticon23 on
Sep 15, 2007 11:24 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Sep 17, 2007 9:51 AM PDT
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Skinny unit
I want Sanchez to succeed as much as anyone on this site does. I think he'll be great. It's really too early to tell what he'll be, good or bad. But I think I can say the RJ comparison is a bit too pie in the sky.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Sep 13, 2007 6:47 AM PDT
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Amen, Sister
by wilriv21 on
Sep 13, 2007 7:43 AM PDT
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Re: Amen, Sister
How do they handle pitching in the Arizona Fall League? I hope Sanchez gets innings as a starter down there, but with Pereira going as well as the other possible starters on the Scottsdale club I'm not sure what chances Sanchez (or for that matter, Pereira) will get as a starter. They have AZ's Max Scherzer, Esmerling Valdez, and Greg Smith, TB's Mike Prochaska, Toronto's David Purcey (who is on the DL according to MiLB.com) and Ricky Romero. It's important for Sanchez to just get innings but I swear to Allah if the Giants continue to dick around with him I'll throw things.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Sep 13, 2007 8:22 AM PDT
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Re: Amen, Sister
by wilriv21 on
Sep 13, 2007 9:29 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by oldjacket on
Sep 13, 2007 8:17 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
Sanchez as no such advantage.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 13, 2007 8:33 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Anticon23 on
Sep 13, 2007 8:36 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
I like Sanchie as a LH Daniel Cabrera. Sanchie's only plus pitch is his fastball, which is amazingly good.
by orangeandblackattack on
Sep 13, 2007 8:49 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Sep 13, 2007 8:51 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by rxmeister on
Sep 15, 2007 8:49 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Woody Wins on
Sep 13, 2007 9:10 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Natto on
Sep 13, 2007 9:10 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by wilriv21 on
Sep 13, 2007 9:16 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by howtheyscored on
Sep 13, 2007 9:19 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?

by PacBellBoozer on
Sep 13, 2007 9:16 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Sep 13, 2007 9:22 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
For comparison, consider two hitters. One being a Matt Williams type. Big guy, big swing, kills fastballs, but can't hit an off speed pitch. You can see how after a couple of 1000 ABs he could be and A type major leaguer. However, until then most of his homeruns will be fastball mistakes. Once he proves he can make a living on off speed stuff, he will start seeing more fastballs and his homeruns could skyrocket.
Now before that point you could find another smaller guy with a smaller swing without the homerun skyrocket potential who has a similar low batting average, homeruns and strikeout.
The analogy I'm trying to make (maybe poorly) is that the second smaller guy may look similar in stats before the break out. But it is the bigger guy's size that sometimes makes his stats look worse at the beginning.
I don't want to get anyone too excited but Threets has (had) a better chance of being Johnson than Sanchez
by melottfan on
Sep 13, 2007 9:46 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Goofus on
Sep 13, 2007 10:30 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
I remember that Murph and Mac were ranking the Giants by their ability to conduct an interesting interview. Sanchez and Jeff Fassero were tied for most boring.
by oldjacket on
Sep 13, 2007 5:48 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Natto on
Sep 13, 2007 5:55 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by EliminateMe on
Sep 13, 2007 6:04 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by Goofus on
Sep 13, 2007 9:30 PM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
by oldjacket on
Sep 14, 2007 8:07 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
Oliver Perez?....yes
by Deputy Dingleberry on
Sep 14, 2007 8:33 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
I come back after my 13 hour school day (I love Thursdays) to see a chorus of "whatcha smokin'?"
Well that is fine. I meant the post to have a tad of hyperbole. I knew most wouldn't like the comparison, as it is not a perfect one.
The main thing that I wanted to take out of the Randy Johnson comparison was that it is possible for pitchers to solve control problems. What are Sanchez's two problems? He only has one good pitch and he has a control problem. Yet, he still does decent work. Now imagine if he solves those two problems. A solid number 2 you say? Well, yeah, but only because we've got Lincecum (by the way, Lincecum is Pedro Martinez) ;)
I'm a big fan of Sanchez because his problems are fixable. The other suggestions for Sanchez comps are good ones I think. But I use Johnson because he actually put it together. Whereas Cabrera and Perez have both shown flashes of brilliance but not much else. I am hoping for more consistancy from our man. Whether that happens or not I do not know. But a fan can hope.
by thehavenot on
Sep 14, 2007 9:37 AM PDT
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Re: Our Little Unit?
But there is a basic conceit about the possibility of similar results that I don't think anybody actually disagreed with, even if most took it either skeptically or as hyperbole.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 14, 2007 9:52 AM PDT
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