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Time for Cain to take a break?

by Kitspool on Jul 23, 2007 10:12 PM PDT Comment 52 comments

I didn't watch tonight's game, just caught the last few innings on radio. Matt Cain is now 3-12, just a few wins off the pace for the Cy Young that I predicted for him at the beginning of the season. (I'm really, really sorry for that. Nostradamus I am not.)

Does anyone else think it's high time for Cain to skip a start, as much for his mental health as anything else? It may not help his declining peripherals, but it might be exactly what he needs. It just seems to me like if he can salvage something from the rest of the season, have some good starts, finish strong, he'll have some confidence going into 2008. Because otherwise, his promising career could be disintegrating before our eyes, and that depresses me no end.

Consider this a cry from the heart for an Open Matt Cain Optimism Thread.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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It worked last season

Maybe a break would be good for the kid. Skip a turn and work on the side. It may be tough though since SF will be playing each day for the next month or so. Hopefully Misch or Ortiz can spot start.

by wilriv21 on Jul 23, 2007 10:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: It worked last season

Because the Giants have a day off on Monday, July 30th, they could indeed skip Matt for a few days at least if they traded Lowry after his start and inserted Russ Ortiz and/or Pat Misch into the rotation to take Noah's place.

I'm not sure if that is what they should do, but skipping Matt for a turn worked out well last season.

by sharksrog on Jul 23, 2007 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I'd definitely like to have him skip a start. Nothing seems to be going right for him right now... yeah, he's not getting any run support, but he's not pitching well either.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 10:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I think Cain needs to skip more then just one start. Matt needs to go to the bullpen and be used for two or three innings at a time 2 or three times a week until he proves that he can and will throw strikes for at least four straight outings. Matt is pitching believing he can't make any mistakes (in fear of making a single mistake) and therefore he is making a ton of mistakes.

I agree that we are talking about the potential complete colapse of a not to long ago bright future. Giants management needs to understand this risk and take the right action. To just continue to run Matt out there would be to almost guarantee that he will become just another Brett Tomko.

by giantsrainman on Jul 23, 2007 10:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

This is too apocalyptic. He's got plenty of things to work on, but remember, he's still just 22. Put it this way: if Bumgarner and Alderson have this kind of season in the big leagues in 2012, we should all be pretty happy.

by Evan on Jul 24, 2007 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

dont you ever compare matt cain to brett tomko you mother$#%&#%(#%#(^

Ahem.

I agree that he's not pitching well in his last few starts but I'm not sure anyone here can say definitively what the problem is beyond referencing a regression to expectations brought on by his high walk rate. He was, record notwithstanding, our best pitcher overall before the all-star break, and a serious mechanical change since then seems unlikely. If Cain has a psychological issue, pulling him from the rotation is probably not going to be helpful. I say let him keep pitching, working closely with Righetti and maybe some more competent coaches/assistants/teammates to keep grinding away at the control issues that have plagued him, but most of all keep the faith. We saw his, what, 7 one-hitters last year? We know what he's capable of, and this is definitely not the year to screw with a future ace's head - let alone his arm - for the sake of a few extra wins that we probably wont get anyway.

WE FIGHT WARS! WE CHEAT ON SPOUSES! WE LISTEN TO THE STEVE MILLER BAND! BUT IF WE THROW OURSELVES INTO SOMETHING GLORIOUS AS BASEBALL ALL IS FORGIVEN!" -PECOTA

by nick on Jul 24, 2007 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I'm not super worried about the declining Ks. He isn't that far off of last season's pace (about five fewer strikeouts per hundred batters faced -- definitely within the realm of sample size chicanery).

This is just a legendary run of poor run support. Legendary. Keep him in the rotation. His stuff looked good, and if the douche behind home rang up Chipper in the first inning, as he should have, Cain might have had a different night.

by Grant on Jul 23, 2007 10:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

While we could perhaps overlook Matt Cain's falloff in strikeouts, it becomes difficult to pass by his 1.65 WHIP since the end of April. That is nearly half a runner per inning more than Tim Lincecum (1.18) and more than a quarter of a runner per inning than the NL average on the season (1.38).

by sharksrog on Jul 23, 2007 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

See the chart in the bottom right here. Remember how we had those debates early in the season about whether Cain's spectacularly low BABIP represented luck or an ability? That question has been answered, as his BABIP has regressed with a vengeance.

My point is that while he does walk far too many batters, his high WHIP "since the end of April" is a sample size illusion. He's just had bad luck.

by Evan on Jul 24, 2007 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

You made a nice point with your BABIP graph. You may recall that back in April when Matt's BABIP was ridiculously low, I said that I felt that much of it was luck -- but also that he had demonstrated some ability to prevent balls in play from becoming hits (including a high pop fly rate).

I think that Matt's WHIP is SO high at 1.65 since the end of April that is isn't merely luck. If Matt were limiting hitters to the league average BABIP during that time, his WHIP would still be easily above the league average of 1.38. And even if his BABIP during that time were at the figure he hit last year (and is just over this one overall), I think his WHIP would still be a bit high.

Think about it. Since the end of April Matt has been slightly below average in strikeout rate (although also well below average in home run rate). If batters have a league-average BABIP against him, he is going to give up about an average number of hits. And since his walks are well above average, his WHIP is going to be high.

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Grant,

Yes, Cain was squeezed in CJones' 1st inning AB and yes Cain has been squeezed all year by the failure of his teammates to get him any runs. That said, Cain still pitched scared and challanged no one. He needs to sit to be taken out of the rotation and for more then just one start. Cain needs to refocus and start attacking as a pitcher instead of trying not to make any mistakes. This is not going to happen if the Giants continue running Cain out there. I think a chewing out is also in order. Cain's (woo is me body language) makes me very afraid that he is about to go Sergio Garcia on us.

by giantsrainman on Jul 23, 2007 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I'm not sure I agree with you there - 8.4 K/9 (stellar for a 21 year-old) to 6.6 K/9 (around league average) seems statistically significant to me, especially accompanied with a pretty clearly visible inability to finish off batters - they just foul his fastball off until he throws one down the heart of the plate.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Jul 23, 2007 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Here's another fun graph to shed some light on the situation. Scroll down to the second chart, and compare the vicissitudes in Cain's strikeout rate in 2006 and 2007.

Pitchers go up and down over the course of a season. I don't know whether he will have a second-half surge the way he did last year, but I don't think his current numbers are incompatible with being an 8 k/9 guy.

by Evan on Jul 24, 2007 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Now back in 2005 Matt had a LOT of good luck. His strikeout rate was even lower than this year's -- yet his ERA was something like 2.25, or just over HALF where it is now.

Without looking, I suspect Matt's strikeout chart from 2006 to 2007 looks somewhat like Noah Lowry's from 2006 to 2006. Somehow each pitcher has lost his ability to pitch strikeouts from one year to the next.

In Noah's case, I attributed at least some of that to his injury. Could it be that Matt is merely pitching with a dead arm? And that as he tries to over-throw through it, he is losing control?

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

His timing and mechanics are clearly off. It looks like he is tired and missing a couple mph on his fastball. He seems to be letter his front shoulder fly open and is trying to FORCE a faster pitch. His arm slings and he loses control like he did in the first inning today. While the zone was about the size of my cats balls(chop chop tomorrow) I still think he was far too wild. He has great stuff but he looks to be trying to make up for being tired right now. Seems like a perfect time to let him miss a start. We aren't in the hunt so it can really only help him right now. He is going to need a couple big confidence boosters before the end of the year and Matty is going to need to be healthy and feeling good to do that.

"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 11:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I'm not a mechanics expert, so I'll have to take your word for it, but if he's really tired than he absolutely should be taking some time off. I've been amazed at his health so far and there's no point in rolling the dice on a lost season.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Jul 23, 2007 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I don't know - this is really where we need to have a pitching coach figuring out what's wrong. Is it mechanical? If so, moving to the 'pen for a time might be the right solution. Is it a matter of approach? I'm sure people in the organization have to be telling him to throw strikes, right? Is he worn down? He's been very overworked in his young career, so it seems a possibility.

I don't think we're in a position to know for sure, unfortunately, but there is definitely an alarming trend. His K/9 this year is down from 8.4 to 6.6 while his BB/9 has increased from 4.1 to 4.4. Obviously control has always been an Achilles' heel but his declining ability to miss bats is really amplifying it this season.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Jul 23, 2007 11:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I asked a person who is pretty good on mechanics if he thought Matt's problems were mechanical, and he said he hadn't noticed that to be the case. He did say that he would study Matt's penultimate start, and I haven't heard anything from him. So I'm guessing he didn't find anything mechanical of substance.

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I don't know if Carlos Gomez is still reading here, but he would be a GREAT one to re-analyze Matt's present mechanics and compare them to his pre-season analysis of Matt.

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Taking a break will do nothing other than drive the kid even more crazy. He'll see that we have shit hitting, not just for his starts, but for every start. With little promise on the horizon, there's no way he doesn't have a countdown timer running until his contract is finished up and he's free to move onto a REAL major league ballclub.

Omar Vizquel to Big Sam, "Barton, Viduka, Rozenhal, Geremi, Deco even?...way to go Gaffer, keep up the great work!"

by PacBellBoozer on Jul 23, 2007 11:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

This is a lost season. It won't hurt Cain at all to rest up and take a start off, especially to save some innings on his young arm. I even wouldn't mind seeing him go on the DL with "arm soreness" just to work on mechanics and take a break for a while.

Cain seems as if he is trying to be perfect. His control isn't that good even when he is right to be super fine with his pitches, so he can't nibble and try for that perfect FB low and away. He needs to get back to pounding the zone with fastballs to get ahead in the count, and trusting that he has the stuff just to go after hitters. Solo homers won't hurt him; it's the walks that get him in trouble. Rags needs to work on that, and the best way to do it is to take the pressure of starting real games off of Cain for a while.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 23, 2007 11:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

The time is now to give him some time off. I'd hope Rags and co. would explain to him it's not a demotion, just time to get his head together and give his body a rest. They can work with him to get his stuff back on track.

Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist. Not boring: Emmanuel Burriss. Not facist: THE RETURN OF SF Dugout

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 24, 2007 6:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Even if only for the sake of his overused arm, I think he needs at least one start off. But absolutely no more than two.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Jul 24, 2007 7:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I say give him a break.

The Giants aren't contending this year and there's no reason to ride Cain. A break could do him some good and limit the total IP on his arm for this year.

The K/9 drop does worry me, I wrote about it a little this morning but, consider that Cain's K/9 is around 6.51 and Zito's is 6.0.

by xanthan on Jul 24, 2007 8:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: I say give him a break.

I forgot to include that Cain is 8th on BP's pitcher abuse points this year. He was 9th last year, could the wear and tear be catching up to Cain?

by xanthan on Jul 24, 2007 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I say give him a break.

It's sort of a vicious cycle, though, isn't it? Because some percentage of the abuse is the result of his own command issues and inability to finish batters off. Like Russ back in the day, it becomes difficult not to abuse starting pitchers who put 25-40 pitch innings on the board with regularity.

by Roger on Jul 24, 2007 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I say give him a break.

It always seems to me that a smart pitching coach would use pitch counts as a developmental tool. Tell your wild young starter that he's coming out after 100 pitches no matter what the game situation is. Won't that encourage him quit nibbling and throw strikes?

Of course, this organization seems pretty fond of nibbling, so that's not likely to happen here.

by Evan on Jul 24, 2007 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I say give him a break.

One of the frustrating aspects is that this issue of flying open with his front shoulder seems to be well-identified. Even Sabean mentioned it on one of his KNBR shows a month or so ago. Candiotti brought it up during a Cain appearance against Arizona, and IIRC, Tidrow noted it after Cain's disastrous Future's Game appearance several years ago.

Which begs the question: other than identifying this problem, what steps, exercises, mechanical changes have been taken over the last three years to correct it?

by Roger on Jul 24, 2007 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I say give him a break.

Good point Roger. Cain's shoulder was flying open again last night.

Can somebody who's more in the know with pitching mechanics explain why a pitcher would open up like that? Is it a case of overthrowing? Because last night, to me, it looks like Cain was getting pissed and just trying to throw the ball through the backstop.

I'm still split on Righetti as a pitching coach, I wonder if he's working with Cain on this?

by xanthan on Jul 24, 2007 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I say give him a break.

The only Giants starter with a good strikeout rate is Tim Lincecum, who has one of the best in the league.

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Skip him, then send him to the minors for a few weeks, then badmouth him publicly, then trade him for Latroy Hawkins.

Duh.

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Jul 24, 2007 9:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

okay, well that's very funny.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jul 24, 2007 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Maybe he just needs a little juju change, like switching his number back to 43.

Although maybe I'm only suggesting that because it would make the "Cain 43" shirt I bought back before spring training relevant again, and, of course, the $25 I spent on it.

by rocketdog on Jul 24, 2007 10:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Cain 43

c'mon, that just makes your shirt a classic.

by The Enchanter on Jul 25, 2007 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitch Count

It would seem that the Giants have done a good job of controlling Lincecum's pitch count. Even pitching a shutout, they'll pull him before he's thrown 100 pitches to avoid burning him out. I'm no pitching expert either, but that seems to be the case at least.

With Cain, it seems he's just trying to compensate for the fact that this POS offense can't score more than two runs for him, so he's thinking he has to be perfect. That's bad news. But as for the falling K/9, I remember him talking in Spring Training about trying for strikeouts less in order to keep his pitch count down, and trying to get hitters to just put the ball in play. Seems like a reasonable idea, except when you walk four batters per game at least, your pitch count is going to jump right back up there... Captain Obvious has spoken.

by JRPhillips on Jul 24, 2007 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pitch Count

The last time I looked, Matt's pitch count per inning was indeed down about a pitch per frame. It probably rose a bit his last couple of outings. But I'm pretty sure he is still below the 17+ pitches per inning he averaged last season.

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Last year's stats for Matt Cain, as of July 27th:

7-7, 112.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

This year, through July 24th:

3-12, 123 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

The WHIP is definitely up, ERA is way down and of course, the win-loss record stinks on toast, which we all agree he has minor control over.

Not sure what all this means though - he might just be a damn good second half pitcher. I'm not sure we need to get him skipping starts, unless it's done with a nod to his workload.

Don't forget, this guy is actually four months YOUNGER than Tim Lincecum. He's a work in progress, certainly, but I don't sense he's so emotionally fragile that he needs to be coddled.

by otis29 on Jul 24, 2007 12:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Yeah - I normally hate the "we aren't in a position to know because we're not INSIDE BASEBALL" argument, but in this case it kind of fits. None of us no Matt Cain personally, so it doesn't matter how much arrogant certainty we speak with (* coughgiantsrainmancough *) we're still just speculating.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Jul 24, 2007 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

To clarify, this is with regards to the speculation on his emotional health only. Statistically, we can all see where he's struggled.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Jul 24, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Yeah, I guess it is important to remember how young he is (although age isn't everything...)

I think it's just that a lot of us expected him to build off his second half last year and instead he's regressed pretty far from where he was in second half '06.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 24, 2007 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I will agree with that - his body of work in August last season showed that he can be a pretty special pitcher. You'd hope he doesn't get pigeonholed as a "second half" guy, because he seems to have the potential to be much more.

by otis29 on Jul 24, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

ok, why would you sit a pitcher, who despite some control problems recently, has battled his ass off. it ain't his fault his offense reminds me of the bad news bears where every hitter looks like the fat catcher. he needs to battle through this. i think if you take him out for a start you will hurt him worse. you'd pretty much be saying "you are the reason for not winning". let him go out there and do his job. if the offense can't score for him, then fire the hitting coach.

last night they showed that cain was second in "quality starts", meaning he has gone six innings, allowing 3 or less runs. he has done that 9 times. that is not the sign of a pitcher who needs to be put away for a start.

Paging Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard.

by Cynema the Band on Jul 24, 2007 3:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

You'd give him a start off to rest his arm and his head a little. It worked very well for him last season.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 24, 2007 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Last night was Matt's 20th start I believe. If he LED the Giants in quality starts with nine (in 19 starts and now 20), that doesn't say much for him OR the rest of the other Giants starters except Tim Lincecum.

Tim also has nine quality starts -- but out of only 14 games, not 20 as with Cain. Tim's first start wasn't a quality start, and none of his starts in his four-game problem streak were, either, but every other game he has pitched has been a quality start.

Matt's nine quality starts indicates he doesn't have quite as many wins as one would expect, but that he isn't as far over in his losses as one might assume.

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

well, let's see, bronson arroyo was leading the NL with 10 quality starts and he has around 13 loses. the only common thread is the lack of offense on both teams. how is him taking time off going to help the offense? his era has just crept over 4.00, which in prior posts subjects, pitchers with eras under 4.5 make them better than average. his is 4.02. much better than average. he has to realize that his job is to keep his team in the game. whether it is giving up 2 runs or 6 runs. he has done the first more often than he has done the last. again, he can't score runs for his team.

Paging Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard.

by Cynema the Band on Jul 25, 2007 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

No, that wasn't total quality starts, it was quality starts that ended in a loss.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 25, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

yeah, i understand that, but the fact still remains that those are quality starts. and even more so if those are only in a lose. what about his three wins? he is still pitching his ass off and even when he has control problems he still battles.

Paging Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard.

by Cynema the Band on Jul 25, 2007 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

He is pitching his ass off, but the results (in more than just W-L) have become kind of ugly since April.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 25, 2007 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

I emailed Carlos Gomez/ChadBradfordWannabe. Maybe he has some expert insight into Cain's mechanics.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 24, 2007 4:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Could you tell him to send his analysis to Dave Righetti while he's at it?

Adopted Giant: Randy Winn. Can't wait for Zito to start Opening Day '08 so I can get a leg up on my drinking.

by Punch Rockgroin on Jul 24, 2007 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Very cool, thanks. I'd be curious to hear from an expert as to whether he is having problems - I'd always heard good things about his mechanics when he was in the minor leagues.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Jul 25, 2007 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Time for Cain to take a break?

Wow, great minds think alike -- and even yours and mine. :)

by sharksrog on Jul 25, 2007 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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