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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Again....

174246766_ea2fd78204_tiny by Grant Brisbee on in News

Sweeps week is coming for McCovey Chronicles. It's been a hectic time for the whole staff. All of the suits are driving us nuts, trying to boost the site's ratings for a final push.

McCovey Chronicles Executive #1: I don't see a choice. We need to add an adorable 8-year-old boy to the cast of McCovey Chronicles. Our numbers would go off the charts. I was thinking it could be a long-lost cousin named Iggy.

McCovey Chronicles Executive #2: That's a little extreme, don't you think? I was thinking there could be a post about Noah Lowry trade speculation. That's always good for the ratings.

Exec #1: C'mon, baby, that's old hat. We've done a "what-if-Lowry's-traded"-post at least three times in the past year. The people want something new.

Exec #2: We're not getting an 8-year-old-boy. Those things are expensive. Clothes, food, kennels - it's not just a matter of hiring one and sitting back. And there's still some juice left in this Lowry thing. Let's run with that.

Exec #1: Tell you what, I'm going to go on Craigslist and check some prices, and you do what you have to do.

In the tradition of this post, this post, and this post, it's time for our monthly "Lowry? Traded?"-beating of a dead horse. The twist this time is that Lowry's value is pretty danged high. The Giants aren't going to get low-balled because Lowry has 10 wins and a 3.55 ERA. And, yeah, Billy Beane might derisively snort if those were the numbers presented to him as evidence of Lowry's worth, but not every GM is Billy Beane. Ten wins? 3.55 ERA? Shiny shiny!

What I'd want back for Lowry: Two position players with a chance to crack the 2008 starting lineup. Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement. Andy Marte and Asdrubal Cabrera. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Scott Thorman (with Klesko going the other way). These aren't exactly fair trades for Lowry; at this very second, there's a Mariners fan clutching his stomach and rolling around in pain for no apparent reason. But if you're holding on to a pitcher who is locked up for the next few years, you'd be silly to cut fair trades. "Two almost-ready and young hitters. Too much for you? We'll just move on to the next team then, `cause we really don't have to trade this guy. K.I.T. See ya next summer."

The conventional wisdom is that Matt Morris is probably the pitcher who'll be traded, with an outside shot that it could be Lowry. If you could get two position players for Lowry and one for Morris, though, would you trade 40% of the starting rotation at the same time? That's a pretty dicey proposition. Cain, Lincecum, Zito, Misch, and Ortiz or Sanchez still wouldn't be a bad collection of starters, but depth would be sacrificed for a couple of years. If one or two of those pitchers go down with an injury, you might be watching a rotation with Travis Blackley and Matt Kinney every fifth day. Kaboom.

The next wave of pitching prospects - Clayton Tanner, Ben Snyder, and Henry Sosa - are still a couple of years away, at least. It'd be a huge, huge gamble to trade both Lowry and Morris, but it isn't like any of the solutions to this roster mess come without risk. And if you trade Lowry, Morris will only buy you one more (expensive) season.  If the Giants could get back three young question marks to replace three of the exclamation-points-after-naughty-words that currently taint the lineup, it would be worth that risk.

Comment starters: Would you trade Lowry and Morris at the same time? What would it take for you now to give up the cost certainty of Noah Lowry?

Comment deadener: Could you really see Sabean build a team around three hand-picked prospects and the Fred Lewis-types already in the system, or would you expect him to trade for limited upside guys like Ben Broussard and Horacio Ramirez and fill the rest of the team by giving bloated contracts to David Eckstein, Eric Byrnes, and Mike Lowell? Yeah, me too.

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Re: Again....
Eckstein and Byrnes are quintessential Sabean guys. Scrappy! Savvy!! White!!!

I actually like Lowell. Not a good fit for the Giants, but i like him a helluva lot more than the other scrappy scrap-heapers.

Noah's value will never be higher than it is right now. Sabes needs to channel Billy Beane and trade Noah for 2 solid prospects. I'm fine sending both Lowry and Morris. Sanchez and Ortiz (shudder!) in the rotation?

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 10:33 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I actually like Lowell. Not a good fit for the Giants, but i like him a helluva lot more than the other scrappy scrap-heapers.

Well, if the Giants had Eckstein, Byrnes, and Lowell instead of Vizquel, Roberts, and Feliz, they'd be contenders right now. The point isn't that they're bad ballplayers right now, but that they're terrible bets to retain their value. Just like, oh, Vizquel, Roberts, and Ray Durham.

by Grant Brisbee on Jul 23, 2007 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Fer sure. Rebuilding means getting guys whose value will rise, a la Billy Beane. Buy low, sell high, which seems to run counter to Sabes's's instincts.
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Grant, Re: <beating of a dead horse> In the future all references to beating said dead horse must include picture. Thanks, Whipping Boy
Just trying to keep the ball down.

by Whipping Boy on Jul 23, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Eckstein is a BAD baseball player right now...but otherwise agree with your post
one of the lunatics.

by TLF on Jul 23, 2007 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
In fairness to Sabean, I must point out that he is perfectly willing to sign savvy, scrappy players who happen to be black or Latino. Shawon Dunston, Tom Goodwin, Marquis Grissom, Neifi Perez, Deivi Cruz...need I go on?
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
>quintessential Sabean guys. Scrappy! Savvy!! White!!!

I know this was a throw-away, tongue-in-cheek comment, but it needs to be said:

Dave Roberts? Bengie Molina? Ray Durham? Randy Winn? Marquis Grissom? Omar Vizquel? Scrappy...savvy...not white.
 

Jesse Foppert: Welcome home, my son. And meet your adopted brother, Kelvin Pichardo. He's from the Dominican Republic.

by leftymalo on Jul 23, 2007 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I was being snarky fer sure. But only Dave Roberts really fits my "scrappy" profile -- no real ability but makes up for it with "heart" and "playing the game right" (i.e., a dirty uni).

Molina & Vizquel have god-given ability, Durham & Winn are massively underachieving, and Grissom is named after a sedan.

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Randy Winn Career: .285/.344/.421
Randy Winn 2007:  .294/.347/.417  
If you root for the Dodgers, the terrorists have already won.

by SF Pete on Jul 23, 2007 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Yeah, I wouldn't trade Lowry unless we got two bats who could be major-league quality by 08 or one possible superstar bat for him. I don't know if there's any GM out there that's stupid enough to make a trade like that. I mean, they've got to notice his ridiculously low HR-rate and his horrible K/BB ratio right? But 10 wins and a 3.5 ERA do look really nice, so who knows. Bill Bavasi did trade for Horacio Ramirez (and gave up a really valuable piece for him too.)

I would certainly trade both Lowry and Morris if we could get the right deals for them. Morris, obviously, won't be a part of the next good Giants team and I have a feeling his trade value isn't going to get any better over the offseason. Lowry is a tougher decision, but I just can't see how he can continue to be a good (or even an average) major league starting pitcher if he doesn't stop giving up a million baserunners a game. If some GM wants to give some valuable parts of him, you've got to do it, even if it makes the 2007 (and 2008) rotations a little weaker.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 10:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
and yeah, your second scenario seems pretty inevitable.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Not to mention his huge disparity in ERA at home in on the road. For his career

At home: 3.21 ERA
On the Road :5.03ERA

I just hope, that their are some GM's out their that don't look at his numbers to closely.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Jul 23, 2007 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
That just shows his value as Giant.  I hear they play half their games at home.    I think the Giants can wait on trading this below market Average starter that does pretty well at the Booth until they can get equal return value - just at (a) different position(s).

by kennv on Jul 23, 2007 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I have no comment on what Sabes will do.  I won't understand it, I won't like it, and it might work anyway.

Shipping Lowry and Morris pretty much depends on whether Sanchez is going to be a starter in 2008.
Cain-Lincecum-Sanchez-Zito-Mr. Scrap heap whomever is a rotation I would feel comfy with - if I had an above average offense to go with it.

Obv., we should only dump Lowry in a steal.

Actually - I think if we do trade both, we should get the 2 position prospects + some lower level high upside pitching prospects.

by zenbitz on Jul 23, 2007 10:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
That seems like a crazy-high price for Lowry. I think I'd trade him for any one of the six players you mentioned except Thorman. You really think he might fetch that kind of return?

by Evan on Jul 23, 2007 10:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
You really think he might fetch that kind of return?

No. But I don't think the Giants should trade him for less. At Lowry's worst, he's an underpaid league-average guy. That's pretty danged valuable. Trading him for a single position player prospect -- unless we're talking about a Ryan Braun or Adam Jones type -- isn't something I would do. Just because TINSTAAPP is burned into our brains doesn't mean the position players aren't as risky.

by Grant Brisbee on Jul 23, 2007 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
There Is No Such Thing As A Position Player.

Anyway, watching the Giants it sure seems that way.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Jul 23, 2007 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Bonds.
Does He play any OTHER positions?
Barry Zito: Not an embarrassment of riches , but a rich embarrassment.

by victor frankenstein on Jul 23, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
An underpriced league-average guy is plenty valuable in general, but how valuable is he to a team that's not likely to compete? Lowry is under contract through 2009, with an option on 2010. By my estimation, Nate Schierholtz is the only man in the entire Giants organization, majors or minors, with a reasonable shot at being a better-than-average major-league position player in 2009-10. Thanks to years of backloaded contracts, there's not going to be much wiggle room for the signing of elite free-agent hitters to make up for that void among the hitters. Since Lowry's underpriced years aren't going to push the club into competition by themselves, why not turn him into a young hitter with a chance at being a star a few years down the road?

This is leaving aside the question of whether Lowry is actually capable of being a league-average starter. He's not now, despite the wins and ERA. I'll leave it to the scouty types to offer opinions on whether he can get back to his 2005 form; but the numbers don't look good.

by Evan on Jul 23, 2007 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let me guess:
Exec 1 = Grant?

Exec 2 = Goofus?

Evidence: I believe Goofus is a father, and would know the cost and upkeep required on an 8 year old boy. Thus, he would be the exec that presents that information. As for Exec 1, well, he's certainly not Natto as far as I can tell. Ergo, Grant.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Jul 23, 2007 11:01 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Let me guess:
Iggy is proactive. We're talking about a totally outrageous paradigm. But we should rastafy him by ten percent or so.
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Lowry straight up for Salty and pitching some reclaimation project and I would be happy. Trade Morris for some kid with a shot at starting next season at 3B/SS/2B and I'd be happy with Lowry and Morris for 2 fourths of an infield. I only like this because I'm totally ok with putting Sanchez in the rotation. I think his tendancy to give up solo dongs will be much easier to handle over the coarse of an entire game. Its the downside of a guy that might K 15 guys every time out.
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 11:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
That and I'm ok with the Giants having one horrible starter(other than Zito). I think in this league nearly every team is forced to have one cannon fodder 5th starter. If you don't then you end up with an offense like the 07 Giants. Yay!
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

2/4
Please remember to reduce to the lowest common denominator. And don't forget to show your work.
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Is Lowry comparable to Garland?
According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, the Braves and White Sox have talked about swapping Edgar Renteria and Jon Garland.

A good team needs Big 3 of starters. In SF case that could be Lincecum, Cain and Zito. Then if either Sanchez or Misch pans out you got your #4 guy. Your #5 guy can come from a number of sources - minors, trade or FA.

I have no trouble trading Morris, if for nothing else to clear salary, though would try to package for a greater return. If Lowry is to be placed on this season's trade deadline market he would seem to be one of the most sought after pitchers. Young, LH and contact controllable.

by wilriv21 on Jul 23, 2007 11:19 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Is Lowry comparable to Garland?
I think Lowry is more valuable than Garland. He's younger, better, and cheaper. I wouldn't mind trading Lowry to the Braves for Renteria and a low-level prospect.

by giants92388 on Jul 23, 2007 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Is Lowry comparable to Garland?
If this trade is being seriously discussed, then the market for pitchers ought to be pretty sweet. Renteria's a viable MVP candidate and Garland flat sucks.

by Evan on Jul 23, 2007 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
The way things are going I don't see Lowry being on the next good Giants team either. In fact trading him might be the only way we see a decent team by 2010 compared to 2012. He is the only piece besides are two untouchable pitchers that could really get us something back that could help this team rebuild faster.

So yeah, unfortunately, I think trading both Morris and Lowry is a must but with Lowry you can be picky and Sabean better be damn picky.

by covenant on Jul 23, 2007 11:26 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I would trade both if I could get good players in return.  Isn't that the SF drafting strategy in the first place?  Draft lots and lots of pitchers and then trade some for hitters later on?

While it might be nice to have a rotation so solid that Zito is relegated to the #5 spot (where that worthless POS belongs), not being able to hit the ball means you are wasting all the quality starts given to you by the pitching staff anyway.

by War on Jul 23, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
What's with everyone trying to trade for a catcher? We've got holes at third, short, second, first, one of the outfield slots and relief pitching. Bengie's been one of our most consistent players offensively and defensively.

by BradIsMyBrother on Jul 23, 2007 12:01 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I haven't necessarily advocated trading for a catcher, but Benjie has NOT been consistent in the second half, either at or behind the plate. he's also old, and not part of the future. so while there may not be a hole there now, there will be one there soon enough.
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Bengie's been horrible defensively and other than May, pretty bad offensively.

He's hitting .271/.291/.408. 82 OPS+. That's not good. Not even for a catcher (average NL catcher is hitting .254/.311/.384). He's only going to get older and, probably, worse.

I would love to acquire a young catcher like Salty or Clement if we could.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I'm Iggy the rockin' cousin, everyone!  I'm happy to be a part of this rockin' blog!

Catch you on the flip side, dudemeisters!

NOT!

And remember, always recycle...TO THE EXTREME!

by Iggy on Jul 23, 2007 12:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
ITCHY
Hi, Iggy. You look like you've got something to say. Do you?

IGGY
Yes, I certainly do! I have to go now. My planet needs me.

"Note: Iggy died on the way back to his home planet".

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Can't Correia go back to the rotation?

by lunaticfringe1 on Jul 23, 2007 12:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I don't mind trading Morris but would not trade Lowry at all unless it was for a stud bat.  Zito aside, in Lowry/Cain/Enchanter we have what may be the best young threesome in the league, and the best since the early 90s Braves.

Lowry is cheap and getting better and lefty.  Why the rush to trade him?

by positiveuphemism on Jul 23, 2007 12:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Is Lowry getting better, though?  His K/BB ratio is rapidly declining and there's no sign of it improving.

Trading him now might be best, because he probably has some awesome value, instead of a few years from now, when he's pitching even worse.

Brian Anderson: generic name, unique talent.

by JT Jordan on Jul 23, 2007 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
agree, except changes "years" to weeks."
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Well, if by "weeks" you mean 7 to 8, as you can't really say Lowry will decline during August.  It's unpossible!

by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I agree. I think the K/BB is a huge red flag and it's time for the Giants to sell high on a pitcher for once, rather than wait for his ERA to catch up with his other numbers and end up trading him for LaTroy Hawkins or similar.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I'm not adverse to swapping both Lowry and Morris if we get a few good players in return. Unfortunately Sabean is more Mr. Bean than Billy Beane (c wut i did thar?1), so I don't think it could be done, especially since it seems like the trade market is stingy this season. If it came to trading either Matty Mo or Noah, I'd go with the former in a heartbeat.
Barry Bombs gear | comics | Ray Ray makes 'em pay.

by Natto on Jul 23, 2007 12:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I say we trade Lowry and Winn to Seattle for Balentien and Clement.  We can send them cash to help pay for Winn if neccessary.  Winn is an upgrade over Ibanez and will help them in their pennant push.

Then we trade Morris to Tampa Bay for their 3B prospect Evan Longoria (AA).

Then the future looks bright...4 years down the line...

C - Clement
1B - Villalona (not a good defensive 3B)
2B - Frandsen
SS - Noonan
3B - Longoria
LF - Balentien
CF - Lewis
RF - Scheirholtz?

I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 12:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Questions are:

Does Winn want to go back to Seattle?  

Does Seattle even want Winn back, discounts included?

by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
If they don't want Winn then maybe they would go for Correia or Hennessey.
I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
And another question:

Why would Tampa Bay want Matt Morris?

"Obviously, he hasn't watched Tom Emanski's "Defensive Drills". It's endorsed by Fred McGriff, you know."

by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
And for their first round pick (third overall) from last year?

by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Well, DePodesta got Baez from them for two shitty Single-A guys a few years back.

Who knows?

It wouldn't be the first time that kid over in Tampa Bay took another bong rip and traded away half of his talent.

"Obviously, he hasn't watched Tom Emanski's "Defensive Drills". It's endorsed by Fred McGriff, you know."

by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
you say it like taking another bong rip is a bad thing.
"...and I hope you're feliz now..."

by The Gene Hackman on Jul 23, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Villalona is only 16 years old. For all we know, he'll develop into a Gold Glove 3B. Not that he actually will, but it's difficult to make any concrete judgments about him at the moment.
Barry Bombs gear | comics | Ray Ray makes 'em pay.

by Natto on Jul 23, 2007 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Oh boy, that Morris trade would never ever happen in a million years.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1
What makes anyone think Tampa, a team that has never competed in a pennant race, would want a highly-paid, aging starter on the downside of his career who's only under contract for 1 or 2 more years (before they'll actually be any good)?

On the other hand, Lowry to TB does make some sense.

by English Professor on Jul 23, 2007 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: +1
It was just one person.  Simma down now.  

Simma down...

"Obviously, he hasn't watched Tom Emanski's "Defensive Drills". It's endorsed by Fred McGriff, you know."

by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: +1
I wasn't suggesting it was more than one person, just that that one person doesn't know what they are talking about.

by English Professor on Jul 23, 2007 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm BawLing with laughter
You couldn't trade Lowry straight up for Longoria, how could you trade Morris for him?

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Jul 23, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
We should trade Feliz for Pujols.

by xanthan on Jul 23, 2007 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Eva Longoria would look great in a Giants Unform, But she would look better with no uniform, or clothes for that matter.
Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Jul 23, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Lowry is simply morphing into Kurt Wesley Rueter - a pitcher you may remember who managed to win between 11 and 16 games a season for the Giants with marginal stuff and the uncanny ability to get himself out of self created jams.  I wouldn't mind keeping the reincarnation of Woody around - unless some other team makes us an offer we can't refuse.

by APGiantsFan on Jul 23, 2007 12:47 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Woody was pretty good for the Giants at times, but I don't think he would have won that many games a season if he wasn't on such good teams. And the Giants probably won't be that good for the next three or four years.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Kurt?

And to think I've been calling him Kirk for all these years!

"Obviously, he hasn't watched Tom Emanski's "Defensive Drills". It's endorsed by Fred McGriff, you know."

by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 12:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Either way, he'll always just be Buzz Lightyear to me.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jul 23, 2007 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Every time one of you guys says "shiny shiny", I get this cornball song stuck in my head.
Bruce Bochy gets his big head from me.

by Stuttering John Tamargo on Jul 23, 2007 1:35 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Speaking as someone who spent years trying to forget the existence of "John Wayne is Big Leggy", you have my sympathy.
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I think of this one
Steve Kline: He's pretty okay!

by groug on Jul 23, 2007 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Lowry is the only tradeable chip the Giants have that could return an impact position player. Going forward, how much better is he really than Misch? Folks that think he can maintain a 3.5 era with that K/BB rate are probably the same ones who were arguing that Zito was a special pitcher who could do the same.

by mxmob33 on Jul 23, 2007 1:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
From Goldstein's BP chat today.
kmdarcy (SunRiver, Oregon): What's your impression of the Mariners' OF prospects (Jones and Balentien) and Jeff Clement and their availability to, say, the Giants?

Kevin Goldstein: I'd ranking them Jones, Clement, Balentien, and from what I can tell, the Mariners want to make a deal, but they don't want to give up Jones or Clement at all, and only Balentien if it's a great deal.

Jones is untouchable and so is Clement probably. And I don't think we have a package that could land us Balentien.

Thoughts?

by xanthan on Jul 23, 2007 1:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I wonder if this is just a tactic to get us to give up more.  Lowry has been absolutely solid.  With the exception of last season and the injury problems, Noah has been consistently lowering his ERA.  Who knows where he will eventually plateau.  The point being, Lowry is much more of a guarantee then Balentien, and so we shouldn't be just throwing away everything to get him.  With that said, maybe toss in a position player or one of our prospects to get it done.
I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Frankly I'd rather target the Dodgers and go after Andy LaRoche. I know it's taboo to trade with them, but we know Ned's love for veteran savvy equals Sabes, 40% of their rotation's on the DL and for some unknown reason they seem to have soured on LaRoche this year. Send 'em Matty Mo while the getting's good. Heck toss in Pedro while we're at it

by Roger on Jul 23, 2007 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's hit 7 homers and 19 rbi the last 8 games
I don't think he's going anywhere now.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Jul 23, 2007 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: He's hit 7 homers and 19 rbi the last 8 games
Agreed.

They have a big hole at 3rd right now with Nomar having a down year and Laroche has been hitting the crap out of the ball lately. It doesn't make sense for LA to try and move him.

by xanthan on Jul 23, 2007 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I'd love to trade Lowry and Morris. I've been toying the idea lately, when I say I love it, I mean I love the idea of trading Morris and getting a fair deal on Lowry. Oh, and when I say "fair deal for Lowry," I mean "fair deal for a young starter with 10 wins on a last place team who's locked in awhile with a league-average reliever's salary."
I don't know if we have a legit 4th starter waiting in the wings though. Between Ortiz (if re-signed for cheap), Misch, Sanchez, Begg,  Hennessey and Correia (did I miss someone who could be solid/start showing glimpses of being solid next year?), are there two decent 2008 starters in there (who we won't keep in the bullpen instead)? I'd even deal with one and a musical 5th starter rotation next year. I just want to see PROGRESS next year, even if that's just young players struggling instead of old ones.
Here's what I'd want: An ML-ready position player, a solid prospect and a league-average reliever for Lowry, with you also taking Winn, Durham or (preferably) Roberts's's contract off our hands, and another ready prospect (and a 2nd lower prospect or cash) for Morris.
Why?
We're not going to be good next year with Winn/Roberts in the outfield or with Durham/Vizquel in the infield. The only one likely to be worth the money is Vizquel with a cheaper contract. I'm assuming Kline (or one of out younger relievers) will be dealt, and since one of our starters will probably come from our relief corps, we'll need one. These deals would give a chance for Frandsen and our bevy of potentially-league-average outfielders to develop. I want Lewis and Schierholtz to get 150 AB's a piece the rest of the year and 350 each next year. Lewis has been slow to develop through the minors, so don't pull a Giants and expect him to magically turn into his ceiling (Roberts?) overnight. But the idea of giving prospects a chance to play regularly is not taught at the Brian Sabean School Of Signing Scrappy Veterans Past Their Peak And Expecting Them To Make A Playoff Team.
I'd actually (in addition to? or part of the above? I don't care.) really like the Giants to go fetch Pena from Boston. They're looking for a 4th outfielder, maybe they'd take Roberts (and not need us to pay his salary). Pena even THIS YEAR would be quite a boost - spelling Bonds when he sits and starting the other days in right, with power (another foreign concept to this team).
Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans. Randy Messenger: Better lucky than Benitez.

by jasomack on Jul 23, 2007 1:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
I meant to mumble some gibberish about payroll flexibility too, actually it was going to be quite eloquent.
I shouldn't of put "Why?" in there either. I didn't really give much of a why. Payroll flexibility, room for prospects to develop, younger team, we'll probably develop some more pitching the next couple years, blah blah blah.
Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans. Randy Messenger: Better lucky than Benitez.

by jasomack on Jul 23, 2007 2:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Just two general comments:
1)Deals that don't make sense today to teams like Seattle and Atlanta may well make sense in the last hours before the deadline, depending where they are in the standings and who is left on the table. The Giants should drive a hard deal on young, cheap players like Lowry while taking almost anything for older more expensive players like Morris.
2)It's hard for me to know how I really feel about Lowry without knowing more about how smart he is -- he is at a stage where some pitchers who are hard workers and good learners continue to add pitches and go above what looked like their ceiling to folks like us. I'd trade him for a top-notch catching propect or a five-tool triple A infielder or outfielder, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him still around winning 12 to 18 games a year a decade from now. My biggest fear is that Zito ends up as the Lowry some of you foresee for 2009-10 rather than Lowry himself.

by NearestNorwich on Jul 23, 2007 2:15 PM PDT reply actions  

The Alter of Sabeanth Day Adventist
You know something to keep in mind here is Sabean and his M.O.  It is all nice and fuzzy to dream about the prospects we could net from trading our MLB vets, but I doubt it is going to happen.  Sabean is prospect-averse and I doubt that is going to change.  Not only has he avoided trading for prospects in the past, but he has always brought along Giants position prospects(?) at an incredibly slow pace.

I think the trades we will see will be similar to trades Sabean has made in the past.  Trades that brought in players like Kent, Snow, Schmidt, Nen, Burks, Lofton, Livan, etc - established MLB players.  

I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing.  Certainly, Brian's trading record has stunk lately.  Perhaps with the vapors of "contending" gone, Sabean can bring back real players of worth, just as he has in the past.  Or perhaps, he won't.

But I wouldn't expect prospects.

-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 2:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: The Alter of Sabeanth Day Adventist
I nearly had a heart attack when I read on MLB.com that the Giants were interested in Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras and Odalis Perez.

Fortunately, though, that seems to be simply a case of MLB.com's writer completely misreading this Chronicle article which makes it clear that Contreras and Perez are alternatives to Morris in the trade market, and that Buehrle's extension strengthened the market from the sellers' perspective.

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: The Alter of Sabeanth Day Adventist
Woof, that really was a misreading. That guy spends less time on his writing than I do.

by Grant Brisbee on Jul 23, 2007 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

MLB players vs prospects
Sabean recently said he envisions making trades similar to the deals that brought Livan Hernandez and Randy Winn to SF. Yong veterans that will wear a SF uniform for years to come. Would not be surprised if he went for talent that was a few years younger and in a blockbuster deal that would send some SF vets along with SF prospects for a top young talent.

Sabean thinks, I agree, that with a strong pitching staff, solid defense, the yard they play in and a few bats, SF could surprise some people in 2008 and 2009. Sabean is not an idiot and I think he will have ample time to prove this.

by wilriv21 on Jul 23, 2007 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Hmmm, what about Chris Carter on the DBacks? He's 24 and has had two pretty great years in AAA in a row (note, though, that the Dbacks AAA park is pretty live.)

This year: .337/.397/.538, 14 HR in 398 AB, 40:46 BB/K ratio
Career: http://thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Chris-Carter.shtml

He's blocked by Conor Jackson and Rotoworld thinks he's probably not going to get a chance with Arizona. Do we have anything they might want in return for him? If he wasn't too expensive, he could make a decent 1st base stopgap bat, if not a longterm solution.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 2:32 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
It's a great idea.  Sabean would never do it.
Sabean Trek: The Search for 100 Losses

by ToddLindenHasAPosse on Jul 23, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
On the other hand, he reminds me a little too much of Ryan Shealy, who I really wanted them to acquire last July...
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Heh. Me too.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jul 23, 2007 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Would that be the Ryan Shealy who put up a line of .221/.286/.308 for they Royals before going on the DL at the end of June?

I think even Lance Niekro could match that production...

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Yeah, that was the point. :)
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Fortunately we didn't give Niekro a chance to prove you wrong...
I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Niekro was actually ahead of Shealy in at least one respect: he went on the DL on June 20th, while Shealy didn't go on until the 30th.
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
You know, everyone is ready to just give away lowry for a triple A player and think that is a fair trade.  Can anyone give me Lindens Triple A numbers in 2005, 2006?  If I remember correctly he was pretty much the best hitter in the minors and when he was called up he then proceeded to suck major ass.  I think we should push hard for an upton or crawford from tampa.  A player who is actually proven at the MLB level.

by SabeanSupporter on Jul 23, 2007 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think you misread
I'm sure she didn't mean to move Lowry for this guy, probably more like some kind of Misch + a AAA reliever move, probably not even Sanchez.

Also Todd Linden was far, far away from "the best hitter in the minors", you have to look at things in context. He was repeating AAA, he struggled before, age, I'm sure he wasn't in anyone's top prospect lists. Best hitter in the Giants minors maybe but that's like the Special Olympics.

I don't think anyone here objects to pushing for a Crawford or an Upton, but almost everyone here thinks Cain and Lincecum are untouchable. Therefore an upton or crawford is just not going to happen. Outside shot maybe of dealing Lowry + Sanchez + Sosa for Crawford maybe, but that's a pretty steep price and I still think Tampa could probably do better.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Jul 23, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: I think you misread
Yeah you're probably right, Id just love to a Crawford type player in a park like At&t.  I heard someone throw out a pretty interesting deal a while back. A Garko for Lowry + PTBNL swap.  It could work because martinez could move from C to 1b and then Shoppach could replace him at C.  Im just wondering if they would even do that, and if so what players would we have to include

by SabeanSupporter on Jul 23, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: I think you misread
Me! Me! I want Garko! And I've been saying that the Indians are going to have to move Martinez to 1B eventually anyway and Shoppach is the logical replacement at C. I'm assuming they'd want pitching. I'd trade Morris for Garko straight up; or Lowry for Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera, particularly if they'd take an expensive veteran off our hands as well (their choice, we help with the salary).
Your 2012 NL ERA champion: Sergio Romo

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Jul 23, 2007 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Where the hell did I say Lowry?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I like Carter a lot, but from what I've heard is that he's a future DH.  Plus, the D-Backs are entertaining offers for Conor Jackson . . .I think they like Carter a lot.

Joseph Koshansky?  I wonder how much power he really has.

Brian Anderson: generic name, unique talent.

by JT Jordan on Jul 23, 2007 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Way out there...
This is crazy thinking, but I'm throwing it out there anyway.

Lowry, Morris, Durham, Omar, Sanchez
for
Renteria, Kelly Johnson, Salty

Trades like this just don't seem to happen.  Too many marquee players.  But like I said, I'm crazy thinking.

-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 4:12 PM PDT reply actions  

Yup, too many marquee players
Renteria, KJ, Salty.

Anyway KJ makes a lot less than Durham, is a much better player and is under control for the next 4-5 years he ain't going nowhere. You pretty much just crippled the braves middle infield for Lowry and a reliever in Sanchez (who the Giants are terribly misusing/lowering value by not having him start).

I'm pretty sure Schuerholtz wouldn't take all those Giants players just for Salty and say Brent Lillibridge or Yunel Escobar, no way he does it with Edgar and KJ included.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Jul 23, 2007 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Way out there...
I don't see why the Braves would baseically switch infields with us when they are making a run at the Mets right now?
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Way out there...
Yes I know its only because the Mets have sucked serious donkey balls of late.
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Way out there...
OK, too much dreaming, but seriously anyone of those players would be a decent grab.  The Braves could use pitching and they have a surplus of infield prospects.
-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
You take our old guys + Lowry, we take your younger guys.  

by out machine on Jul 23, 2007 5:31 PM PDT reply actions  

pretty much
don't over think it ;)
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
Can't help it here--I don't like any idea that includes trading away Lowry.
"If I had played my career hitting singles like Pete (Rose), I'd wear a dress." Mickey Mantle

by getnby on Jul 23, 2007 5:40 PM PDT reply actions  

What about...
Wily Mo Pena guys?  I think we can get him on the cheap.  Any ideas?

by ZeeGerman on Jul 23, 2007 5:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Wily Mo is a larger version of Pedro Feliz, but without the defense. If Sabean brings him here, I'll know all is lost.

by smedley on Jul 23, 2007 6:57 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
Exactly!
Your 2012 NL ERA champion: Sergio Romo

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Jul 24, 2007 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I think you guys are over-valuing Lowry and Morris. These guys are not much more than league-average pitchers with little upside. I like Lowry, I really do, but if I'm, let's say the Indians, I don't want Lowry. There's nothing to suggest that he'll win big games down the stretch. I might be interested in Morris, but is he going to win big games in the playoffs? These guys carry too many question marks. The point is that the one truly valuable chip, a big time player in his walk year that is not going to be re-signed, is what ou need to bring in some talent. Like A-rod or Johan Santana or Miguel Cabrera.
I'm not saying these guys can't be moved, I just don't think you're getting a coveted player, that's all. Think about it from the other side, are you giving up a prized young player for Matt Morris or Noah Lowry? Besides, as it's been pointed out many times already, that's not Sabean's MO.

by smedley on Jul 23, 2007 7:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Again....
It depends on how coveted these players are.  And if I think I can make my team contend by significantly upgrading a starting pitching spot then I do it.

To think that some of these teams are NOT looking for guys like Lowry and Morris is absurd.

I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
I don't think everyone is completely overvaluing these two.  Morris has been one of the most oft named pitchers in trade rumors of late.  It's not because he's great, it's because he is possibly the best of what will be available to teams wanting to pick up pitching for a second half run.  There are teams who could benefit from the addition of either pitcher.

Put yourself in the Mariners position:
You are contending for the first time in years.  Would You rather depend on Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez or would You like to take a chance on Morris (especially since Morris is going to be making a little more than average money for an average starter in 2008)?

-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Again....
If you're the Indians, you're paying Paul Byrd $7 million this year.  Noah Lowry is making slightly more than that over the next three years combined.

So yeah, you probably want that.

Steve Kline: He's pretty okay!

by groug on Jul 23, 2007 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

LOLrus
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

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