Jake Rates The Draft

Well, it's your favorite (or least favorite, depending on your affinity for precipitation and/or Dustin Hoffman) writer of novel-length opinions and I thought I'd chime in with my two cents on the draft, or, more specifically, the first six picks because, let's be honest, those are the ones that really matter.

#10 overall - LHP Madison Bumgarner
DOB: 08/01/89 (age 17)
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 19th best overall draft prospect, 9th best pitcher.
Sickels: Ranked as the 5th best pitcher.

Tools: A fastball that has clocked anywhere from the low-to-high 90s, I'm guessing Giants scouts see it ending up sitting on the high end which seems entirely possible given his age and size. A changeup that seems to be liked by scouts but has not been very used and a breaking ball that so far ranks as fringe-average at best as he has only been throwing it for a year. He has high marks for athleticism (something I like) and stamina, so combining those with the fact that he hasn't thrown the breaking ball much I'd guess he's as low an injury risk as a 17-year-old pitcher can be. The breaking ball is definitely the biggest knock against him as he'll have to develop a significantly better one to make it. With his arm slot (3/4), I'm not sure if the Giants will teach him a curveball or a slider (his current pitch is supposed to be very slurvy) but I defer to their judgement in that regard as I am definitely not a scout. Interestingly, Dick Tidrow is quoted as saying that he thinks Bumgarner will move very quickly, which surprised me a lot because that's the opposite of what I've heard.

My take: At the time I was very upset, but I've come around a lot on him. He's not who I'd have taken (I wanted Mills, and I preferred Aumont to him on the pitching side) but only time will tell whether he was the best pitcher on the board as the Giants were clearly planning to go that route. Apparently this was the guy Logan White and the Dodgers wanted, and that's worth a lot in my book. He's definitely a guy who is going to take a lot of time down in the minors to be ready, but Keith Law (whose opinions I respect) sees him as a good #2, and that's worth the wait.

Verdict: 4/5 stars - he's not a Lincecum, but he's not Daniel Moskos (God I'm glad I'm not a Pirate fan.)

#22 overall - RHP Tim Alderson
DOB: 11/03/88 (age 18)
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 210 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 27th best overall draft prospect, 14th best pitcher.
Sickels: Not ranked in the top 12 pitchers.

Tools: An 89-93 fastball (although Goldstein said it could clock at 96, so I guess we'll have to wait til his minor-league debut to see), probably not quite enough to qualify as a power fastball but enough to be a solid offering. He also throws a curveball and changeup that aren't as polished but some scouts see them both as a potential plus pitches. His control is his biggest asset, while high school numbers are usually largely meaningless in this case the miniscule walk total and the scouts agree that he has excellent command. His delivery is described as "unorthodox" (he pitches only out of the stretch and from an unusual angle), but I'm willing to give the Giants the benefit of the doubt in this regard. Apparently some scouts see him as a reliever, but I'm not sure if this is just because of the delivery or if they fear for his health or stamina.

My take: Again, he wasn't the top pitcher I'd have liked to take at this point, but we'll just have to wait and see. The big turn-off for me is that some see him as a reliever - I really hope that the Giants really project him as a starter. Keith Law again likes the pick which is a meaningful endorsement in my book. He projects to move much more quickly than Bumgarner but his lack of a real power pitch limits his upside, more like a good #3/#2. The guy that springs to mind just from the scouting reports is Joe Blanton, and that's not a bad kind of guy to have. He's also got a scholarship to play at Oregon State, so it's possible he might not be signed. Keep in mind, with the new rules we'll get a compensation pick next year if he doesn't.

Verdict: 4/5 stars assuming the team sees him as a starter, 2.5/5 stars if they see him as a reliever simply because #22 would be a definite overdraft and overpay.

#29 overall - OF Wendell Fairley
DOB: 3/17/88 (age 19)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 draft prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: It's hard to get as much info on Fairley because he wasn't really expected to go this high, but I gather that he's a talented (some say as much as top 15 talented) player who is just incredibly raw because he's come late to baseball. There's also attitude questions, but that kind of thing rarely bothers me. He's drawn Carl Crawford comparisions, but that shouldn't make people assume he's anywhere near that kind of a prospect yet. He's the kind of guy who probably won't make many top prospect lists right away but if he starts performing well in full-season ball he'll climb quickly because of his tools. He's very fast and defensively is expected to be able to stay in center, which is very important. Overall, a good athlete who might not have seemed like a reach at this point in the draft without the off-field issues.

My take: I'm split. On the one hand, he's a high-upside pick, and I like that, but on the other hand he's definitely not who I'd have taken, and he's very likely a guy who would have been available in the supplemental round. San Francisco's scouts must really like him, but that doesn't carry nearly as much weight on the hitting side given the kind of hitters we've tended to draft. I'm not sure if money played a role in the selection, I hope it didn't, but it could have given that Bumgarner and Alderson are both going to be fairly expensive. It's also not necessarily a sure thing that he'll sign, especially as a two-sport athlete, but early signs seem to be optimistic.

Verdict: 4/5 stars, and that's a hard one to give. High-risk, high-reward also tempered by the fact that he may be a bit of an overdraft, but he's got the upside.

#32 overall - SS Nick Noonan
DOB: 05/04/89 (age 18)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 180 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 31st best overall prospect, 13th best hitter
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: Listed as a shortstop but nobody sees him there, he'll likely end up at second base because the arm limits him on the left side of the infield. He's a fast, good baserunner, and while not a burner is smart enough not to run into outs. He's athletic enough, but his bat is what makes him a high draft pick. He's a good contact hitter who probably isn't strong enough to be much of a power hitter with the most optimistic projections putting his ceiling at 10-15 homers annually, and he's considered to have a good eye, though not an outstanding one. Basically seems like a good pure hitter (any power he has is the product of his ability to drive the ball rather than raw strength) who projects as a leadoff or #2 hitter. He's polished for an eighteen-year-old, but will obviously need significant time in the minors.

My Take: I like Noonan a fair amount but he's really not a high-upside guy and the fact that he's not a shortstop at the next level hampers him (although second base isn't exactly a loaded position either). The Giants have also had trouble developing guys like him (see Sanders, Marcus) but it's hard to really assign blame for those kinds of things. Also, again, there were a number of guys left on the draft board who I'd rather have had, and I think money definitely played a role because the Giants did like Julio Borbon. If that's the case it really irks me - developing players from within in essential for a good team so being willing to throw so much money out there in free agency and not the amateur draft is, IMO, a terrible way to do things.

Verdict: 3.5/5 stars -  He's more than Kevin Frandsen, but not enough more to get me excited.

#43 overall C Jackson Williams
DOB: 05/14/86 (age 21)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: The Giants saw him as the best defensive catcher in the draft but I don't think that was necessarily the consensus opinion. He's definitely a plus defensive catcher, but other than that I don't know anything about him other than the fact that nobody saw him going high enough to warrant much of a scouting report.

My Take: I'm assuming the Giants didn't feel that Mitch Canham could stay behind the plate, but there are a ton of guys I'd rather have at this spot. Yasmani Grandal, for one, is listed by Kevin Goldstein as the best defensive player in the draft and has more offensive upside. On a team with a good reputation for scouting hitters you might be inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, but the Giants really haven't even come close to earning that kind of deference. Unless scouts that aren't on the Giants payroll start saying good things about this guy I can't say I'm impressed. He wasn't on any sleeper lists I'd read, and honestly, I'd never even heard of the guy before his name was called which doesn't bode well for a #43 overall pick. I disagree with the idea that the Giants had to draft a top-flight defensive catcher because they drafted the two pitches first - very few pitches have regular, much less excellent catchers in the minor-leagues and I've never heard of it having any effect on their development. Even then, Grandal ranks very highly defensively and much better with the bat.

Verdict: 1.5/5 stars - Justin Jackson, who was picked next, would have warranted a 5/5 from me here too.

#51 overall SS Charles Culberson
DOB: 04/10/89 (age 18)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 185 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: Again, a guy who nobody had going this early and on whom information is very hard to find. From what I've gathered he's another guy who probably won't stick at shortstop, projecting instead as a second or third baseman. Hopefully in the next few days more information will become available.

My Take: I don't know enough about this guy to judge him, but again he's a guy who was on nobody's top prospects lists while a number of guys who were on everybody's were still around. I'll withold judgement for now, but it doesn't look good.

Verdict: N/A

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Overall, I was disappointed, and I don't want that to seem like more damning praise than it is. The Giants had a pretty good draft, I wanted a very good draft. We had a chance to really re-tool our farm system, especially if we shelled out the big bucks for some signability issues, and instead we just had a pretty good draft. I like Bumgarner and Alderson (again, provided the Giants see him as a reliever), I cautiously like Fairley, and Noonan is okay, but the last two supplemental picks do absolutely nothing for me. They were both reaches and guys that the consensus scouting report on was underwhelming, which might not hold as much water if we were talking about the Braves, who excel at scouting, but when we're talking about the Giants you have to wonder if these were financially-motivated picks. I get that six first-round picks costs a lot of money but I absolutely disagree with the idea that throwing around the kind of money San Francisco does in free agency is anything closer to a better investment than spending that money on draft day. Basically, I think the Giants had a good draft - there were certainly teams that did worse (the Pirates and Twins really spring to mind) but there were teams that did better, and with the kind of hopes I had, that's enough to disappoint me. I like it a bit less than Keith Law, but not a lot less.

Overall Rating: 3.5/5 stars (4/5 stars for the first round, 2/5 stars for the supplemental)