Adam Dunn Anyone?
Padres dreaming of Dunn
Dye would be a logical fit for the Dodgers or Padres, and the Padres also are eyeing Reds left fielder Adam Dunn. Acquiring Dunn would be a risk -- he becomes a free agent at the end of the season if he is traded -- but that doesn't bother the Padres.
The Reds' price tag, however, probably would.
Dunn is their biggest chip, and the Reds would be excoriated if they traded another offensive part for bullpen help after sending outfielder Austin Kearns and shortstop Felipe Lopez to the Nationals in such a deal last season.
The emergence of right-hander Justin Germano theoretically could make righty Clay Hensley available, but the Padres will need to be careful -- they've got two 40-somethings in their rotation, righty Greg Maddux and lefty David Wells, plus oft-injured righty Jake Peavy.
A right-handed hitter probably would be the best fit for the Padres, but Dunn is one hitter whose power is big enough to overcome pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6885404
If Clay Hensley is enough why wouldn't Jonathan Sanchez be enough?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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82 comments
Comments
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by Lyle on Jun 5, 2007 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 5, 2007 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by Aadik on Jun 4, 2007 10:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
Really, the thing most memorable about that article is the first time I've ever seen a sportswriter use the word "excoriated."
by JakeS on Jun 4, 2007 10:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by JakeS on Jun 4, 2007 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
My mancrush on Adam Dunn is well-documented. However, if we put him in right field, we will be LOSING production from Randy Winn. Dunn is that bad of a fielder. If we put him at first base, where he belongs on an NL team, the UZR data suggests he's a terrible defender there, too, about as bad as he is in LF, and he could actually be a full win worse with the leather than Klesko over the course of a season.
With the bat, Klesko's true performance level is somewhere around 70 RC, and Dunn's is somewhere around 100. So, Dunn is three wins better with the bat and one win worse with the glove, meaning that, over the course of an entire season, Dunn is worth about two wins more than Klesko, but only if he plays 1B. That's significant, but the roster implications don't help matters, and replacing Winn with Dunn is a non-starter, so I don't see it happening.
by David Arnott on Jun 4, 2007 10:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
And about 10x as expensive. Couldn't the Giants use the extra money to find others who make up the win differential?
by leftymalo on Jun 4, 2007 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by David Arnott on Jun 4, 2007 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by jponry on Jun 4, 2007 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by David Arnott on Jun 5, 2007 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
Can you expand on this? My hunch is that guys who hit a lot of towering flyballs, like Dunn (and like Bonds) are the sort of power hitters who would be least hurt by our park.
by Evan on Jun 5, 2007 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by Chulk on Jun 4, 2007 10:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
We would definitely have to have some assurance that we could sign him longterm though before making any trades.
by jponry on Jun 4, 2007 11:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Even Crazier Idea!
Ken Griffey to play RF (must waive 10/5 no trade rights)
Adam Dunn to play 1B (must waive option to void 08 Team Option with this trade)
4 bottom of the pile 40 Man Roster Bodies
Reds Get:
Matt Morris to join Rotation
Jonathan Sanchez to join Rotation
Steve Kline to join Bullpen
Ryan Klesko to join Outfield
Fred Lewis to join Outfield
Daniel Ortmeier to join Outfield
Choice of 2 non 40 Man Roster Prospects 20 year old or older
Resulting Giants 25 Man Roster:
LineUp:
Randy Winn CF
Ray Durham 2B
Adam Dunn 1B
Barry Bonds LF
Ken Griffey RF
Bengie Molina C
Pedro Feliz 3B
Omar Vizquel SS
Bench:
Dave Roberts OF
Mark Sweeney OF
Rich Aurilia IF
Kevin Frandsen IF
Eliezer Alfonzo C
Rotation:
Barry Zito
Matt Cain
Noah Lowry
Tim Lincecum
Russ Ortiz (Travis Blackley if Russ injured)
Bullpen:
Troy Percival (sign as Free Agent)
Brad Hennessey
Kevin Correia
Vinnie Chulk
Randy Messenger
Patrick Misch
Jack Taschner
by giantsrainman on Jun 4, 2007 11:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by ToddLindenHasAPosse on Jun 4, 2007 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by giantsrainman on Jun 4, 2007 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by ToddLindenHasAPosse on Jun 4, 2007 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by Lyle on Jun 5, 2007 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
Griffey? not as much, but he walks enough.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 5, 2007 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by jponry on Jun 4, 2007 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by groug on Jun 4, 2007 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by giantsrainman on Jun 4, 2007 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by jponry on Jun 4, 2007 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
And his trade value has certainly diminished, but I am 99.9% sure we're not going to trade for him. And I don't see any reason to think he's learned how to play and stay healthy...
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
I must take umbrage with your assertion that Griffey's offense makes up for his atrocious defense. By BPro, he's been worth only 1.7 wins above a replacement player thus far because his defense is so terrible (around the same (-7) as his UZR rating.) Over a full season, he only projects to be worth 4.8 - not a bad number, but not a good one either. You underestimate the importance of defense to a player's value.
As for Bonds, he's actually been average to slightly below average on defense the last few years by most accounts. Not an asset, but not a liability either.
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
I'd rather have Manny Ramirez as our designated right fielder than Griffey's bat and glove on the Giants.
Why don't we try to lure Eric Davis out of retirement while we're at it. Or maybe Joe Morgan--he had some of his best years in the booth when he was with us--and he did hit that homerun that time.
Dunn for Sanchez isn't bad as long as we can work out a long term deal with Dunn before the trade.
by noahthek on Jun 5, 2007 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even Crazier Idea!
nah.
by zenbitz on Jun 5, 2007 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a Dunn too, and I'll pass...
Well I got too busy and haven't had the chance to do it. One day I will go through the scratch and post my findings. What I can say, is that the majority of lefties see a significant decline in power numbers at AT&T.
There are exceptions (I think I remember these correctly):
Chad Tracy
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey
Barry (of course)
Adam Dunn has not done well. His AT&T AB's are a very small sample size, but the larger sample seems to indicate that most lefties lose power, especially HR in our park.
I have considered what element it is that gives some lefties success here over the vast majority. Seeing Barry hit here with more frequency than any other power lefty gives a little indication. Could the two important factors be:
The willingness and power to hit HR's the other way.
The tendency to hit line drive home runs to left over high, arcing HR's.
I haven't seen Tracy and Edmonds hit enough to say that they would fit this mold. Griffey, who has hit well here (very small sample) does fit the profile of a line drive HR hitter.
It's just specultaion, though. I can't really say with sincerity that this is it. It seems to fit with my (incomplete) observational data.
Nonetheless, I would be very hesitant to bring in Adam Dunn. The guy walks a ton, but his true value lies in the ability to get on base AND hit the bomb. If he were to lose some of that power, I think we would definitely be overpaying on him.
Now that I have put forth all that, Klesko had bad numbers at AT&T before this year. But now he seems to be enjoying it tremendously (more small sample). In fact, his numbers at home are significantly better than his road numbers (which are bad, stinky bad). He only has one homer at AT&T but he also has only one on the road and it could be an indication that he is just plain losing the power to hit HR's in general.
Still, if management goes after power LH, I think they really, really should consider park factor. Myself, I'll pass on Dunn, thanks.
by thatdog on Jun 4, 2007 11:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: I'm a Dunn too, and I'll pass...
Sanchez and Morris with some throw ins should fetch something interesting and useful.
by thatdog on Jun 4, 2007 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone says this over and over
Also please don't say something like Teahen or Crawford. We've heard enough of that already.
by awesomer on Jun 5, 2007 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 5, 2007 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by Punch Rockgroin on Jun 5, 2007 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by kwyjibo on Jun 5, 2007 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by Aadik on Jun 5, 2007 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by Aadik on Jun 5, 2007 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
By the way... all Rosenthal said was: "The emergence of right-hander Justin Germano theoretically could make righty Clay Hensley available,"
That's all. I'm sorry you're reading more into his statement than you should be.
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
I understand that it is just human nature to attack that which you find different and do not understand.
Yes, I am by nature a contrairian (I am not going to bother to look up how to spell this correctly). To me you just can't come to a truely logical and dispassionate point of view with out being able to consider that the other point of view might be right. Believe it or not, I do accept that opinions contrary to mine might be right and in some cases (maybe even most cases) probably are right. But, until I am convinced by logic and facts rather then emotions and attacks I will continue to voice my contrary opinions so that all can hear both the popular view and my contrary view. Even if some choose to belittle my views and give them now weight, even if few find them entertaining or informative, I find the discussions they lead to (when stripped of emotion) both entertaining and informative and that is why I am hear posting.
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
Well, the debates I enjoy quite a bit. The squabbling I find kind of tiring.
I am pretty tired, too. What am I doing up at 1:25 in the morning, anyway??? It's not like I have any papers I'm putting off anymore since I finished school (and thank God for that). I'm going to bed.
by howtheyscored on Jun 5, 2007 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 1:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by jponry on Jun 5, 2007 1:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
by JakeS on Jun 5, 2007 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You may personally think this
(Now of course these aren't the metrics I like but we're talking about dealing with Krivsky here, guy's a grade A moran. Felipe Lopez + Austin Kearns for Gary Majewski and Bill Bray? HAHAHAHAHAHA)
Sanchez on the other hand was for all intents and purposes a reliever, and posted a 4.95 era with opponents hitting .257 off him.
Obviously this means Hensley > Sanchez.
*This isn't too serious a post, I don't want to look up too much tonight but there are a bunch of other reason Hensley is probably better than Sanchez.
by awesomer on Jun 5, 2007 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Everyone says this over and over
What I consider for a trade like that is trading these guys as a part of a package for a young talent that has yet to hit the major leagues. It would have to be someone on the cusp. Joey Votto is intriguing to me, but there are a couple of problems with this:
The Reds have no incentive to do this. Dunn could leave Cincy and Votto could fill 1B. Cincy isn't really dying for someone like Morris.
Contenders who may be looking for pitching don't seem to have the kind of players of which I am thinking (at least on the surface).
Regardless of those issues, I think it is in the team's interest to target guys like Votto. To make that deal, it would proabably take a package of Morris, Sanchez, and throw-ins. In return, the Giants receive "a guy like Votto", and throw-ins. The throw-ins would need to have some value to the team trading with the Giants (ie bullpen arms, defensive ability. etc).
I keep saying "guys like Votto" because my minor league knowledge is pretty much limited to the Giants. As stated before, the Reds do not have incentive to move Votto. Also, if You read my post above, I'm not sure about bringing lefty power hitters. But if You want more names:
Brian Barton - Cleveland. Would probably take less than what I suggested above, a little further away in AA.
Josh Fields - Sox may not be interested in SP. I've heard others here talk about Fields.
Billy Butler - Would command a lot.
Chris Shelton - By the trade deadline, Detroit might be very interested in both a starter AND a closer. I don't think it would take both to get Shelton.
I'm not expecting something crazy good in return for Morris and Sanchez. Wouldn't we all love to have someone like Alex Gordon or Ryan Braun on the team. Realistically, I think we can fill a void at one of the corner postions more than adequately with such a trade. Whaddya think?
by thatdog on Jun 5, 2007 2:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry if it seemed I was attacking you
I think some of these names are much more realistic then what was mentioned before. I agree that Votto and Butler are going to be damn near impossible to get, I'm not sure either team would take Cain or Lincecum for them at this point.
After Crede's struggling this year, I think the Sox are almost surely going to pass on him as a FA, and Fields will probably step in there.
Haven't heard much about Barton, and I think Shelton is a realistic goal as the Tigers seem set to give Marcus Thames 1B in the future as their OF is pretty crowded. I do agree with what it would take for him, and I think it is a pretty attainable goal for the giants.
by awesomer on Jun 5, 2007 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sorry if it seemed I was attacking you
If the Tigers are using Thames at 1B, I have to believe that they have little faith in Shelton.
Shelton really tanked after a hot start last year, so pitchers may have figured him out. I can't say for sure, but the Giants probably have some sense as to whether Shelton is some kind of answer or another Lance Niekro. I would bet that Shelton is available for some bullpen help - unfortunately, that isn't out strong suit, is it?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by ToddLindenHasAPosse on Jun 5, 2007 12:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
Adam Dunn has an option that voids if he is traded before 2008, so if you trade for him, he is a rental for the rest of the season. After two years of being a 6.5 WARP players, he had a 3.7 WARP season last year, and is on pace for a 3.9 WARP season this year. Granted, that probably goes up a bit if he moves to 1B, because he is bad and getting worse in the OF. To re-sign him, it will probably take at least $15m/year and probably more.
Adam Dunn is, by all accounts, lazy, unwilling to work on defense, and not particularly devoted to conditioning. But would he help the team? Absolutely. There are some good reasons to think about Dunn, though. Depending on what it would take to get him, you would end up with a big bat in the middle of the order, which this team desperately needs. You also end up with a Type A FA at the end of the year, so if you don't sign him, you get compensation picks. He also only makes $10.5m this year, 1/3 of which has been paid, so he is a relatively cheap boost if you acquire him this year. If you do re-sign him, he can stick at 1B and learn the position, and he is one of relatively few guys in the league with the great power to beat the RF wall.
It all depends on how much you have to give up. The Reds aren't a contender and probably don't want Morris. They would want Sanchez, but I think a lot of people are overrating Sanchez's trade value. Maybe Lowry and Sanchez and some other minor-leaguers could get it done, but I am really not sure how much the Reds want to get rid of him.
BTW: Giantsrainman didn't start out too well, but he is trying to be a part of this community and has been decidedly less douche-y. Maybe people could give him a chance before jumping all over his posts? And Giantsrainman - you would do well simply to post your thoughts and argue your points without saying "ANTI-SABEAN BIAS ANTI-SABEAN BIAS" every time someone disagrees with you - remember, that isn't a compelling answer to criticisms of your proposals.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 5, 2007 3:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Question for You
by thatdog on Jun 5, 2007 4:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Question for You
Sanchez and a lessor prospect should be all it takes.
Lowry to me is almost as untouchable as Lincecum or Cain. We would have to get an already in the majors and already showing signs of .850+ OPS bat that is just as far away from free agency and just as cheap as Noah for me to be willing to trade Lowry.
by giantsrainman on Jun 5, 2007 4:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by milesntrane on Jun 5, 2007 8:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 5, 2007 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
Pass.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2007 9:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jun 5, 2007 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 5, 2007 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
by zenbitz on Jun 5, 2007 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Adam Dunn Anyone?
We already have Klesko, who I happen to think is the better player, particularly defensively. Even offensively I don't see much of an upgrade if Dunn were to replace Klesko:
Klesko BA OBP SLG
07 308 383 477 in ATT
05 248 358 418 in Petco
career 281 372 507
Dunn
07 255 353 530 in Cinci
06 234 365 490
career 246 378 514
Maybe you trade Klesko for Dunn. But why would you trade away good pitching to get another Klesko to replace Klesko? Don't we have enough 1bmen?
As Teddy points out, there is somewhere around a 2 game improvement from Dunn, over the course of an entire season, and (if I recall correctly) using Dunn's bandbox numbers in comparison with Klesko's Petco numbers. Don't we lose the one or two wins Dunn gives us by having to replace a pitcher?
by allfrank on Jun 5, 2007 1:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't compare career numbers at this point
I'm fairly certain Klesko's not going to be near his .879 career OPS numbers, I think the Giants would be pretty thrilled with .825 to be honest. Right now his BB% is down quite abit and his OBP is up because of his unusually high BA tied to his .360 BABIP.
Klesko's numbers are also probably skewed this year because of his platoon splits, he has 104 PA against RHP as opposed to only 17 vs lefties.
I think Dunn overall would be a sizeable improvement over Klesko and for certain over Aurilia. Maybe the reds want Aurilia back? Kinda doubt it but by the way they screwed around with EE earlier this year who knows.
by awesomer on Jun 5, 2007 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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