And I Just Took His Spy...
The Lowry-as-trade-bait topic has been discussed quite a bit. It might not be beating a dead horse to bring it up again, but it has to be close. Like, my miner is right in front of the bomb protecting the dead horse's flag. The idea keeps coming up in the comments, though, and the speculated bounty for Lowry has been somewhere between Manny Alexander and Miguel Cabrera. The situation as I see it:
- Lowry is a fan-favorite, and the Giants would probably prefer not to trade him. Homegrown pitchers make the world go 'round. But if Lowry could bring a good young power hitter back in a trade, the idea has to be at least explored.
- Lowry is locked up until 2009 for total of $8M, and he has a $6.25M option for 2010. If Lowry has a league-average ERA for the life of that contract, he's insanely valuable in the current market. Every August we can see that he at least has the potential to be more than an average innings-eater. An above-average pitcher with that contract is doubly insanely valuable with sprinkles on top.
- After last season, other teams might not be convinced he will continue to be average in the short- or long-term. As such, the "insanely valuable" part doesn't really apply when calculating trade value. The other teams will not want to pay a premium in talent to acquire a question mark.
It makes sense to overvalue Lowry right now. The only thing the Giants have is pitching, and it would make sense to trade from a strength to improve a weakness, but it is worth it to find out if Lowry tops out as a comparison to Kirk Rueter or as a comparison to Mark Buehrle. That's the difference between a Jorge Cantu gamble and the start of a Carl Crawford package. And if Lowry does become an above-average pitcher, it might not be possible to get fair value back. The Giants would love to have that problem.
The risk is that Lowry devolves into a below-average pitcher or suffers an injury. That's a risk that's worth the reward for hanging on to him. No on Prop. 51...for now. Here are two links (a and b) to past Lowry trade threads if you just want to copy and paste your views, though his hot start might have changed your mind.
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63 comments
Comments
A seat for every butt
But Giants' management must know that for every Barry Zito, there is a Brian Sabean who values a pitcher at twice the insanity of his insane brethren.
by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 12:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: A seat for every butt
Noah will be making left hand turns and Earnhardt Jr. will be steppin out to the pimple every 5th day.
by E Ticket on Apr 24, 2007 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by someguynamedg on Apr 24, 2007 12:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by wcovington on Apr 24, 2007 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
One change in his peripherals is that he's keeping the ball on the ground a lot more than he used to. Hope he can keep that up.
by Evan on Apr 24, 2007 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by rocknjosie on Apr 24, 2007 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Short. Sweet.
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who remembers this song?
Sabes said to Noah there's gonna be a tradey-tradey
See you next year in (CLAP!) Tampa Bay-dy Bay-dy
Children of the Fog
by tk on Apr 24, 2007 12:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Who remembers this song?
by lyricalkiller on Apr 24, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Oh yeah, and I'm okay with trading Lowry if we get good value. I'm also okay with keeping him.
by EliminateMe on Apr 24, 2007 12:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
E-Me makes a strong stand on Lowry
by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to draw lines in the swamp...
But what opinions does the Greek chorus that is Moggeee hold?
by EliminateMe on Apr 24, 2007 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agamemnon Faces the Music
But If I had to take sides, I'd go with Cain-Zito-Lowry-Lince, and hope to win a lot of games 3-2 and 2-1.
Seems like the Dodgers did that a lot in the 60s, with a pitching dynasty: Koufax-Drysdale-Osteen-Whomever.
by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Agamemnon Faces the Music
by leewhee on Apr 24, 2007 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Agamemnon Faces the Music
by EliminateMe on Apr 24, 2007 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember When?
Pitcher's Interference.
by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hated Stratego
by Stuttering John Tamargo on Apr 24, 2007 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Sure, from our side Lowry is probably a league average pitcher. But look at how many young position players are thrown out on this board as trade possibilities that we salivate over, who realistically will probably turn out to be no better than average hitters. It's all about perspective.
by mxmob33 on Apr 24, 2007 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by Giant Voodoo on Apr 24, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really really
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by leewhee on Apr 24, 2007 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Give him 2 months. If he looks like '06 Lowry, I'm open to offers. If he pitches how we want him to: no freaking way.
Lowry/Cain/Linc/Zito will be the best starting 4 in the majors for the next few years at least.
Yes we need hitting, but with pitching like that you are a very very dangerous team. Good pitching is more important than good hitting.
by positiveuphemism on Apr 24, 2007 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by sfgfan on Apr 24, 2007 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I often think about that
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by Lyle on Apr 24, 2007 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Hope I've made my point. I was trying to add something to the conversation, but the Stratego reference threw off my equilibrium.
by Kitspool on Apr 24, 2007 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Casualties are Mounting
by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
We can assume Sanchez will be in the rotation, but I think that's a stretch with his health. We have to look at this in a longer term sense of things. Wanting to trade Lowry is like saying that for next year you want to purge three pitchers and only bring one back as a replacement (that's Linc), and considering Ortiz and Lowry's contracts, we'll almost definitely be putting a TON of extra money into those last two contracts (sorry, after Linc and maaaaybe misch, I just don't see much in the immediate farm system, so that means FA, and that means costly).
Keeping Lowry is showing good forsight for a payroll that is already highly invested and a rotation that doesn't have the depth everybody thinks it does without Morris or Ortiz.
by howtheyscored on Apr 24, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/
by trecole696 on Apr 24, 2007 1:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Lowry for Teahen. (As I've said before)
Lowry for Baldelli. (As others have)
Make it happen.
by lyricalkiller on Apr 24, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with this killer of lyrics?
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I'm not too concerned about depth. We have bat boy waiting in AAA, plus I still think Correia and (maybe) Hennessy could be an ok 5th starter. Biggest concern with depth is if Ortiz can't maintain adequacy.
by Poe on Apr 24, 2007 1:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You give
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: You give
by zenbitz on Apr 24, 2007 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
My sense is that you need to deal for a 3b-man or outfielder who will round out the lineup, since Feliz and Winn are the weakest links. But do you need to give up Lowry? Others have said only for a youngish slugger. But it'll be at least a month or two of quality starts from Lowry before other GMs will consider giving up a guy like Rios (and even then, we'll need to add to the package significantly).
It'd be tough to deal within the division, but I've been coming up with names like Chad Tracy or Garret Atkins lately. Would Morris fetch one of them? For those who think dealing a starter is worth considering, let's hear some names, or else it all stays too abstract.
by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 1:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I say let's hold off on the trade talk, especially as to Noah. This view is mostly based on the contract and that I think he is underrated by other GM's so we would have difficulty obtaining the kind of skilled hitter this team needs. We don't need another "veteran bat" like Winn, which is what we would get for the under-appreciated Mr. Lowry. Let's round up the usual suspects, starting with Geoff Jenkins. No thanks.
by out machine on Apr 24, 2007 1:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I would only trade one of our current 5 starters if it was some kind of ridiculous swindle - maybe solving 2 of RF/3B/1B holes at once - with guys who can really rake. Contract status would depend - like Lowry->Cabrera or Morris -> Arod.
Giants would have to come out ahead huge trading a SP, because when the inevitable injury comes, we immediately downgrade SP or bullpen or both, and give back at least some of the gain on offense.
It's not like this team (.500 or not) is on the brink of greatness. It's still 2 hitters and a bullpen short of solid. Come trade deadline time, lets see where we stand in the standings.
Finally - what if we trade one, bring up Link and the league goes all sidewinder on him and he's walking like 12/9inn. We have to send him down, and yay it's Corrieaennseychez time.
by zenbitz on Apr 24, 2007 2:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that our starting rotation is good enuf
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I meant starting rotation
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by WilltheThrill on Apr 24, 2007 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by out machine on Apr 24, 2007 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
BB
by BlackDougal on Apr 24, 2007 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Lowry is a young-league average SP with awful K-rates trends (2006), which do not really bode well for the future. I like him a lot personally - the idea of homegrown talent is more "fulfilling", as it were, but my favorite Giant isn't homegrown (Barry Lamar). If his K-rate trend in 2006 was a discrepancy,he's clearly worth a lot more than he is now. Contacting TB (with their preponderance of bats) makes sense, but I wonder if they want him without some assurance that he's back to the pitcher of 2004 and 2005. Heck, I think a more reasonable deal is to try and get Matt Murton from Chicago, and maybe get them to throw in a mediocre prospect.
by Aadik on Apr 24, 2007 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The A-rod and Cabrera comments
by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by groug on Apr 24, 2007 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by howtheyscored on Apr 24, 2007 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why rush?
Why were they called Miners? Why weren't the bombs called mines? Would have made a lot more sense. Regardless, Stratego was a great game. If they could somehow combine Stratego and Risk, you'd have a helluva game. What would the Giants Roster look like if you assigned Stratego roles to everyone? Well, we know Benitex is a bomb.
by MeSoKrabby on Apr 24, 2007 2:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Why rush?
That's a fun Saturday right there.
by lyricalkiller on Apr 24, 2007 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Why rush?
by MeSoKrabby on Apr 24, 2007 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As opposed to Barry, Cain, and Omar
by Stuttering John Tamargo on Apr 24, 2007 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Why rush?
by hometownboy on Apr 24, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Why rush?
by zenbitz on Apr 24, 2007 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
- 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
- 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
- 4.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
- 4.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 (small sample)
He's a useful starter, but the one thing the Giants have a glut of is pitching and Lowry's perceived value may be at it's highest point right now relative to his actual value. If we could get a youngish right fielder who can hit (not a star, somebody mentioned Matt Murton on another board, that seems like the right caliber player) I think we should pull the trigger.
by JakeS on Apr 24, 2007 3:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by JakeS on Apr 24, 2007 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by JakeS on Apr 25, 2007 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by Grant on Apr 24, 2007 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playin Junior G-Man is like
by E Ticket on Apr 24, 2007 5:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Clearly the guy to trade would seem to be Matt Morris. Matt is off to a very fine start which he is unlikely to keep up. Sure, he's a staff leader, but the Giants have a pitching coach, a bullpen coach and a starter they're paying $126 million. Yes, Matt is making a lot of money, but the Giants contract to Barry Zito and other teams' contracts to other pitchers have brought Matt's contract back into the ballpark, so to speak, as long as he performs at a slightly above average level.
I would think it would make sense to trade Noah only if the Giants truly were able to get a lot for him -- or at least a young player who also won't be expensive over the next few years but who has very good upside and already is performing at an acceptable level.
by sharksrog on Apr 25, 2007 6:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Is Klesko going to stay healthy? Is Aurilia going to keep hitting? Let's let it play out.
Bochy's use of the bullpen has been great (along with his faith in the starters.) Hope his magic touch stays. (Last year it would have been Morris out after 6 and right to Hennessey/Correia/Kline). I respected Alou but his quick hook was too much.
by williemays4ever on Apr 25, 2007 4:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
by BigO on Apr 25, 2007 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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