Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

by JT Jordan on Apr 22, 2007 4:08 PM PDT

I figure it's fitting to put something up about Matt Cain being so dominant as he nearly threw another 1-hit shutout today. Too bad it ended 2-1 with 3 hits allowed (I hate Byrnes at AT&T, don't you?).

There's a site that has created a formula to see how good of a chance a pitcher has of throwing a no-hitter:

http://www.robneyer.com/book_04_ExpectNoNo.html

Furthermore, the boys over at MLBTraderumors.com plugged in Matt Cain's career stats and came up with this:

"His chances of throwing a no-hitter in any given start are 0.27%. Not too bad! Nolan Ryan's chances in any given start were 0.35%.

So after figuring that out it's just a volume game. If Cain makes 100 career starts, we should expect 0.27 no-hitters. It follows that if he makes 364 career starts and maintains his hit rate, he should be expected to throw exactly one no-hitter. (Let's not get into his hit rate worsening after his peak right now).

Can Cain make that many career starts? I honestly have no idea, but it seems reasonable on the surface (about 13 seasons). John Smoltz is his top comparable, and Smoltz is at 429 starts so far. However, a lot of promising young guys never sniff 300 career starts. Browsing Cain's top ten comparables, only two have reached 300 (Smoltz and Andy Benes, although Josh Beckett has a shot).

Still, I think it's fair to say that over the life of his new contract, it's nearly a coin flip that Cain tosses a no-no."

Here's the link to this site: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/san_francisco_giants/index.html

I hope nobody else put this up before, or else I'll feel like an idiot. It's worth re-visiting, if that's the case. Anyways, I get the feeling Cain's got a better chance of throwing a no-hitter than 1 in 364 starts. But, who knows?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

i dont know about the no-hitter chances, but here's
Eric Byrnes on Cain today:

"His fastball has life to it," Byrnes said. "It has a giddy-up at the end. He's a different type of guy than Zito. He throws fastballs that register in the low 90s, and they appear a lot faster than that."

by slojoe on Apr 22, 2007 5:14 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

Now run the odds of Cain's arm falling off before #300...

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 22, 2007 5:15 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

His ass will prolly fall off first. Cainer built Ram Tough. 100,000 inning guarantee.

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 22, 2007 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

thasright.

My Adopted San Francisco Giant: Notgardo Alfonzo

by tk on Apr 22, 2007 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

His fastball is what makes him so great. He was ranked #2 in the NL last year in average fastball velocity, right behind brad penny. it was something like 93.4 MPH, penny's was 93.9.

Also helps when your curve is 80 MPH and is a straight 12-6, and your slider is 86-88 with a hard bite, and your delivery is deceptive. Can't wait to see the Cain-Lincecum combo . . . Prior and Wood don't have anything on those two.

I am the thinking man's thinking man.

by JT Jordan on Apr 22, 2007 5:36 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

Gah, don't even mention those Cubbies in the same sentence with C&L...

Adopting Dave Roberts since 2007

by hometownboy on Apr 22, 2007 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

I was at the game today. He was hitting 93 or 94 all day long. He was very consistent with the heater.

Free Tim Lincecum.

by nostocksjustbonds on Apr 22, 2007 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

Wood and Prior don't have anything on Lincecum and Cain except a proneness to injury.

by sharksrog on Apr 22, 2007 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

and the slider and curve are raw and will only get better. I don't want to jinx him, but considering how many fastballs he throw and his incredible strength, I don't see him hurting his arm.

Armando "Houdini" Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 284

by rxmeister on Apr 23, 2007 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Matt Cain's chances of throwing a no-hitter

Krukow said this morning that it was one of the rare times yesterday that he had all four pitches working, including the change. He also reminded everyone that Cain is only 22 and that he's not only going to continue to become more of a pitcher than thrower, but he's going to get physiacally stronger and have better stamina in the next couple years. He said half-jokingly said the Giants should sign him to a 12-year contract right now.

I think the no hitter is just a matter of "when" after seeing what he's done already at such a young age.

Ryan klesko eats pieces of $h!t like you for breakfast! 333/385/458 as of 4/20/07

by Goofus on Apr 23, 2007 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Keep the Carrot Dangling

A 10-year contract for, say $70 million makes about as much sense as 7/$126 million, which the Giants already have written.

And Zito's biggest selling point was his health, which Big Bull Cain has demonstrated from the moment he signed.

But the incentive currently in place -- for Cain to pitch four years and earn a big package for over $100 million on his next contract -- makes much more sense for Matt and the Giants.

by Moggeee on Apr 23, 2007 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Keep the Carrot Dangling

i'd add 10 years/$70 mil to Cain's contract today..
ive got a lot more faith in that being a bargain
than the 7/$126 deal fro zito...i dont think Cain
is all that motivated by the $$ anyway

by slojoe on Apr 23, 2007 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions